AccuScore
| NFL Week 10 Game Previews |
 Stephen Oh
AccuScore Analyst
NFL WEEK 10 DENVER BRONCOS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS Cleveland hopes Brady Quinn can succeed righta way like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. Without extensive game data, AccuScore is expecting Quinn to play OK with a rating over 80. It helps that he is playing a Denver defense that seemingly allows every opposing QB to have a huge game. Quinn has a 73 percent chance of having 1+ TDs and Cleveland wins 55 percent of these simulations in the Custom Game Simulator. With a ton of injuries to RBs, Denver needs rookie Ryan Torain to rush for at least 75 yards. Denver wins 70 percent of simulations where he goes over 75, just 41 percent when he is under 75. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS The Falcons are slight underdogs according to Vegas, but they are winning over 55 percent of simulations. Matt Ryan is averaging 3 times as many TD passes than interceptions. The Custom Game Simulator only gives Ryan a 41 percent chance of throwing an interception and if he does have one or more INT the Saints have a 56 percent chance of winning. Michael Turner is expected to be the star of the game with a 53 percent chance of having 100+ rushing yards. The Saints defense did shut down Adrian Peterson. If they hold Turner under 100 yards the Saints win 63 percent of the time. Drew Brees is averaging over 330 yards per game, but the key for New Orleans is his interceptions. If he has 1 or more INTs the Saints lose 64 percent of the time. If he has zero interceptions the Saints win 54 percent of the time. TENNESSEE TITANS @ CHICAGO BEARS The Titans are favored to win again, but the Bears definitely have a good chance of winning, if Rex Grossman does not throw interceptions. Grossman has 2 or more interceptions in 40 percent of the simulations and according to the Custom Game Simulator the Bears lose 73 percent of these simulations by an average of 8 points. However, if he throws no more than 1 interception the Bears are the 1 point favorite winning 56 percent of these simulations. Do not expect rookie RB Matt Forte to have a big game against the Titans defense. He is averaging under 4 ypc and has just a 23 percent chance of going for 100+ yards. Chris Johnson is sharing carries with LenDale White but still has a 27 percent chance of 100+ yards. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DETROIT LIONS AccuScore currently has Daunte Culpepper starting over Drew Stanton, although no official word has been made. When Culpepper starts the Lions 'only' lose by an average of 8 points with a 28 percent chance of winning according to the Custom Game Simulator. When Stanton starts the Lions lose by an average of nearly 12 points so it looks like like the Lions might as well go with the newly signed Culpepper. The Jaguars have been terribly disappointing, but for them to lose this game David Garrard would have to have 2+ interceptions and the offense would need to generate under 300 yards. When this happens the Lions win by 5 on average. CAROLINA PANTHERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS The Raiders offense looks like it would be the 5th best in the Big 12 right now. Against Carolina, they are averaging just 12.5 points per simulation with JaMarcus Russell averaging under 150 passing yards. There is only a 26 percent chance the Raiders offense has over 300 yards compared to the 70 percent chance the Panthers have 300+ yards. For Oakland to upset Carolina they need Justin Fargas to have 100+ yards and the defense needs to force at least 2 Carolina turnovers. There is only a 7 percent chance that both these factors happen, but if they do the Custom Game Simulator gives the Raiders a 57 percent chance of winning by an average of 3 points. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS It does not look like Matt Hasselbeck will be back this week and Seneca Wallace only has a 36 percent chance of having 200+ passing yards. If he does this the Seahawks do win 24 percent of the time, up +4 percentage points. Miami is sacking Wallace 3+ times in 55 percent of simulations and the Custom Game Simulator gives the Dolphins an 85 percent chance of winning if their pass rush is effective. On the flip side, with Patrick Kerney out for the Seahawks, they only have a 15 percent chance of sacking Chad Pennington 3+ times. The Dolphins are also running well with the combo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams going for over 160 yards per sim. GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS Green Bay is pulling off the mild upset in this key NFC North matchup winning a shade over 50 percent of simulations. The Vikings run defense is totally shutting down Ryan Grant who is averaging just 2.1 ypc. The Custom Game Simulator gives Grant a 9 percent chance of having 80+ yards. The key for the Packers is their superior passing game taking advantage of the relatively weak Vikings pass defense. With Jared Allen questionable