Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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My grandma has some crazy theories.  For the last week, every time I have gone to visit her, I have been hearing about my parents’ fridge acting up.  Apparently the fridge has been making a noise, and might need a repair or a replacement.  My grandma’s theory on this is that my parents have been putting hot food in the fridge, causing the fridge to work harder to avoid defrosting, and eventually wearing the unit down.  I’ve researched this theory online and it does exist, although I find it to be nothing more than an old wives tale.  The main reason I think this is due to some other theories my grandma presents on a regular basis.  They include:

-Don’t run the washing machine on “Super Load” or else it will fill up, leak out, and flood the laundry room (I’m not sure why they would make a mode on the washing machine that would do such a thing…it’s like putting a self-destruct button on an air-plane and labeling it “Don’t Push”.)

-When the power goes out and comes back on, if you don’t re-set the blinking clocks, the device will blow up.  It doesn’t matter if that device is a microwave, alarm clock, or an oven.

-If you have an ant problem, you can get rid of them by pouring wine on them (this is probably an anti-alcohol push by her, and I think rum would work better).

-Don’t put knives in the dishwasher basket, or else they will cut the basket up.

-Also in the fridge category: holding the fridge open for more than two seconds puts you at risk of defrosting the refrigerator.

-Having the TV on during a lightning storm puts you at risk of the TV blowing up (apparently this happened to my mom when she was a kid, but I have a feeling they’ve done wonderful things with surge protectors and underground power lines since then, plus sometimes you need to find out who’s getting the boot on “Flavor of Love”, and that takes priority over a storm and risk of your television exploding).

-Having the TV on with no sound will make the TV blow up (a lot of things are at risk of blowing up around her, almost like she’s living in an episode of “The Unit”).

-Putting your car visor down will blind the car behind you, as the sun will reflect off the mirror on the visor, and blind the driver behind you, with the end result being that the driver will “run up on you” (never mind the rear view and side view mirrors that are always there and have the same theoretical risks)

Now most of the time these theories are so crazy that I think my grandma is just saying them to get a rise out of someone, just like when I tell her I’m going to drive five hours to Pittsburgh for a Primanti Brothers sandwich (which doesn’t sound like a bad idea, and you would know that if you had this sandwich).  However, every time I hear one of these theories, I think to myself “there’s no way that could possibly be true”.

We often think the same thing when it comes to the waiver wire.  You hear “Tyler Thigpen threw for 710 yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions the last three weeks, and he could be a solid contributor for the remainder of the season”, and it’s the same as hearing something like “Don’t park the car near the hot water heater in the garage, or the hot water heater will blow up”.  I’m also going to chalk it up to coincidence that two days after my wife and I cleaned out our garage in order to park the car inside, the hot water heater sprung a leak and soaked half of the stuff in the garage.  This week the waiver wire features some crazy sounding options for your team for the remainder of the season.  Guys like Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, Peyton Hillis at running back, Mark Bradley and Malcom Floyd at wide receiver, and Bo Scaife at tight end are a few of the names.  Maybe Tyler Thigpen will be the “old wives tale” version of a productive fantasy quarterback, but if I’m in need of quarterback help, I’m willing to accept the crazy notion that Thigpen can help me for the remainder of the season.

Quarterbacks

Brady Quinn – Last week Quinn took over as the starter in Cleveland, and had a great debut, throwing for 239 yards and two touchdowns.  The game came against the Broncos defense, so that has to be taken in to consideration.  Quinn is averaging 11.8 points per week in AccuScore simulations for weeks 11 through 14, and 13.15 points per week in weeks 15 and 16.  His best matchup comes in week 12 against Houston, but outside of that he might not be any better than guys like Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.

Tyler Thigpen – Thigpen has been on fire the past three weeks, combining for 710 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions, and 68 rushing yards as a bonus.  He has a great matchup this week against the Saints, with AccuScore simulations projecting 17.4 points, making him the number three ranked quarterback in week 11, only behind Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

Matt Hasselbeck – After struggling all year, and dealing with injuries, Matt Hasslebeck is expected to return in week 11, and has a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals at home.  AccuScore simulations have Hasselbeck throwing for 255 yards, and two or more touchdowns in 61 percent of simulations, making him the seventh best quarterback in week 11.

Running Backs

Peyton Hillis – I haven’t been focusing on Denver running backs for the majority of this season for two reasons: there are too many of them, and Denver seems to be focused more on the passing game.  All of the injuries have left us with Hillis and Selvin Young, and even Young is banged up.  However, Denver is still primarily focused on the passing game, which is why I’m not high on the running back, no matter who the flavor of the week is (or in this case, the last man standing).

