Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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I was going to use this space to rant on the overtime tie from this past week, but I touched on that in the NFL Deviants column yesterday.  I’ll just say this: the NFL is the only professional league in America (and for future reference, I only count the NFL, MLB, NHL, and NBA when I refer to professional sports) that can end in a tie.  Not only that, but the whole overtime process is screwed up to begin with, as one team can gain an unfair advantage by winning a coin flip to get the ball first, putting the other team in a position where they don’t have a chance to score.

The coin flip rule would be like baseball going to extra innings, and not allowing the home team to bat after the visiting team scores a run.  It would be like giving one team a penalty shot in hockey, and calling the game if the first shooter scores a goal.  It would be like giving one team the ball in overtime in the NBA, with the first basket winning the game.  Sure, the opposing team has a chance to stop their opponents from scoring, and can get the ball for their own chance of scoring, but that’s hardly justification for the current system.  If the system is so fair as it stands right now, then why does every team jump at the opportunity of getting the ball first?  If it was truly fair, then it wouldn’t be a big issue with one team getting the ball first.

College football and the NFL need to get together and work a few things out.  College football needs to show the NFL how overtime is done (they can even teach the fans to run out on the field after a go ahead score with time still left on the clock).  The NFL needs to teach college football about playoff brackets, and why a good team like USC, Penn State, Oklahoma, or Texas shouldn’t be punished for playing one bad week.

I decided to try a new format with this column this week.  I kind of like it.  Everywhere you look you will find a list of the same players, with the same analysis, in the same format.  So I decided to take the same players, but compare them side by side using AccuScore’s simulations for the remainder of the season.  Now you’ve got your analysis on Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen, and Shaun Hill, and you can check here each week to see how they compare over the remainder of the season, and on a week by week basis.  With that being said, let’s begin.

Quarterbacks

If you’re in need of a quarterback, and I’d say most are based on the seasons by top picks like Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer, and Derek Anderson, the waiver wire has a lot of good options.

Tyler Thigpen put up his fourth productive week in a row starting in Kansas City, throwing for 235 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception against the Saints.  That makes eight touchdowns and one interception in his last four games.  Matt Cassel put up a monster game against the Jets, throwing for 400 yards and three touchdowns.  For the second week in a row Shaun Hill topped 200 passing yards and threw for two touchdowns.  Brady Quinn threw for 185 yards, but no touchdowns or interceptions, and Jeff Garcia had a similar vanilla-style performance, with 255 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Each player comes with question marks, which explains why they are on the waiver wire.  Garcia rarely makes a mistake, with just three interceptions in seven games, but also rarely puts up more than yardage, with five touchdowns in those seven games, and no games with more than one touchdown.  Quinn had a good outing against Denver, but then again it was against Denver, and he failed to throw for a touchdown on Monday night.  Cassel has not seen the success we saw in week 11, which brings up the question of whether he can repeat that success.  Hill and Thigpen have both been successful the past few weeks, but both came out of nowhere, raising doubts as to whether this production is legit.  So who is the best option on the waiver wire?

Despite the poor touchdown numbers, Garcia is the best option on the waiver wire, thanks in part to some favorable matchups the next few weeks, including Detroit this week, and New Orleans next week.  Matt Cassel is surprisingly the second best option of the group, with a strong week 15 match against Oakland.  Thigpen is fairly consistent with his production, and finishes strong with 28 total points in the final two weeks.  Garcia is the obvious choice as the best overall, but if he’s not available, the choice comes down to Thigpen and Cassel.  I’d go with Cassel if you need a boost to the playoffs, and Thigpen if you’re already in reach of the playoffs.

Running Backs

Week 11 saw the Denver running game get some action, Earnest Graham going down with a possible season ending injury, and Antonio Pittman putting up another strong performance in the absence of Steven Jackson.  If you’re looking for a long term option, you’ve got Warrick Dunn, who will be getting a bigger work load with Graham gone, or your choice of the two Denver running backs, Peyton Hillis and Tatum Bell.  Hillis got the touchdowns, but Bell also saw some carries.