Aaron Rodgers has a 49 percent chance of having 250+ yards and at least 1 TD. If the Vikings sack Rodgers no more than twice the Packers chances go from 52 percent to 63 percent. The Vikings need Adrian Peterson to dominate. He has a 54 percent chance of 120+ rushing yards and if he does this the Vikings have a 65 percent chance of winning. BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS The Bills running game has not been effective and the Patriots have been better against the run in recent weeks. Marshawn Lynch is averaging just 53 yards on 3.1 ypc in simulations. If Lynch can break through for 75+ yards the Custom Game Simulator gives the Bills a 55 percent chance of pulling off the upset. The Patriots should win if they can run the ball well. In simulations where Matt Cassel has under 200 passing yards, but the Patriots RBs can combine for 100+ yards the Patriots chances of winning increase from 68 percent to 77 percent. ST. LOUIS RAMS @ NEW YORK JETS The Jets should be able to control this game by running the ball. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are averaging over 150 rushing yards per simulation. If the RBs are running well and Brett Favre has no more than 1 interception the Jets win 84 percent of the time in Custom Game Simulations. However, if the running game is ineffective (Jones under 75 yards), and Favre starts taking too many risks downfield (1+ interceptions), the Rams actually pull of the big upset winning 52 percent of these simulations by an average of a single point. NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES The Giants are actually forecasted to pull off a big upset winning 51 percent of simulations thanks to Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward averaging over 5 ypc and Eli Manning throwing no more than 1 interception. When Manning has 1 or more interceptions the Eagles win 56 percent of the time according the Custom Game Simulator. The Eagles need to protect McNabb from the scary Giants pass rush. When McNabb is sacked under 3 times the Eagles have a 63 percent chance of winning. When McNabb is sacked 3 or more times the Giants win 59 percent of the time by an average of 3 points. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS AccuScore currently has Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich both playing 50 percent of the time. In simulations both QBs have a rating of 83 indicating that it may be wise for Pittsburgh to rest Big Ben rather than risk further injury. Regardless of who is QB, if Mewelde Moore, filling in for Willie Parker, can have 100+ yards the Steelers win 83 percent of the time. If Moore is held under 100 yards the game is dead even with both teams winning 50 percent of time. The Colts are underdogs because they cannot run the ball on the road against the stout Steelers defense. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes both average under 3 ypc in simulations and Rhodes has just a 10 percent chance of having 80+ rushing yards. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS Despite their poor record and poor play AccuScore still has the Chargers as the solid favorite to win the AFC West because they still have their weak division opponents at home to play. Look for LT to finally have a big game. The Custom Game Simulator gives LT a 51 percent chance of having 100+ rushing yards and 1+TD. If he can do this the Chargers win by an average of 19 points per simulation. Tyler Thigpen has been better in recent weeks, and there is only a 26 percent chance he has multiple interceptions, but he is only averaging 180 passing yards per simulation on 51 percent completion percentage. BALTIMORE RAVENS @ HOUSTON TEXANS Sage Rosenfels will either win this game or lose this game. He is completing 65 percent of his passes for nearly 240 passing yards and a 48 percent chance of having 2+ touchdown passes. If he has 2 or more touchdown passes the Texans win 60 percent of Custom Game Simulations. However, Rosenfels is averaging nearly as many interceptions as touchdown passes. There is a 41 percent chance he has 2+ interceptions and this results in the Texans winning just 31 percent of the time. Joe Flacco is playing well again with a rating of nearly 90 and just a 47 percent chance of having 1 or more interceptions. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS Arizona has a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs (highest in the league) thanks to playing in the awful NFC West. They are heavy favorites over San Francisco winning over 70 percent of simulations. If Kurt Warner is efficient with 250+ yards and Tim Hightower runs for 75+ yards the Cardinals have an 86 percent chance of winning. Shaun Hill is performing better than former 49ers starter, JT O`Sullivan. When O`Sullivan plays the 49ers win just 17 percent of the time and lose by an average of 13 points. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin both average 6 receptions and over 80 yards per sim.
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