Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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Fantasy sports have a tendency to imitate the real sports they are based on.  Baseball is a long season where weekly variances don’t matter as much as your long term record, which is the same concept that makes roto-style fantasy baseball preferred over head to head.  Football has fewer games, so a few bad weeks can be the difference between making the playoffs and going home early.  Head to head is the only way fantasy football should be played, and just like the real sport, it doesn’t matter if you’re the best team in the league, just as long as you are the better team on any given week.

In baseball you see trades being made constantly, with tons of activity surrounding the July 31^st trade deadline.  Fantasy baseball usually sees a lot of trades, with people frantically scrambling to make deadline deals once the trade deadline rolls around sometime in August.  Football has a trade deadline, but it usually passes right around the time you ask yourself “when is the NFL’s trade deadline this year?”  That is usually because there is very little trading going on during the NFL season.

The fantasy football trade deadline passed in most leagues this week.  While going through my various leagues, I couldn’t help but notice the lack of moves made in each league.  One league saw two trades being made, with one of those coming from me.  Another league saw two minor deals, but no major names being dealt.  I was responsible for three of six trades in another league, and two of my trading partners were responsible for the other two deals.  In my family league yesterday I approved the first trade agreed upon this season.

I have several theories on this.  The first is that people are afraid to make a deal.  No one will take a risk on a trade, and most people won’t even take an even looking trade, for fear that they might “lose” the deal.  There’s also the veto process to go through, which I can’t stand in any league.  It’s hard enough to get two people to agree on the values of a group of players.  It’s impossible to get ten other owners to agree as well.

The biggest reason probably lies in the positions.  In baseball you have catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, three to five outfielders, a utility player, starting pitchers, closers, and possibly middle and corner infield spots.  What do you really trade for in football?  Quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.

Your options are limited if you want a quarterback.  You need to find someone who landed Drew Brees and Jay Cutler in the draft, and hope they are willing to part with one of their quarterbacks for what you are selling.  Most people aren’t trading running backs due to the value that is placed on that position, and while there are several top wide receiver options, if you try trading for one, you’re going to be expected to part with a running back to get a deal done.  The end result is that there are at least nine starting positions you can trade for in fantasy baseball, not counting pitchers, and there are five to six starting positions to trade for in fantasy football, depending on whether you use a flex spot, or an extra wide receiver.

That’s not saying you can’t make a deal, but it’s saying that it will be harder to make a deal.  I managed to make a few myself this season, and since the trade deadline has passed in most leagues, I’m going to run through my favorites for the last edition of this column in the 2008 season.  If you still can make trades in your league, feel free to leave a question in the comments section and I’ll get back to you with my thoughts.

Carson Palmer for Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Royal

I wasn’t big on Palmer, but somehow ended up with him on my team (aka, I got to the draft ten minutes late, and he was auto-selected to my team in the second round).  I also missed out on my boy Eddie Royal, and was not successful with my attempts to trade for him before week one.  Rodgers did well in week one, and Palmer struggled, but his value was still higher than Rodgers.  Despite Royal’s big game, this owner had Chris Chambers, Hines Ward, and DeSean Jackson, who combined for 39 points in week one.

Royal has averaged 7.87 points per week since the deal before week two, slightly better than Donald Driver’s average of 7.62 points per week.  Rodgers averaged 18.5 points per week, while Palmer hasn’t played in a game since week five due to an injury.

Matt Hasselbeck, Greg Jennings, and Steve Smith for Drew Brees, Chris Johnson, and Santonio Holmes

I made this deal prior to week four with a guy who had Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers as his quarterbacks, and Santonio Holmes and David Patten as his wide receivers.  I had Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Greg Jennings, and Dwayne Bowe at wide receiver, Jason Campbell and Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, and a struggling Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs as my only running backs (I had Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood, and Chester Taylor, but we’re only counting reliable running backs).

I wanted to give up Moss over Jennings or Smith, but he wasn’t having it, so I took the risk that Bowe/Moss/Holmes would be good enough, especially with the upgrades at running back and quarterback.  My lineup before the trade was Campbell at quarterback, Jennings and Smith at wide receiver, and Moss in my flex position.  My lineup after the trade was Brees at quarterback, Moss and Bowe at wide receiver, and Johnson in my flex position.  The average points per week for each group since week four:

Starters before the trade: 44.33 points per week

Starters after the trade: 52.83 points per week

Brees gave me an average of 11 extra points per week.  Moss and Bowe averaged about six fewer points per week than Jennings and Smith, and Johnson averaged about four extra points per week than Moss would have given me in the flex spot.  This is my favorite example of trading from a strength to improve your weaknesses.

Rashard Mendenhall for Reggie Bush

Pre-season hype can be a wonderful thing.  Bush was fresh off a season where he ran for 581 yards, four touchdowns, and added 417 yards and two touchdowns through the air.  Not bad, but not exactly good considering the expectations on Bush.  Mendenhall was an unknown, but at this point he was projected to get considerable time in the Steelers’ backfield.  This trade was offered to me, I took it, and I haven’t looked back in that league.  I’m guessing the guy who offered me the deal is a Steelers homer, or hates Reggie Bush.  Some may say I’m a Steelers homer, but when it comes down to my real team and my fantasy team, the real team is getting thrown under the bus every time.

Michael Turner for Chris Johnson and Tony Scheffler

I made this trade in the AccuScore league, along with another variation of Turner for Johnson in another league, all after Turner’s big week in week three.  At the time Turner had scored 66 points, while Johnson had 36 points.  I felt that Turner had beat up on some weak rushing defenses (Detroit and Kansas City), but didn’t feel he could maintain that pace, due to his poor performance against Tampa Bay.

Since the deal, Johnson has averaged 13.5 points per week, while Turner has averaged 10.17 points per week.  Johnson has outscored Turner every week, with the exception of week five (against the Ravens) and week ten (against the Bears).  That’s probably all I should say about the deal, since I made the trade with my boss.  Or, on the other hand, maybe I should keep pointing out my exceptional player evaluation skills in order to prove my worthiness as a fantasy sports analyst to the guy who signs my paychecks.

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jwommackj said:

Hey Tim, Unlike my previous posts to you, this time I've actually MADE the trade and wanted to get your take on it. I GAVE: Calvin Johnson, Earnest Graham and Derrick Mason I GOT: THE Steve Smith and Reggie Bush I figured that Calvin for Smith was even, with Smith have a little more upside in the consistency category. Mason wasn't going to start for me with Colston and DeSean Jackson in my lineup. Bush is a little gamble, but I figured that he has a greater possibility of getting touches than Graham, who I've been wanting to deal for weeks now. I really didn't think the guy would accept my offer. But the risk that is Bush could pay off especially if Portis isn't able to go this week (doesn't look like it). I'm sitting at 4-6 and a 2-1 run over the next three weeks gets me in the playoffs. So I'm hoping that Bush and Hightower will be able to keep me in the game if Portis is out. Do you think my move helped or hurt me in my run for the playoffs? Also, should I start Carlson or Scheffler this week? My NEW lineup: QB: Rivers RB: Portis, Bush, Hightower, Rice WR: Smith, Colston, Jackson, Holmes, Camarillo TE: Carlson, Scheffler K: who cares (haha) Def: NYG Also always, love the site!! Jason

November 13, 2008

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