If you need a one week replacement, perhaps to fill in for Steven Jackson once more, or maybe to spot start in place of a bad matchup this week (hello Thomas Jones vs the Titans), there are two short term options.  Antonio Pittman will replace Jackson again, after carrying the ball 14 times for 95 yards last week.  Pierre Thomas may also get some work if Deuce McAllister is forced to serve suspension time.  Thomas carried the ball 16 times for 88 yards and a touchdown in week eleven.  Which running backs are the best for week 12, and which is the best long term pickup.

Hillis appears to be the best option, both in week 12, and in the long term.  Dunn may be getting extra carries, but he’s still not a goal line back, and BJ Askew will be vulturing the goal line touchdowns like we saw on Sunday.  Pittman is a decent option this week, but falls behind Dunn and Hillis.  AccuScore’s projections on Thomas include the time share with McAllister, as nothing is official for week 12 and beyond.  If Deuce is suspended, he will be out for four games, and that happening makes Thomas the top pickup in my book.

Wide Receivers

Lance Moore scored a touchdown in his third game in a row, catching eight passes for 102 yards.  Moore has caught 20 passes in his last three games for 268 yards and three touchdowns.  Ted Ginn Jr ran for a touchdown, making it two weeks in a row that he has found the end zone, with double digit fantasy points in three of the last four weeks.  Donnie Avery bounced back from two poor performances to catch nine passes for 93 yards.  Mark Bradley caught three passes for 54 yards, failing to reach double digit points for the first time in four weeks.  Michael Jenkins caught five passes for 55 yards, a good performance in PPR leagues.  I’m not even going to look in to the Tennessee wide receivers, because I don’t even think Justin Gage and Brandon Jones would add themselves, even after their performances last week.

Jenkins and Moore top the list, with Jenkins scoring slightly higher, thanks to a poor week 15 performance by Moore.  I think Moore has the potential to put up the better numbers, so if I had my choice, I’d go with him, despite the slight difference in favor of Jenkins.  The Saints are committed to the pass, while the Falcons have a good passing game, but don’t throw nearly as much.  Mark Bradley remains an intriguing option, but I would only use him, Avery, and Ginn Jr in a flex spot.

Tight Ends

Dustin Keller put up another big game, with eight catches for 87 yards, following his six catches for 107 yards and a touchdown last week.  Keller has emerged recently as a favorite target for Brett Favre, and has emerged as a starting fantasy option on the waiver wire.  Ben Watson took advantage of Matt Cassel’s big day, catching eight passes for 88 yards and a touchdown.  The eight passes matches what Watson has caught in the previous five weeks, raising questions as to whether this was a fluke, or an emerging trend.  Vernon Davis found the end zone for the second week in a row, following his issues with Mike Singletary in week eight, but has just two catches in those two weeks.

Keller looks like the best option, and a legit starting tight end option, but are Watson and Davis in the same class?

The simulations confirm that Keller is the best option, almost doubling the efforts of David and Watson.  Davis is consistently better than Watson, outscoring him every week except for week 16.  If Keller is available, he’s easily the only reliable option from this group.  I’d only use Davis or Watson if you were desperate.

Defense/Special Teams

This week the Miami Dolphins and the Denver Broncos are AccuScore’s sleeper defensive units.  Here is how they break down:

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toepedoed said:

in cfl, yes i am canadian, they implement something different to fix the problem of overtime issues. each team has a possession at their opponents 30 yard line and given regular sets of downs until there is a turnover, td, fg, missed fg. after team A scores/turns the ball over, team B gets a chance to start at the opponents 30 yard line and try to score. and they can keep doing this until one team is ahead after each team has the same number of chances to score. getting the ball first in this format wouldnt be really that advantageous, it might even be beneficial to get the ball last, (or you can just designate the home team having the last ball, like bottom of the overtime of sorts.)

November 19, 2008

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