Thanksgiving NFL Preview: Titans vs Lions

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Tennessee was supposed to be undefeated going in to this game. Detroit was supposed to be without a win. We were supposed to see an undefeated team clobber a team without a win. Now we just have a really good football team taking on the worst team in the NFL. According to AccuScore simulations, that’s still good enough for a blowout victory by Tennessee.

AccuScore has simulated this game 10,000 times to find that Tennessee is winning 82.2 percent of simulations by an average score of 27-14. Kerry Collins is throwing for 197 yards and one touchdown, with an interception in just 40 percent of simulations. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are leading the Titans, combining for 142 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. Tennessee’s defense is sacking Daunte Culpepper four times and forcing three turnovers.

Culpepper is throwing for 181 yards, one touchdown, and is responsible for two of those turnovers with two interceptions. Kevin Smith is running for 81 yards on 18 carries, with Rudi Johnson adding 16 yards on four carries. Calvin Johnson is catching five passes for 77 yards. Detroit’s defense is only forcing one sack and one turnover against the Titans’ offense.

Chance of an upset?

A year after seeing a team go 16-0 in the regular season, we could see a team go 0-16 in the regular season. According to AccuScore simulations, the Lions have a 20 percent chance of losing their next five games to finish 0-16 on the season. Detroit seems destined to slip to 0-12 after Thursday’s game against the Titans, winning just 17.8 percent of AccuScore simulations. So what can the Lions do to avoid the embarrassment of a season without a win?

First, the running game is not working in Detroit’s favor in baseline AccuScore simulations. Chris Johnson and LenDale White are running all over Detroit, with both backs averaging over four yards per carry. If Detroit somehow manages to shut down Tennessee’s running game, holding the duo of Johnson and White to under 100 yards, they improve their chances of winning 25.8 percentage points in custom AccuScore simulations, with the average score being decided by less than a field goal.

In custom AccuScore simulations where Kevin Smith manages to top 100 rushing yards, Detroit sees an 18.9 percent increase in their chances of winning, with an average score of 24-19. When Detroit dominates both sides of the running game in custom AccuScore simulations, they swing the advantage to their side, winning 61.5 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-18.

Winning the running battle is easier said than done when talking about the Lions. An easier approach would be eliminating the four turnovers in baseline AccuScore simulations. In custom simulations where the Lions go without a turnover, Detroit improves their chances of winning by 26.8 percentage points, losing by an average of one point per simulation.

The Lions’ season, and their chances in Thursday’s game can be summed up by the following statement: Detroit has a better chance of going without a win in 2008 than they do of beating the Titans on Thursday night.

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Dougie said:

The may be able to beat blind girl scouts! smilies/cheesy.gif

November 27, 2008

GeorgeW. said:

Lose Lions, you never got to the Super Bowl and you never will!

November 27, 2008

Tameka said:

I stay right down the street and the LIons need to win. MY baby daddy bet on them every week and lose al his money. I nned them to win becuase I need me some money.

November 27, 2008