Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The trade deadline is coming up in most leagues next week.  If your league does things right, your playoffs are in weeks 15 and 16, thus avoiding the mess that is a fantasy championship in week 17.  That leaves five weeks to go in the regular season.  If you’re currently sitting at 3-6 or 4-5, you are a long shot to make the playoffs, needing to win out from this point until the end of the season.  If you’re 7-2 or 6-3, you’ve got a great chance of reaching the playoffs, which means you need to start looking ahead to those important weeks at the end of the fantasy season.

Last week I tried to revive a team for a Wall Street Journal article , which the Fantasy Football Librarian compared to the fantasy football version of “What Not to Wear”.  I’m well aware of this show, as my wife watches it every single day before dinner.  I thought that would be a good idea for this column.  I could have people send in videos of their friends’ fantasy teams that need a lot of work done.  Then I could have those people talk about the players they wanted to add, only to bust in to the room and say “You don’t need to trade for T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  We’re trying to get you away from having T.J. Houshmanzadeh’s on your team, and move you towards something that would fit better, like Steve Smith.”  Then I could let them shop on the waiver wire, and review the finished product when they’re done.  I could even call the column “Who Not to Add”.

OK, so maybe I know a little too much about the “What Not to Wear” show, but like I said, my wife watches it every…single…day (and I swear they show five episodes in a row each day too).  I figured I would try this method on my own teams, because what better way to show you how to get things done than to show you what I would do?  I took two of my teams, one struggling team and one contending team, and dedicated these teams to improving for the remainder of the season.  I’m going to try and win out with the struggling team, while trying to improve my chances in the playoffs with my potentially playoff bound team.

The Strugglers

This team looked like it had so much promise.  Brian Westbrook dropped to me with the number four pick, thanks to Tom Brady going with the second pick.  I got Ryan Grant in the second round, who I was high on coming in to the season, but who absolutely tanked.  I took my number one receiver in the third, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and he has been less than impressive.  My next pick was my quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, who would be great if you got points for sacks.  I was saved a bit by taking Ronnie Brown in the fifth, and Lee Evans in the seventh rounds, along with adding Steve Slaton and Bernard Berrian on the waiver wire.

Here is my current starting lineup, with AccuScore’s weekly average points from week 10-14 in parenthesis:

QB – Ben Roethlisberger (12.9)

RB – Brian Westbrook (15.82)

RB – Ronnie Brown (16.08)

RB/WR – Steve Slaton (13)

WR – Lee Evans (9.76)

WR – Bernard Berrian (6.76)

TE – Heath Miller (4.38)

D/ST – Packers (12.06)

K – John Carney (8.34)

Average Weekly Points Weeks 10-14: 99.1

My running back situation is good, with Westbrook, Brown, and Slaton all producing well.  I also have Ryan Grant, averaging 10.1 points per week down the stretch in AccuScore simulations, and Jamaal Charles, averaging 11.1 points per week down the stretch in simulations.  My wide receivers are solid, as I have Houshmandzadeh (6.64) as a backup to Berrian, along with Vincent Jackson (6.54) as another backup.  I could use an upgrade at wide receiver, but that’s second to my needs at quarterback.

My backup to Roethlisberger is Marc Bulger (9.9), so I’m no sure thing at either position.  One team in my league is fortunate enough to have Aaron Rogers and Drew Brees, but has room for an upgrade at running back with banged up guys like Willie Parker and Steven Jackson, and a questionable week to week guy like Kevin Smith.  I send a feeler to let him know I’m interested in a quarterback, dangling Steve Slaton.  I figure I can afford Slaton, since the drop off from Slaton to Grant or Charles is about one or two points a week, and the upgrade from Roethlisberger to Rodgers is six points a week.  He sends a trade offer of Rodgers, Torry Holt, and Fred Taylor for Steve Slaton, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Ben Roethlisberger.

I know that I’ve got my upgrade at quarterback.  Now it’s time to work on upgrading the wide receiver spot.  AccuScore projects Holt to average 6.18 points per week down the stretch, which doesn’t give me an upgrade over Berrian.  This team also has Donald Driver, who is averaging 9.56 points per week in simulations.  I make a play for Driver and Kevin Smith, replacing Holt and Taylor.  I get a response with an offer of Ronnie Brown, Berrian, and Roethlisberger for Rodgers, Driver, and Smith.  I decide that Smith isn’t needed, as his value is about the same as Grant and Charles in simulations, so I respond with Slaton, Berrian, and Roethlisberger for Rodgers, Driver, and Taylor, and the deal is accepted.  The end result for my roster down the stretch is:

QB – Aaron Rodgers (18.36)

RB – Brian Westbrook (15.82)

RB – Ronnie Brown (16.08)

RB/WR – Jamal Charles (11.1)

WR – Lee Evans (9.76)

WR – Donald Driver (9.56)

TE – Heath Miller (4.38)

D/ST – Packers (12.06)

K – John Carney (8.34)

Average Weekly Points Weeks 10-14: 105.46 (a gain of 6.36 points per week)

Ideally I’d like to make some sort of move packaging Lee Evans or Donald Driver with Kevin Smith, Fred Taylor and/or TJ Houshmandzadeh, in an attempt to get an upgrade at wide receiver.  I also need to pick up a tight end for this week, as I don’t trust Miller’s health, and Miller is averaging 5.35 points per week from week 11-14, making him too valuable to drop.

