Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281204024/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281204024/

LaDainian Tomlinson is having his worst season but he is in a good position to have just his 3rd 100 yard rushing day against the Raiders. In Custom Game Simulations where LT runs for over 90 yards the Chargers win 87 percent of the time by 14 points per sim. However, if the Raiders hold him to under 90 the game is a nail-biter with the Chargers winning 59 percent of simulations by just 3 points per. The Chargers pass defense has totally collapsed without Shawne Merriman, but their run defense should still be good enough to contain Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden. There is only a 48 percent chance that Fargas has over 50 rushing yards and McFadden has over 25.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207002/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207002/

The game is in Toronto, in a dome, so weather is not going to be an issue.  Current simulations have JP Losman starting, but Trent Edwards is a game time decision.  If Edwards can play this game is a coin flip with both teams winning 50 percent of the time.  With Losman the Bills are winning just 42 percent of the time largely due to the Miami pass rush led by Joey Porter.  The Custom Game Simulator gives the Dolphins a 50 percent chance of sacking Losman at least 4 times and if they do this Miami wins nearly 70 percent of simulations.  The key for Buffalo is protecting the passer and running the ball well.  If Losman is sacked less than 4 times and Marshawn Lynch has at least 75 rushing yards the Bills win nearly 75 percent of the time.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CHICAGO BEARS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207003/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207003/

The Jags obviously have mailed it in this season, but simulations do not necessarily factor in whether a team has given up. Based on statistics, the Jags have a decent 35 percent chance of upsetting Chicago. The Bears defense could not stop Adrian Peterson, but they are holding Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor to under 4 ypc combined. However, when both RBs run for at least 50 yards the Jags have a 64 percent chance of winning according to the Custom Game Simulator. On the flip side the Jags defense has completely fallen apart and look for Matt Forte to have a big game. There is a 37 percent chance he has over 100 yards rushing and if he does the Bears win by an average of 11 points per Custom Sim.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207007/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207007/

You never know what Denver team will show up, but simulations strongly favor the Broncos who win over 70 percent of 10,000 simulations. Peyton Hillis was drafted as a fullback, but his production as a RB has been terrific. He is averaging over 100 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD per sim. The Custom Game Simulator gives him a 52 percent chance of 100+ yards and in these simulations the Broncos win 88 percent of the time by an average score of Denver 31, Kansas City 17. But, if Hillis is held under 100 the Chiefs win 43 percent of the time. Jay Cutler is forecasted for a strong game completing 63 percent of his passes for 250 yards and over 1.5 TD passes per sim.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207008/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207008/

The Vikings defensive line took a major hit with their suspensions. Kevin Smith was averaging under 3 ypc when they were at full strength, but he is up to 3.6 with the suspensions. There is still just a 35 percent chance of Smith having over 75 rushing yards, but if he does the Custom Game Simulator gives the Lions a 40 percent chance, up from the baseline 26 percent. The obvious star of the game should be Adrian Peterson. Tennessee had both RBs run for 100+ yards and 2 TDs. Peterson is averaging over 140 rushing yards per sim. There is 34 percent chance Peterson has over 170 rushing yards! Jared Allen is averaging nearly 2 sacks per sim and there is a 39 percent chance that Daunte Culpepper is sacked 5 or more times.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207009/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207009/

The Packers pass defense has been torced two weeks in a row. Matt Schaub should be back this week and he is completing 66 percent of his passes with a 43 percent chance of passing for over 250 yards and at least 1 TD. A solid passing performance opens things up for Steve Slaton who is averaging over 90 yards per sim. If Slaton has 100+ yards and Schaub has 250 yards and 1 TD the Texans increase their chances to 44 percent, up from 30 percent overall. The Packers should win because Aaron Rodgers has a 3 to 1pass TD to INT ratio. WR Greg Jennings has a 51 percent chance of having at least 1 TD reception. The Packers win 74 percent of simulations where Jennings scores a TD by an average of 10 points per sim.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207010/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207010/

The pressure of an undefeated season is off the Titans and now they should be ready to close strong. Chris Johnson is averaging over 100 rushing yards and LenDale White is averaging over 70 per sim. There is only a 14 percent chance that Johnson and White are held under 120 rushing yards, but if the Browns can do this they increase their winning percentage frm 16 percent to 46 percent. The Titans defense is expected to shut down the Browns who are starting Ken Dorsey. Dorsey has a simulation passer rating of just 45 making it tough on Jamal Lewis. Lewis is averaging just 3.1 ypc and there is only a 28 percent chance he has 75 or more yards.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207011/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207011/

The Colts won ugly last week, but AccuScore expects a 'good looking' win this week. Joseph Addai has been quiet most of the season, but in simulations he has at least 50 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD in 45 percent of simulations. The Custom Game Simulator gives the Colts a 95 percent chance of winning if Addai can be this productive. The Colts defense is limiting Cedric Benson to just 3.5 ypc and Benson is averaging just 0.21 rushing TDs per sim which is not that much higher than the 0.17 lost fumbles he is averaging. Peyton Manning has a simulation passer rating of 103 and there is only a 17 percent chance of Manning throwing multiple interceptions. Even with multiple interceptions the Bengals still only win 28 percent of the time.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207018/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207018/

Deuce McAllister may be suspended, but that gives Pierre Thomas more touches which helps the Saints win by an average of 3 points. Thomas is averaging over 5 ypc and when he has at least 50 rushing yards and Drew Brees throws no more than 1 interception the Saints increase their winning percentage from 60 percent to 79 percent. The Falcons are getting solid performances from Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. Matt Ryan is throwing no interceptions in 54 percent of simulations and if he does the Falcons increase their winning percentage to 47 percent. If Michael Turner also rushes for at least 75 yards the Falcons become the heavy favorite winning 75 percent of these simulations by an average of 9 points.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207019/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207019/

