Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Last week I rolled out the new format of this column, and the feedback I got was very much in favor of the new method.  I plan on keeping the same model once baseball season rolls around, although I might work on a different name.  This was my first column, as I started writing it while working part time with AccuScore last year.  It was posted on AOL Sports each week, where it was given the title “Waiver Wire Wonders”.  I went with the name, only to find that they call their FanHouse article “Waiver Wire Wonders” as well.

As for the new format, it’s not really that new.  This is the part where I tell you all about the great tools we have here at AccuScore (and after telling you to bench Thomas Jones last week, you may consider me to be one of those tools).

Our Forecasted Player Rankings allow you to see AccuScore projections for each player, broken down by position with the ability to sort by week (giving you each week’s rankings).  We even have IDP rankings for those of you who are hardcore fantasy players.

The Pro Player Analyzer gives you the odds of a certain event happening.  Want to find out the odds of Trent Edwards getting you the 15 points you need to win on a given Monday night?  Just check out the pro player analyzer, where you can get AccuScore’s probabilities on each player’s fantasy points, passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, and any other stats (just so you didn’t think we left out receivers).

The Player Comparison tool allows you to…well, it’s pretty self descriptive.  You can compare between two players, which helps in situations where you’re trying to decide which player to add, or which player to accept in a trade.

If you’re looking for a forecast of your team, there’s the Team Forecast tool , which allows you to put in your starting lineup, and shows your team’s projected points for each week of the fantasy season.

And of course each week we have the “Waiver Wire Wonders”, and “The Truth”, in which I use the Forecasted Player Rankings, combined with my own analysis, to give you waiver wire and start/sit advice.  With that being said, let’s get to this week’s Waiver Wire Wonders.

Quarterbacks

A lot of options are emerging on the waiver wire as potential starters.  I’ve seen Trent Edwards dropped in a few of my leagues after a series of less than impressive starts, only to watch him put up his first multiple touchdown performance against the Chiefs.  Matt Cassel threw for another monster performance, with 815 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two weeks.  Tyler Thigpen has now topped 20 points five weeks in a row.  Chad Pennington is always a threat with the wild cat offense.  Kyle Orton returns from injury after being hot earlier in the season.  Shaun Hill is putting up solid performances with the 49ers.

Cassel is by far the best of the group, averaging 2.75 more points per week than the second option.  However, Thigpen may be the most accessible, as Cassel, Edwards, and Pennington are all owned in about half of leagues.  AccuScore simulations have Cassel finishing the year as the seventh ranked fantasy quarterback, with Pennington finishing 12^th, Thigpen 15^th, and Edwards 16^th.

If he’s still there, I’m taking Cassel.  However, if he’s gone, I’m going with Thigpen.  The simulations may disagree, but I think Thigpen is the best of the remaining options.  The Chiefs will be playing from behind a lot, which means more passing opportunities.  He has good receivers in Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe, and has established a solid rapport with Mark Bradley.

Running Backs

The biggest question in the age of running backs by committee is “what to do with those secondary running backs?”  I’m talking about guys like Leon Washington, Derrick Ward, Kevin Faulk, and Maurice Morris.  They’re the guys that break out for big weeks out of nowhere, with barely anyone owning them.  Those that do own them have them on the bench because their production is too inconsistent, even for a flex position.  For future reference, I will refer to these guys as "Shanahans", as any fantasy football problem involving running backs eventually links back to Mike Shanahan.  It's like the "Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon" game.  This past week we saw Shanahans like Justin Fargas, Leon Washington, Derrick Ward, Kevin Faulk, Maurice Morris, and LeRon McClain put up solid points, despite their crowded backfield situations.

Fargas projects to be the best of the bunch, putting up a great performance this week, and another good performance in the week 16 championships.  However, what if you want to try and avoid the inconsistencies, and start each player when they’re prime for a big week?  Looking at the AccuScore forecasts, Justin Fargas is the best option in week 13, with Leon Washington also putting up good numbers.  Derrick Ward is by far the best option in week 14.  Washington is the best option in week 15, with Fargas, Ward, Faulk, and Morris all putting up similar numbers.  Fargas is the best bet in week 16, with Washington and Faulk close behind.

Wide Receivers

This past week saw Mark Bradley catch for his third touchdown in five games.  Isaac Bruce, Ashley Lelie, and Harry Douglas all came out of nowhere to put up monster performances.  Reggie Williams, a touchdown phenom from last season, scored just his second touchdown of the year.

Bradley is easily the best option of the group, and is worth an add.  Out of the surprise group, Bruce has the best chance of being productive, but probably isn’t worth owning or starting.  Williams ranks last, as his touchdown pace from 2007 is not being replicated.  As for Bradley, just how good is he?  Let’s compare him to fellow teammate, and fantasy starter, Dwayne Bowe for the remainder of the season.

Bowe ranks almost a point better than Bradley on average, but Bradley is certainly close.  He’s a must add if you have a flex spot, if you start three wide receivers, or if you have a deep league and you are thin at receiver.

Tight Ends

The tight end class is very deep, to the point where you can find at least one of Dustin Keller, Kevin Boss, or John Carlson on the waiver wire in most leagues.  Each had a solid week in week 13, while Jerramy Stevens (who I’m not a fan of, not in a fantasy aspect, but in a life aspect) had his second big week in a row.

Keller ranks as the top option, and is especially valuable in PPR leagues.  Boss and Carlson have their points relying mostly on their ability to catch touchdowns.  Keller averages four catches per game in AccuScore simulations, while Boss and Carlson average three catches a game.  I added Keller last week in my PPR league, letting go of Anthony Fasano, which was a move that was long overdue.

Defense/Special Teams

This week the Miami Dolphins and the Oakland Raiders are AccuScore’s sleeper defensive units.  Here is how they break down:

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