Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

NFL WEEK 12

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh cannot look ahead to games against Tennessee and New England. If they are focused they should win by double digits. In AccuScore simulations they have a 62 percent chance of winning by double digits. Ben Roethlisberger has a simulation passer rating of 97 which is far better than Ryan Fitzpatrick who has a rating of just 68. Willie Parker has a 50 percent chance of having another 100 yard rushing day and in the Custom Game Simulator the Steelers win by 17 in these simulations. The weather could be a factor which favors the Steelers who can run effectively in bad weather. The Bengals are getting less than 2 ypc from Cedric Benson.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

Carolina actually has the slight edge pulling off the upset in 52 percent of simulations. Jake Delhomme and Matt Ryan are posting similar numbers with passer ratings slightly under 80. The running games are also neck-and-neck with both teams averaging around 115 rushing yards. A key to the game is the Panthers pass rush. If they have 3 or more sacks the Custom Game Simulator gives them a 69 percent chance of winning the game. If they have 2 or fewer sacks the Falcons win 52 percent of the time. The Falcons also have the edge if Michael Turner has a 100 rushing yards against the tough Panthers defense. The Falcons win nearly 80 percent of simulations where Turner goes for 100+.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Both teams are forecasted to run the ball well. Jamal Lewis has a 37 percent chance of rushing for over 100 yards and Steve Slaton has over 50 percent chance. If both RBs have big 100 yard games the Browns come out on top by 1 point, which is the same as the baseline forecast. The key to the game is turnovers. Sage Rosenfels is averaging nearly 2 interceptions per simulation. According to the Custom Game Simulator when he has zero or one interception the Texans have a 66 percent chance of winning. If he has 2 or more interceptions the Texans win just 32 percent of the time.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

Marion Barber is expected to have the bigger game than his star counterpart, Frank Gore. Barber dominated the Redskins last week and with Felix Jones not healthy he should get around 25 carries. He has a 54 percent chance of having 100+ rushing yards and according to the Custom Game Simulator, the Cowboys win 88 percent when Barber has 100+. With the 49ers expected to play from behind they will have to pass more and as a result, Frank Gore is only given a 27 percent chance of rushing for over 100 yards. If he does this the 49ers keep it close but still lose by an average of 1 point per simulation. Tony Romo is forecasted for a solid 250 yard, 2 TD performance in his second game back.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS

The Raiders offense 'exploded' for 15 points last week and they are averaging just 15 again this week against the Broncos. JaMarcus Russell is doing a good job limiting interceptions with just a 35 percent of throwing 1 or more interceptions. However, there is only a 46 percent chance Russell has even 1 touchdown pass. Jay Cutler on the other hand is averaging 1.5 passing TDs per simulation with 40 percent chance of having at least 2 TD passes. When Cutler has multiple touchdown passes the Broncos increase their average margin of victory from 8 points per sim to 12 points per sim.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DETROIT LIONS

With injuries to Earnest Graham and Cadillac Williams just coming back, the Bucs are relying on Jeff Garcia to play well and hand Detroit another loss. Garcia has a tremendous 106 passer rating in simulations. In fact, he has an 82 percent chance of throwing at least 1 TD pass which is more than twice as high as his 38 percent chance of throwing an interception. For Detroit to pull off the big upset they need rookie Kevin Smith to rush for at least 75 yards and Calvin Johnson needs 75 receiving yards. This only happens in 20 percent of simulations, but the Custom Game Simulator gives the Lions a fighting 42 percent chance.

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Jets recent success has largely been fueled by Thomas Jones becoming a dominant rusher after having just 1 TD last season. However, the Titans defense is forecasted to contain Jones who only has a 17 percent chance of rushing for over 50 yards with at least 1 TD. If Jones can have a good game the Jets actually become favored winning 57 percent of these Custom Game Simulations. The Jets defense is also playing well holding Chris Johnson to under 5 ypc, but the Titans duo of Johnson and Lendale White do combine for 130 rushing yards per simulation and over 1 rushing touchdown.

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The reeling Bills are favored this week, but not if Trent Edwards cannot keep his interceptions to no more than 1. In Custom Game Simulations where Trent Edwards has 2 or more interceptions, the Bills have just a 32 percent chance of winning. The Chiefs hope that Larry Johnson has another strong game. There is a 44 percent chance that Johnson has at least 75 rushing yards with 1+ touchdowns and if he does this the Chiefs actually win 67 percent of simulations. However, if Johnson is held to under 75 rushing yards the Chiefs chances drop from 47 percent for all simulations down to just 23 percent.

