Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The fantasy season is winding down, and depending on your playoff race, it is beginning to heat up.  Week 14 leaves some teams with one last shot at the post-season, while other leagues are starting their three week playoff bracket.  I’m finding myself playing for something in almost every league I’m still active in.

One of my leagues has a five way tie for the final two playoff spots, with the tiebreaker being total points.  I hold the most points in the group, thanks to Steve Slaton, Aaron Rodgers and Brian Westbrook in week 13, but I still need to win to get in.  I clinched the division in another league last week, but need a win this week to get the number three seed and avoid playing a strong number one team in week 15.  My family league is starting the playoffs this week, with my wife cruising to first place in the league, and a first round bye, thanks in large part to a pre-season cheat sheet, and season long waiver wire and start sit advice from a fantasy expert that she considers extremely sexy.  That’s not exactly true.  She finished first, got the bye, and followed my advice, but her feelings towards me probably go in the following order:

1. Huge dork
2. Big nerd
3. I can’t believe he would write that, and just for that I’m going to wake him up because I have to go to work at 8:00 AM while he gets to sleep in and work at home
4. I wonder if he is going to shower today

Some of you may be looking for help in week 14 to get you in to the playoffs, or to get you a better spot in the first round.  Others may be looking for help in the playoffs, without having to worry about week 14.  I’ve got both situations covered in this week’s Waiver Wire Wonders.

Quarterbacks

Jeff Garcia tops the list of quarterbacks this week, not for his week 14 performance, but for his combined 31.5 points in weeks 15 and 16, making him one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football those weeks.  Tyler Thigpen struggled this past week, but is expected to return to the performance that saw him put up over 100 fantasy points in a five week span prior to week 13.

Then we’ve got the quarterbacks that are question marks.  There is doubt as to whether Kyle Orton can return to his early season success, whether Matt Hasselbeck can return to his 2007 success, whether Sage Rosenfels will keep the starting job with Matt Schaub healthy, and whether Joe Flacco can maintain the performance that has him ranked right outside of the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks.

Garcia and Thigpen easily top the list, with Garcia being the better option, even with one less point in week 14.  Thigpen gets some favorable opponents, like Denver in week 14, and San Diego in week 15.

Orton put up 87 fantasy points in a five week span between week three and week seven, an average of 17 points per week.  In the last four weeks he has averaged just nine points a week, but managed 11 points last week.  AccuScore has him averaging 12.83 points per week for the remainder of the season, throwing for at least 200 yards and a touchdown in each game.  You’re better off with Thigpen, but Orton is not a bad guy to go with.

I’ve closed the book on Hasselbeck, although a week 15 matchup against the Rams could cause me to take another peek.  Joe Flacco hasn’t been flashy, but he’s consistent, scoring double digit points in the last seven games.  His best week remaining is in week 14 against Washington.  After that he plays the Steelers and Cowboys, which will be tough matchups.

Rosenfels may be one of the better options on the waiver wire, ranking as the ninth best quarterback option in week 14 against the Packers.  If Schaub can’t return, I’d start Rosenfels in week 14 over anyone in the above group.  If Schaub is healthy, I’d start Schaub over anyone in the above group for the remainder of the season, and that includes Jeff Garcia.

Running Backs

I’m surprised by the amount of leagues that Peyton Hillis is available in.  Even before this past week’s breakout performance, Hillis had run for 4.4 yards per carry with three touchdowns the last two games.  Hillis is still available in over half of Yahoo leagues, about 40 percent of ESPN leagues, and about a quarter of CBS leagues.  I’m guessing there are some shallow leagues where Hillis goes un-owned, however, his performances over the next few weeks make him a must own in all leagues.

Hillis is the number two ranked running back this week in AccuScore simulations, running for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, and adding 25 receiving yards.  He comes up with another huge performance in week 16 against the Bills, running for 107 yards and a touchdown to once again be AccuScore’s second best running back option.  I’m strongly considering starting him this week over Marion Barber in my points per reception league, in a game that will decide the division.  As for the rest of the running backs, we have Pierre Thomas, Sammy Morris, Cedric Benson, Dominic Rhodes, and Derrick Ward this week.

