Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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It’s a new year, and already we can see a fresh start in fantasy football.  We not only have playoff fantasy football, which allows you to leave the memories of all of those Ryan Grant-led disappointments in the 2008 season behind, but Mike Shanahan is out of a job.

I was actually very surprised to see Shanahan lost his job, especially considering all that he did for the Broncos.  However, in the NFL, where teams change coaches about as frequently as Shanahan changes running backs, it’s not about what have you done, but what have you done lately.  So I guess if you ignore the past success and focus on the poor defense the last two years, you can make a case for Shanahan getting the axe.  I’ve always said this: never try to build a defense completely off of Cleveland Browns cast-offs.

Now I’m not one to celebrate over someone losing their job, but with Shanahan gone, it’s like the NFL has added an expansion team for fantasy football players.  Now there are 32 teams with starting running backs that you feel safe taking.  No more drafting a guy you’ve never heard of in the 11^th round, simply because he’s a running back and is 5^th on the Denver depth chart.  No more watching your starting Denver running back standing on the sidelines while that 5^th string running back puts up 100 yards on the field.  And if your running back actually gets to play, no more watching Shanahan on the sidelines with his crazy wide eyed stare while he probably thinks “I’m going to have that guy in row four as my starting running back next week.”

In the spirit of fresh starts, we leave those Mike Shanahan memories behind for now, and we leave the memories of those Ryan Grant grease fire teams in the past, and move on to playoff fantasy football.  The rules I play by are from ESPN.com, which is the following:

-$50.0 M to spend

-Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST, 1 K

-6 points per rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 points per passing touchdown

-1 point for every 10 rushing or receiving yards, 1 point for every 25 passing yards

-2 points for every passing, rushing, or receiving two-point conversion

-3 points per field goal made (any distance)

-1 point per extra point made

-No negative points for interceptions, fumbles, missed field goals, or lost yardage

-Defense gets 10 points to start, and loses based on points allowed (18-21 points allowed equals zero points)

-5 points for a defense if their team wins

-3 points per D/ST touchdown

-2 points per interception, fumble recovery, blocked kick, or safety

-1 point per sack

The Strategy

There are a few strategies you can go with in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.  First of all, there’s the big question of whether you want to add a player who has a first round bye.  The advantage is that you lock in that player when their price is lower.  The disadvantage is that you miss a week of stats at that position.  I don’t see many players who are worthy of that in the second round.  I’d take two weeks of Matt Ryan over a week of Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Jake Delhomme, or Kerry Collins.  I would consider Deangelo Williams or Brandon Jacobs, but with a low price for LaDainian Tomlinson, and guys like Peterson and Westbrook available at similar prices to Jacobs and Williams, I’d rather go with the guys who potentially have two weeks of playing time.

I would take the Arizona wide receivers, or Reggie Wayne before taking Steve Smith.  The top tight ends are in the Wild Card round.  The only exception is the defense, where two of the top teams, Pittsburgh and Tennessee, are in the second round.  Still, I’d rather go with the Eagles or Ravens in the Wild Card round, and switch over to one of those teams in the second round.

Next you have to decide what quality of player you will take.  Obviously you can’t load up on the top players due to the salary cap.  So do you take all second level players?  Do you take one sleeper, allowing you to afford the top players at every other position?  Personally I prefer to take the sleeper and load up at almost every other position.

A key factor in making your decisions is considering who will win the game.  You may think that Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers will provide a good starting quarterback combo in the first round, but you are guaranteed to be without one quarterback in the second round, and at that time the prices may go up on the other players, leaving you stuck with a Jake Delhomme or Kerry Collins.  This brings up two strategies: do you go all in on a few teams, loading up on the Arizona and Indianapolis passing games for example?  Or do you hedge your bets, taking players from different teams so that you don’t find yourself hopeless if Arizona gets shut down by Atlanta?

For help on the outcome of the games, check out our game forecasts, as well as the breakdowns by yours truly.

Ravens vs Dolphins: Forecast / Breakdown

Eagles vs Vikings: Forecast / Breakdown

Falcons vs Cardinals: Forecast / Breakdown

Colts vs Chargers: Forecast / Breakdown

Finally, there’s the most important aspect of picking your team: how will the players do?  Here are the top players for the Wild Card round, according to AccuScore simulations.  I have included their ESPN price, as well as a “Value” section.  This section calculates each player’s points per dollar, according to ESPN prices and AccuScore simulations.  So for example, if you’re paying $6.6 for Donovan McNabb, AccuScore projects you will get 2.37 points for every dollar you spend this week.  However, Tarvaris Jackson, while getting 1.47 points less than McNabb in simulations, is a much better value, getting you 2.72 points for every dollar spent.

Now that you’ve got your information, it all comes down to making your picks and hoping for the best.  As for me, I’m loading up on Arizona and Indianapolis, with the Eagles defense, and I can’t resist taking Tomlinson so low against the Colts defense, even with the questionable health status.  My value player is Edgerrin James, who is getting the third most points per dollar in AccuScore simulations behind Tomlinson and Peterson.  I also went with the Eagles over the Ravens to save half a dollar, which allowed me to go with Manning over Matt Ryan.  As for kickers, I usually take a value pick here, and Rackers certainly provides that value.  Unfortunately, if Arizona and Indianapolis get shut down, my team is pretty much sunk.  If they both dominate, I’ll be able to coast to a playoff fantasy football title.