Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

NFL WEEK 13

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys are looking to close the season strong and they have a 56 percent chance of racking up another easy double digit win over an NFC West opponent. Tony Romo has a simulation passer rating over 100 with a 48 percent chance of passing for 250+ yards and 2+ TDs. Matt Hasselbeck has just a 71 rating in simulations with just a 12 percent chance of passing for 250 and 2 TDs. Even if Hasselbeck has a big game the Cowboys are still favored by 6 points winning 72 percent of these simulations because Julius Jones and Maurice Morris only average 3.5 ypc. Marion Barber is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim to give the Cowboys a balanced offensive attack.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ DETROIT LIONS

The Titans will be playing without the pressure of going undefeated so expect them to win big. The Titans win by double digits in 60 percent of simulations. Kerry Collins is averaging 1.3 TD passes and just 0.4 interceptions. Daunte Culpepper is averaging 0.8 TDs, but 1.6 INTs per sim. There is a 79 percent chance that Detroit turns the ball over at least twice compared to just 39 percent for Tennessee. To pull of the huge upset the Lions defense has to force at least 3 turnovers and hold Chris Johnson to under 75 yards. If they do this the Lions actually pull slightly ahead winning 50.7 percent of these simulations.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Donovan McNabb is going to start and he is forecasted to snap out of his funk against the below average Cardinals pass defense. In fact, while McNabb is not completing as high a percentage of passes as Kurt Warner, he actually is averaging a few more passing yards per sim. The Eagles pass rush is the key to the game. When the Eagles sack Kurt Warner no more than two times and Kurt Warner has no interceptions the Cardinals have a 52 percent chance of winning. When the Eagles sack Warner 3 or more times the Eagles have a 76 percent chance of winning with Kurt Warner averaging 1.6 turnovers (interceptions plus lost fumbles).

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills are solid favorites at home despite Frank Gore averaging over 100 yards per simulation. Shaun Hill is doing a good job limiting turnovers with just a 43 percent chance of throwing an interception. However, in an effort to protect the ball Hill is not completing a lot of downfield passes and he is averaging just 170 yards per sim despite completing nearly 60 percent of his passes. Hill only passes for 220 or more yards in 21 percent of simulations. Trent Edwards has a 51 percent chance of passing for 220+ yards. If Marshawn Lynch provides 80 yards rushing the Bills should cruise to victory winning 78 percent of these simulations.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Bengals are second to last in the league in both rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Against Baltimore Cedric Benson is only averaging 2.3 ypc. Benson only has an 18 percent chance of rushing for a touchdown which is the same chance of losing a fumble. The Ravens trio of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Leron McClain combine for 110 rushing yards compared to just 75 for Cincinnati. The Ravens also have the edge at QB with Joe Flacco having a simulation rating of 83 vs just 70 for Ryan Fitzpatrick. In order to win the Bengals cannot turn the ball over more than one time. If they do this the Bengals improve their chances to 47 percent. If they commit no turnovers the Bengals have a 58 percent chance of winning, but there is only a 10 percent chance the Bengals have 0 turnovers against the Ravens big play defense.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Unfortunately for Browns fans neither Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson give the Browns a very good chance of winning this game. Quinn is out for the rest of the year. He had led Cleveland to a win in 32 percent of simulations which is slightly better than the 30 percent that Derek Anderson is delivering.. The Colts offense is getting in gear with Peyton Manning averaging 250 passing yards and nearly 2 TD passes and Joseph Addai putting up 5 ypc. There is a 41 percent chance the Colts rack up over 400 yards on offense. Jamal Lewis does have a 46 percent chance of rushing for over 100 yards.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers pass defense was one of the best in the league until the Saints racked up 51 primarily through the air on them. The Packers defense should be much better at home against a struggling Jake Delhomme. Delhomme has a simulation passer rating of just 70. The Panthers are getting good production running the ball. DeAngelo Williams is averaging over 5 ypc and he and Jonathan Stewart combine for over 120 yards. The Panthers are holding Ryan Grant to just 3.9 ypc and 74 yards per sim. If Grant does have over 80 rushing yards the Packers become solid favorites winning 75 percent of these simulations. If he is held under 80 the Panthers have a 59 percent chance of winning.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders offense racked up 31 which may illustrate just how bad Denver is on defense. The Chiefs defense was totally embarrassed by Buffalo last week. If Oakland can get big games out of Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden expect the Raiders to win their second in a row. There is a 53 percent chance that both McFadden and Fargas have at least 50 yards rushing and if they do the Custom Game Simulator gives the Raiders a 73 percent chance of winning. The Chiefs have a chance if Larry Johnson runs for at least 90 yards and Tyler Thigpen has no more than 1 interception. The Chiefs win 65 percent of these custom game simulations.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

Steven Jackson is expected to be back and while he only has a 17 percent chance of rushing for 75 yards with 1 TD if he does the the Custom Game Simulator gives the Rams a 46 percent chance of winning the game. If the horrible Rams defense can hold Ronnie Brown to under 75 yards rushing the Rams actually pull ahead winning by 3 points per custom game sim. Chad Pennington has a very good simulation rating of 93 while Trent Green, currently playing for the concussed Marc Bulger in simulations, has just a 62 rating. Bulger is getting sacked 3 times per sim with Joey Porter averaging 1 more sack.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