Outside of Hillis, Thomas and Morris are the best options on the waiver wire.  Morris has been a touchdown vulture this year, finding the end zone in five of nine games.  He is reaching the end zone in half of simulations against Seattle, and running for 66 yards, making him a good play this week.

Pierre Thomas still managed to be productive last week, even with the return of Reggie Bush.  Thomas caught a 20 yard touchdown pass, and ran for 34 yards on the ground, but most importantly had 11 carries.  This week he is getting 54 rushing yards on 10 carries in AccuScore simulations, and scoring a touchdown in 66 percent of simulations.

Derrick Ward is a sleeper in what will probably be a grinding matchup against the Eagles.  Ward is running for 52 yards in AccuScore simulations, adding 21 receiving yards, and scoring a touchdown in over a third of simulations.

Dominic Rhodes is a good option for garbage time points this week, as Indianapolis will likely be running out the clock against the Bengals.  On that same note, he is a great play next week against the Detroit Lions, scoring a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations in that game.

Cedric Benson hasn’t done much lately, but is a good sleeper this week against the Colts’ poor run defense, and is a great sleeper in week 16 against the Browns, running for 70 yards on 20 carries in AccuScore simulations.

Wide Receivers

The wide receiver group isn’t providing much these days, outside of a few potential high reward type guys who are really only worthy of a flex spot.  The exception could be Amani Toomer, who could see a bump in production now that Plaxico Burress’ season is shot (no pun inten…ok, I intended that pun).  Joey Galloway and Ted Ginn Jr are providing consistent production, while Mark Bradley, Michael Jenkins, and Donnie Avery are all capable of big breakout performances.

Toomer is one of the top options on the waiver wire this week against the Eagles, and is doing even better next week against the Cowboys, catching four passes for 56 yards with a touchdown in 35 percent of simulations.

Galloway is the best of the group, averaging seven points a week, thanks to a monster performance in week 16 against the Chargers.  Galloway is putting up 58 yards with a touchdown in a third of simulations that week.

Ted Ginn Jr. provides extra value to those of you in PPR leagues.  Ginn is averaging four catches a week over the next three weeks, while catching for around 50 yards per game.

Bradley is the best option of the group this week, taking on the Denver Broncos.  Bradley is catching four passes for 50 yards with a touchdown in a third of simulations.

Jenkins is another guy who gets added value in PPR leagues, averaging three catches a week over the next three weeks, with at least 40 receiving yards in each game.  Jenkins has a better chance of reaching the end zone than Ginn Jr., scoring in a third of simulations on average.  He is a good play this week against the Saints in PPR leagues.

Avery has slipped since stringing together a few hot performances, putting up 17 fantasy points the last five weeks, after combining for 35 points in weeks seven and eight.  Avery is going up against Arizona this week, catching four passes for 50 yards.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss is probably seeing the biggest increase with the loss of Plaxico Burress, becoming the top tight end option on the waiver wire this week.  As for top tight end options, I consider Boss and Dustin Keller to be sleepers in the “must start” category for the remainder of the year.  Keller is killing in my PPR league, and gets enough yardage each week to be relevant in standard leagues.  Heath Miller is a great play this week against the Cowboys, but slips the next two weeks on the road against the Ravens and Titans.  John Carlson, Donald Lee, and Todd Heap are coming off big weeks, and may have more in store over the next few weeks.

Boss and Keller are easily the top options, ranking in the top ten in AccuScore simulations the next few weeks.

John Carlson is unlikely to repeat his 105 yard performance, combining for 117 receiving yards over the next three weeks in AccuScore simulations.

Donald Lee’s value lies heavily in his ability to reach the end zone, which makes him a good play this week, as he is scoring in half of simulations.

Heap has been too inconsistent this season, only really beating up on weak Houston and Cincinnati passing defenses.  AccuScore simulations give him a 67 percent chance of scoring one more touchdown this season.

Defense/Special Teams

This week the Indianapolis Colts and the Seattle Seahawks are AccuScore’s sleeper defensive units.  Here is how they break down:

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