CHICAGO BEARS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams are breaking records for defensive futility. This week Chicago is getting excellent performances from Kyle Orton (nearly 2 to 1 TD to Interception ratio) and Matt Forte, who is forecasted for 120 yards on 25 carries. Forte is averaging more rushing yards per sim than the Rams top 3 rushers (Steve Jackson out). The Rams only have a 39 percent chance of holding Forte to under 100 yards, but if they do this they actually win 52 percent of the Custom Game Simulations. Marc Bulger is no longer a threat to carry the team offensively. He only passes for over 200 yards in 34 percent of simulations. Even if he does this, the Rams only win 29 percent of the time.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Patriots will likely miss the playoffs if they lose this game. The Dolphins are slightly favored at home thanks to an advantage in the running game. The Miami duo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are averaging over 4 ypc for 120 yards combined. The Patriots trio of RBs are under 4 ypc for 100 yards. Both QBs have ratings of around 88 completing around 65 percent of their passes, but the Dolphins are sacking Matt Cassel nearly 4 times per sim. In Custom Game Simulations where Cassel is sacked under 4 times, the Patriots actually get the edge winning 55 percent of the time by an average score of 20-19.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Giants are slightly favored despite Kurt Warner having a huge 300 yard 2 TD game. Both Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are averaging around 7 receptions per sim. The key for the game is whether Arizona can protect Kurt Warner. Warner is getting sacked two and half times per simulation and it results in Warner averaging 1.6 turnovers (interceptions and lost fumbles). When the protection is good and Warner is sacked no more than twice the Cardinals pull slightly ahead winning 53 percent of the time by an average score of 27-26. When Warner is sacked 3 or more times the average score is Giants 28, Arizona 23.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The Chargers are desperate for a win. The Colts run defense is struggling and LT is forecasted to finally break out for a big game. There is a 50 percent chance LT has 100+ rushing yards and 1+ rushing touchdowns. If he can do this the Chargers have a 78 percent chance. However, the Custom Game Simulations also indicate that if LT has under 100 rushing yards the Colts become the favorite winning 58 percent of these simulations by an average score of 23-21. The Chargers defense needs to force a few turnovers. If Peyton Manning has no interceptions the Colts get a slight 51 percent edge.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Look for the stagnant Redskins offense to pick up their game this week. Jason Campbell has a simulation passer rating over 90 and Clinton Portis has a 40 percent chance of rushing for 100 or more yards. In Custom Game Simulations the Redskins increase their winning percentage from 55 percent to 76 percent when Portis has 100+ yards. If Portis is held under 100 and Matt Hasselbeck has no more than 1 interception the Seahawks get the edge winning 66 percent of simulations by an average of 4 points.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jaguars are one of the most disappointing teams in the league but they are still forecasted to win this game by holding Adrian Peterson to 'just' 96 rushing yards. If Peterson does have 100 yards the Vikings become the favorite winning 58 percent of these simulations by an average of 2 points. Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are averaging just 3 ypc combined against the Vikings run defense, but if the offense can limit turnovers the Jags get the edge. Even without a good running performance, when the Jags turn the ball over no more than 1 time they increase their winning percentage to 73 percent. When the Jaguars turn it over two or more times their chances drop significantly from 63 percent to just 50 percent.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens have looked awful in two games this season -- vs the Colts and Giants. Now that they do not have to face a QB named Manning, they are forecasted for a bounce back performance at home vs the Eagles. The run defense was run over by the Giants, but Brian Westbrook is not a bruising runner and he is only averaging 3 ypc. Westbrook only has a 22 percent chance of rushing for 65 or more yards, but if he does this the Eagles get the big advantage winning 70 percent of Custom Game Simulations. However, if the Ravens defense holds Westbrook under 65 rushing yards and they sack McNabb at least twice they get the big edge winning 66 percent of these sims.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

This should be the highest scoring game of the week with both teams putting up 26+ points per simulation. The Packers are actually pulling off the slight upset winning 50.4 percent of simulations. Drew Brees is completing a slightly higher percentage of passes (63 percent to 61) and more yards (306 to 237) but it is Aaron Rodgers who has the edge in TD passes (1.9 to 1.8) and, more importantly, fewer interceptions (0.6 to 1.4 for Brees). In fact, there is a 40 percent chance that Drew Brees has multiple interceptions and if he does the Saints chance drop from 49 percent to just 31 percent. If Brees has under 2 interceptions the Saints get the edge winning 61 percent of time. The key match-up is clearly Brees against the talented Packers secondary who lead the league in interceptions.

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