The Giants are rolling and are heavy 74 percent favorites over the Eagles. Brandon Jacobs is averaging over 6 ypc and there is a 49 percent chance of Jacobs having at least 75 rushing yards and 1+ rushing TDs. The Giants win 88 percent of these Custom Game Simulations. Eli Manning has over an 80 passer rating spreading the ball around to 5 different players averaging over 2.5 receptions per sim. Donovan McNabb has a rating of just 77. There is a 20 percent chance McNabb has a 300 passing yard day, but the Eagles still only win 27 percent of these simulations because a big passing day typically indicates a team is playing from behind. When McNabb has 300+ passing yards, Brian Westbrook only averages 55 rushing yards on 3.5 ypc.

SAINT LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207022/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207022/

The Cardinals may have been manhandled in recent weeks, but they are still 99 percent favorites to win the weak NFC West. The are winning over 80 percent at home vs the Rams. Kurt Warner is averaging 280 yrds, 2 TDs and under 1 INT for a simulation passer rating of 106. Marc Bulger, on the other hand, has a sim passer rating of just 78. He has multiple touchdown passes in 28 percent of simulations. Even if he does have 2+ TD passes the Rams win just 26 percent of the time. For the Rams to upset Arizona, they need 2 TD passes from Bulger and at least 100 yards from Steven Jackson. In these Custom Game Simulations the Rams win 49 percent of the time.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207023/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207023/

Marion Barber is out and rookie Tashard Choice is only forecasted for 48 yards despite running the ball nearly 20 times per sim.    When the Cowboys win in simulations Choice averages over 70 yards and the Cowboys sack Ben Roethlisberger 4.7 times.  However, when Choice has under 70 rushing yards the Cowboys winning percentage drops from 44 percent to just 36 percent.  If the Cowboys also have less than 3 sacks they only have a 19 percent chance of winning.  Ben Roethlisberger is averaging as many passing yards per sim as Tony Romo with the Steelers defense is limiting Terrell Owens to under 70 yards per sim.  However, if Owens and TE Jason Witten both have over 75 yards receiving and Tony Romo has no more than 1 interception the Cowboys get the slight 51 percent edge in Custom Game Simulations.

NEW YORK JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207025/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207025/

The 49ers defense has been more inspired under Head Coach Mike Singletary and the offense, while unspectacular, has at least limited turnovers since Shaun Hill took over. The 49ers are staying close because Hill only has a 37 percent chance of throwing 1 or more interceptions while Brett Favre has a 58 percent chance of tossing an INT. Thomas Jones has been great this season, but Frank Gore is actually averaging 20 more rushing yards per sim. If Gore has over 100 rushing yards the 49ers are favored winning 66 percent of these Custom Game Simulations. But if he is under 100 rushing yards the 49ers win just 27 percent of the time.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207026/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207026/

The Patriots should be able to avoid the drops and other mistakes that cost them last week to win in Seattle. Randy Moss has a 44 percent chance of having at least 1 touchdown and when he does score the Patriots winning percentage increases from 72 percent to 78 percent. The Seahawks anemic running game is only getting 3.7 ypc from Julius Jones and Maurice Morris. There is only a 17 percent chance that Jones has 50+ rushing yards and Morris has 25+ as his backup. If these two are this productive the Seahawks actually become the favorite winning 53 percent of these Custom Game Simulations.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281207033/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281207033/

The Ravens run defense could not handle the Giants size and depth, but they are expected to handle Clinton Portis. Portis is averaging just 2.8 ypc in simulations. The Redskins actually do better running a pass heavy offense. In simulations where they average over 65 percent passing plays they win 38 percent of the time, up from 31 percent overall. The Ravens should look to LeRon McClain over former starter Willis McGahee again this week. In simulations where McClain averages 60 rushing yards the Ravens increase their winning percentage to 75 percent. Turnover are an obvious key to the game. When Washington does not turn the ball over they win 55 percent of Custom Game Simulations. When they have 2 or more turnovers the Redskins win just 20 percent of the time.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_pick_center/gameid,281208029/

http://accuscore.com/option,com_acc_nfl_custom_sim/gameid,281208029/

AccuScore is only giving the Bucs a 30 percent chance of winning this week, but if they can accomplish these 3 on-field statistical goals they can pull off the upset. First, Jeff Garcia cannot afford to throw a costly interception. The Bucs win 38 percent of simulations when Garcia throws no interceptions. The Bucs also need to pressure Jake Delhomme. If they sack Delhomme at least twice and Garcia throws no interceptions their winning percentage increases to 46 percent. Finally, if they do not allow Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams to have a big game (less than 100 rushing yards) combined with the other two factors, the Panthers have a 55 percent chance of winning.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (3)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Paul K said:

Just a guess, but I bet that the Falcons can easily take the New Orleans "Hornets".

December 05, 2008

STEPHEN URBANIK said:

Don't underestimate J.P. Losman. They key to this games will be protection for J.P. in the pocket. I don't know what it is about the Buffalo Bills offensive line when J.P. is in the game, but, this Sunday, in Toronto, if they can give him the protection Trent Edwards gets, mark the Bills down with a lopsided victory. Mark my words!!!!

December 04, 2008

STEPHEN URBANIK said:

L.Tomlinson TOUCHDOWN 1st quarter of Thursdays game! That puts him ONE touchdown from tying Marcus Allen for 2nd on the All time list. One word describes my thouoghts on L.T......."LEGEND!"

December 04, 2008

Name

Title

Comment

Add Comment