This is a matchup of the rookie of the year from 2007, Adrian Peterson, versus the possible rookie of the year, Matt Forte. Look for Peterson to be the offensive star of the game as he once again torches the Bears for a huge game. Peterson has a sky high 44 percent chance of rushing for 150+ yards and in Custom Game Simulations the Vikings win 78 percent of these game simulations. However, Matt Forte is averaging just 2.9 ypc against the Vikings run defense. The Bears are staying close thanks to Kyle Orton outplaying Gus Frerotte. Orton has a simulation rating over 80 and a 33 percent chance of passing for 200+ yards without an interception. If he does this the Bears have a 52 percent chance of winning.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Matt Cassell is forecasted for another very good game with a simulation rating over 90 and a better than 2 to 1 pass touchdown to interception ratio. Ben Roethlisberger is actually averaging more passing yards and touchdowns than Cassel, but he is also averaging twice as many interceptions. According to the Custom Game Simulator, if Ben Roethlisberger does not through an interception the Steelers can upset the Patriots. They win 50.5 percent of the simulations where Big Ben has no interceptions. Willie Parker is not playing in current simulations. The game will be updated when his status is confirmed.

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW YORK JETS

The Denver pass defense is horrible and even if Champ Bailey is back look for Brett Favre to complete nearly 70 percent of his passes with a 55 percent chance of passing for at least 2 TDs. The Jets can also expect a very good game from Thomas Jones who is averaging over 100 rushing yards per sim. In Custom Game Simulations when Jones has 100+ rushing yards the Jets chances improve from 66 percent to 84 percent. For Denver to upset the Jets they need to hold Jones to under 85 yards (less than 4 ypc). In these simulations the Broncos win 53 percent of the time by an average of 2 points.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Michael Turner returns to San Diego and is forecasted for more yards per carry than LT (4.4 to 4.1). However, the Chargers are forecasted to win thanks to a balanced attack. Philip Rivers is averaging over 250 passing yards and LT rushes for over 90. The Chargers have a 40 percent chance of reaching 400 total yards of offense and San Diego wins by an average of 10 points. However, if LT struggles with under 80 yards and Philip Rivers has to force things through the air the Falcons have a 48 percent chance of pulling off the upset.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AND TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Saints may have Reggie Bush back but they may be better with Pierre Thomas getting plenty of touches at RB. In simulations all 3 RBs, Thomas, Deuce McAllister and Bush are playing and Thomas is averaging over 4 ypc, substantially better than both McAllister and Bush. In Custom Game Simulations Thomas has 10+ carries and McAllister under 6 the Saints actually win 51 percent of the time. Tampa Bay needs to do what Green Bay could not which is force at least 1 interception from Drew Brees. There is 63 percent chance that Brees has at least 1 pick and the Bucs win 60 percent of these sims. Two interceptions or more and the Bucs win 71 percent.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

This simulation assumes that Brandon Jacobs will be back and he is forecasted for a strong 70 yards on 5 ypc. In simulations where Jacobs is not full strength and has under 25 yards the Giants win 46 percent of the simulations, down from 61 percent. Clinton Portis is also playing well averaging 88 yards per sim with a 34 percent chance of going for 100+. If Portis does have 100+ yards the Redskins are favored winning 64 percent of these Custom Game Simulations. The Giants pass rush is sacking Jason Campbell over 3 times per sim. If the Redskins protect Campbell and he is sacked no more than twice the Redskins pull ahead with a 54 percent chance of winning.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The disappointing Jaguars are slight underdogs at Houston because the defense cannot stop Steve Slaton. Slaton has a 39 percent chance of rushing for over 90 yards and he is averaging over 5 ypc. If the Jaguars can rediscover their defense of years past and hold Slaton under 80 yards rushing while forcing at least one Sage Rosenfels interception the Custom Game Simulator makes the Jags the favorite winning 67 percent of these simulations. The Jaguars need Maurice Jones-Drew to run the ball well. Fred Taylor is being held under 4 ypc once again. If MJD has at least 50 yards rushing with 1 rushing TD the Jaguars have the edge winning 64 percent of the time. If he is under 50 yards the Jags are losing by an average of 5 points.

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Knobby said:

Keep up the good work, what people are looking for from you depends on what they are seeking, most don't want to do the work, they just want to be told who's going to win and then when they don't they have someone else to blame...sad I look between what you say and go from there to preview games on my blog - http://www.profootballtoday.blogspot.com/

November 30, 2008

Andy V said:

Stephen Oh: I do not know if your intentions are to inform fantasy players or explain the accuscore win predictions, but the two do not mix well. If it's the first, I think it'd be better if you separate that into a different segment/article in itself. As far as the accuscore predictions, all you really need to tell us are the win percentages of the overall simulations, not, if player x throws for y yards, they have a z% chance of winning.

November 30, 2008

Damn Yankee said:

Your forecasts are no better than the weatherman. They also smell like Jimmy the Greeks predictions on the NFL Today back in the 70's and early 80's. "Dallas wins the game this week but don't be surprised if Washington kicks a late field goal to win the game." With a prediction like that, he couldn't lose! Yours are like, "If a guy in a red sweater eating popcorn is in attendance, the Packers have a 70% chance of winning but only 54% if he is eating peanuts. Gimme a break! Anyone can predict a win if Peyton throws for 500 yards, Colts win. If Portis rushes for 300 yards, Washington wins. Tell me how the teams matchup without those stats. Intangibles for instance. Coaching, weather and previous performances, not past performances. I don't think there is such thing as a fantasy football expert anyway. Nobody but God can tell us who will have a great game week to week. No computer, nor any one man is better at forecasting than any other guy.

November 28, 2008

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