Ricky Williams – There’s good and bad to Miami’s wild cat offense.  The good is that it provides a lot of opportunities for any player to have a monster game.  The bad is that you never know who those players having the monster game will be.  In week 11 the Dolphins play the Raiders, owners of a 29^th ranked rushing defense, which means the chances of Williams having a big game are strong.  AccuScore projects 66 rushing yards and a touchdown in half of simulations.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis – BGE carried the ball 26 times for 105 yards and a touchdown last week, making it the fourth week in a row that he reached the end zone.  He goes up against the New York Jets in week 11, who have the number five run defense in the NFL, but has a 60 percent chance of reaching the end zone in AccuScore simulations.

Jerious Norwood/Chester Taylor – Norwood and Taylor both broke out for big games last week, but I feel that was more about the matchups (New Orleans for Norwood, Green Bay for Taylor), and one big improbable play for each player (67 yard touchdown reception for Norwood, 47 yard touchdown for Taylor).  I don’t buy either of them as options to repeat their week ten success.

Justin Fargas – I do buy Justin Fargas and the production we saw from him in week ten.  While Fargas didn’t have a monster game, he ran for 89 yards on 22 carries against the Panthers.  I like him more than Norwood or Taylor, for the sole reason that you know Fargas is going to get a lot of chances to make plays, and will be more consistent than Norwood and Taylor.

Wide Receivers

Mark Bradley – In the last three weeks Bradley has caught 18 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns, and has even passed for a touchdown.  His production coincides with Tyler Thigpen’s recent hot streak.  The Chiefs play the Saints in week 11, making Bradley a great sleeper start.

Malcom Floyd – Floyd has also excelled the last four games, catching 12 passes for 237 yards, and catching a touchdown in three of the last four games.  Floyd has a tough matchup against the Steelers in week 11, catching just two passes for 32 yards, with a touchdown in 26 percent of AccuScore simulations.

Ted Ginn Jr – Ginn Jr has shown his big game ability the last few weeks, catching seven passes for 175 yards in week eight, and catching four passes for 67 yards and a touchdown last week.  He takes on the Raiders this week, and while AccuScore simulations project three catches for 35 yards, you never can tell who will break out in the Miami offense.  That being said, I’d only start him in a flex spot if I was desperate, or as a third receiver in deeper leagues.

Lance Moore – Moore is my favorite on this list, mainly because he’s provided the most consistent production.  Since week three Moore has averaged almost six catches per game, 69 yards per game, and has a touchdown in each of the last two weeks.  The Saints play the Chiefs in week 11, and Moore is projected to catch four passes for 41 yards with a touchdown in 24 percent of AccuScore simulations.

Tight Ends

Todd Heap – Todd Heap finally became fantasy relevant in week ten, catching five passes for 58 yards and two touchdowns.  Chances are that happened while Heap was on the bench or the waiver wire in your league.  The question is, will the production stand, or was it a one week wonder?  AccuScore has him projected for four catches, 41 yards, and a 23 percent chance of a touchdown in week 11, making him the 11^th best tight end option.

Bo Scaife – Scaife caught ten passes for 78 yards and a touchdown in week ten.  He’s become a favorite target of Kerry Collins, with 19 receptions for 148 yards in the last three weeks.  AccuScore projects four catches for 35 yards and a touchdown in 20 percent of simulations this week, making him a sleeper option.  The bye weeks are over, but if you were struggling at tight end to begin with, he’s worth a shot.

Kevin Boss – Boss has emerged as a big red zone target for Eli Manning, catching a touchdown in each of the last three weeks.  He has a 33 percent chance of catching a touchdown this week, according to AccuScore simulations against the Ravens.  I like him more than Scaife, but I don’t consider either of them top tight end options on a weekly basis.

Defense/Special Teams

Miami – The Dolphins take on the Raiders in week 11, allowing 13 points, recording three sacks and two turnovers in AccuScore simulations.  The Dolphins are the fourth ranked defense in AccuScore simulations for week 11.

San Francisco – The 49ers also have an easy matchup, taking on the Rams in week 11.  AccuScore projects 16 points allowed, with three sacks and two turnovers, making the 49ers the ninth best defensive option in AccuScore simulations for week 11.

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weeve said:

i would never put denver rb's on any list u have. it seems who ever is picked as the starter is doomed to end up "out for the season" the very next week.

November 11, 2008

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