Playoff Bound

With this team, I decided to do a few things different, taking Joseph Addai in the first (over Marion Barber like every other league), Carson Palmer in the second, Steve Smith in the third, Michael Turner in the fourth (the only draft that he slipped beyond the third for me), and guys like Wes Welker, Matt Forte, and Donald Driver.  After week one I sent Palmer packing for Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Royal, who I missed out on in the draft (someone, somehow, liked him more than I did).  I also dealt Matt Forte and Wes Welker for Ryan Grant and TJ Houshmandzadeh, figuring to see an upgrade at both spots.  A month later I dealt Grant and Houshmandzadeh for Chris Johnson and Anquan Boldin (while Boldin was hurt, and during Johnson’s bye week, following his bad game against the Ravens).

Here is my current starting lineup, with AccuScore’s weekly average points from week 10-14 in parenthesis, followed by AccuScore’s average points for the week 15 and 16 playoffs:

QB – Aaron Rodgers (18.36) (15.85)

RB – Chris Johnson (14.48) (12.5)

RB – Michael Turner (14.16) (10.4)

RB/WR – Joseph Addai (12) (12.55)

WR – Anquan Boldin (12.94) (13.25)

WR – Steve Smith (12.68) (12.4)

TE – Heath Miller/Marcedes Lewis (Starting Lewis in week 10) (5.35) (4.35)

D/ST – Packers (12.06) (11.25)

K – John Carney (7.14) (6.85)

Average Weekly Points Weeks 10-14: 109.17

Average Weekly Points Weeks 15-16: 99.4

The clear problem here is that my team is fine for the rest of the season, and is currently sitting in first place, so I have no ground to make up.  However, come playoff time I’m projected to lose ten points a week on average, and a big reason is the decline in production from Michael Turner, who goes up against Tampa Bay and Minnesota in the championship weeks.  I have an excess of wide receivers, like Eddie Royal, Donald Driver, and Kevin Curtis, so my ideal move would be dealing Turner and a guy like Royal for a top option like Tomlinson or Westbrook.

So far Turner has outscored Tomlinson by 13 points on the season, and Westbrook by eight points.  I’m also fortunate that the owner of Tomlinson is starting Greg Camarillo at wide receiver, making it likely that he’ll take my upgrade of Eddie Royal at wide receiver.  The Westbrook owner has Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes, and Mushin Muhammad, so I have no idea whether he views Royal as an upgrade.

If those two plans fail, my backup plan is Steven Jackson.  If it came to that I would be sneaky about it, waiting to deal Turner until after his game against the Saints, avoiding the risk of being without a running back for week ten (I don’t trust Addai to be healthy, plus he plays the Steelers, leaving me with just Kevin Smith and Chris Johnson).

Westbrook and Tomlinson are both an upgrade over Turner’s 14.16 weekly points for the remaining weeks of the regular season.  Westbrook is averaging 15.82 points per week in simulations, while Tomlinson is averaging 17.84 points per week for the remaining weeks.  Tomlinson is forecasted for an average of 14 points per week in the playoffs, while Westbrook is getting 18 points per week.  However, even with a red hot Michael Turner, and wide receiver help from Eddie Royal, I’m not guaranteed to get either player.  The most likely outcome is Turner for Jackson.  Jackson is averaging 14 points per week down the stretch, giving me the same production as Turner, but is averaging 17.25 points per week in the playoffs, giving my team an upgrade to 106.25 points per week in the playoffs, an increase of 6.85 points per week, putting me in line with my regular season projections.

My main goal is to keep Boldin, Smith, Rodgers, Johnson, and Addai, while upgrading Turner.  This means I will pay any combination of Turner, Driver, Royal, and Kevin Smith to get Tomlinson and Westbrook.  So if the situation comes up and I’m asked for Turner, Driver, and Royal for Westbrook, I won’t think about it for a second.  From this point on my bench won’t win this league, my starting lineup will, and I’ll make any move to improve that starting lineup, both for the rest of the season, and during the playoffs.  I suggest the same approach for your teams down the stretch.