Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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With the Phillies winning the World Series last night, I couldn’t help but notice an emerging trend in professional sports: you don’t necessarily have to be the best team in your sport to win the championship.  The Phillies may be the World Series champions, but in no way were they the best team in baseball this year.  The Giants won the Super Bowl last year, but you can’t tell me they were the best team in the NFL last year.

The Phillies were neck and neck with the Mets in the East until New York went 3-6 in their final nine games, while the Phillies went 6-3.  The Phillies needed to go 17-8 in the month of September to make the playoffs.  The Giants weren’t even the best team in their division last year, and the team we saw in the playoffs was nothing like the team we saw in their first 15 games.  The Phillies and Giants didn’t have to be the best teams in their league to win a championship.  They just needed to be good enough to make the playoffs, and they needed to get hot at the right time, which happened to be the playoffs.

If you put the Giants up against the Patriots, Colts, or Cowboys from last year, I’m not taking the Giants.  That’s not saying the Giants couldn’t win those games, just that the odds of them winning isn’t as high.  Same with the Phillies against the Cubs, Red Sox, and Angels.  In a best of seven series, I’m not taking the Phillies.  That’s not saying the Phillies can’t get hot at the right time and win.  It’s just saying they weren’t the best team in baseball in 2008.

The same thing goes in fantasy football.  You don’t need the best player at each position.  All you need is a good player that can take you to the playoffs, and get hot at the right time.  Last week I ran down my list of players to trade for in the playoff weeks.  This week I’m going to take a look at the players currently ranked number one at each position, and give you a Philadelphia Phillies type player, one that is good enough to make the playoffs, and can win you a title by getting hot at the right time.

Philip Rivers for Kurt Warner

Rivers currently leads fantasy quarterbacks, thanks to a big performance against the Saints last Sunday.  Rivers has yet to score below double digit fantasy points this season, but has been up and down the last five weeks, throwing for just one touchdown in games against Miami, Oakland, and Buffalo, but throwing for three touchdowns against New England and New Orleans.

Warner currently is the fourth ranked quarterback, and while he only has one three touchdown game, compared to five for Rivers, Warner has been more consistent, throwing for at least two touchdowns his last six games.

AccuScore projects Warner to outscore Rivers by 38 points over the remainder of the season.  The week nine bye for Rivers plays a part in that, but even when taking the week nine results out, Warner is outscoring Rivers by 20 points.  The only week Rivers is projected to beat out Warner is in week 13 when Warner plays at Philadelphia, and Rivers is home against the Falcons.  Warner is projected to outscore Rivers every other week, including giving you an additional six points combined in weeks 15 and 16.

Clinton Portis for Steven Jackson

Clinton Portis has been torching defenses the last few weeks, running for no less than 121 yards in his last five games, and totaling seven touchdowns on the season.  Portis has scored double digit points in every game since week one, and has topped 20 points in four of the last seven weeks.

Steven Jackson currently ranks 11^th amongst running backs.  Jackson had a strong week in week seven against Dallas, but missed week eight against the Patriots, and has only scored one touchdown outside of week seven, that touchdown coming in week four.  He has only scored double digit points in three of the six weeks he has played.

AccuScore simulations have Jackson outscoring Portis by 34 points over the remainder of the season.  Like Rivers, Portis has a bye week which hurts his totals, but even if you take that bye week out, Jackson is still favored by 18 points.  There are only two weeks where Portis and Jackson are projected for the same amount of points, and those are week 11 and week 13.  Jackson is winning every other week, including five extra points in weeks 15 and 16 combined.

Santana Moss for Roddy White

When you think about the top wide receivers in fantasy football, you think Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, or Anquan Boldin.  However, Santana Moss is currently the top wide receiver this year, with Roddy White in second place.  Most people aren’t going to deal Fitzgerald, Jennings, Johnson, or Boldin for Moss, due to his inconsistent play.  Moss exploded for 26 points last week against the Lions, and 13 points against the Browns in week seven, but that follows two weeks where he combined for two catches, 22 yards, and no touchdowns.

White is also not a guy people think about as a top wide receiver, but he ranks second in fantasy football, and has been a bit more consistent than Moss, scoring double digit points in four of his last five games, with five touchdowns over that stretch.

AccuScore has White outscoring Moss by 18 points for the remainder of the season.  Since Moss is a Redskin, he has a week 10 bye, which means you will get the extra week from White.  White is reaching double digit points every week for the remainder of the season in AccuScore simulations, giving you a boost of two extra points in the week 15 and 16 playoff weeks.  Moss, on the other hand, is putting up double digit points in just four of the final eight weeks of the fantasy season.

Deals of the Week

No deals this week, although I’ve got several offers out for Roddy White in various leagues.

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twilliams said:

I would make the Rivers for Warner trade. As for Portis, it's hard to deal a guy who has been carrying your team, but if you can get an upgrade, pull the trigger.

November 02, 2008

jwommackj said:

Hi Tim, The site has turned me into a stat analyzing junkie complete with spreadsheets, averages and percentages. My wife thanks you. hahahaha.. Your article was perfect timing because I've got someone in my league that's shopping Warner (he's got Peyton Manning). I've got Rivers so I never really considered taking a flyer on him, until now. I compared the passing defenses that each QB will face through Week 16 to see who had the "easier" schedule. The average ranking for the defenses that Rivers will face: 10.88. He faces the top two passing defenses (Pittsburgh and Indy) in Weeks 11 & 12. The lowest ranked passing defense he will face is in Week 13 against Atlanta (24). Warner's will face defenses that have an average ranking of 19, thanks to facing the 26th-ranked Rams twice. His toughest passing defense comes in Week 12 against the Giants (5). After seeing all of the stats, I'm still hesitant to pull the trigger due to concerns of Warner not being able to finish the season. My backup right now is Jeff Garcia who's schedule is actually EASIER than Warner's (avg. pass defense ranking 20), although he's not going to put up the gaudy numbers like Warner. You know I've been trying to make moves for the past few weeks to try and get me over the hump. Is this the move to make? I've also been concerned about Portis and all the punishment he's taking and he's facing the toughest rush defenses (avg. rank 9.75). It's just hard to let go of the only horse that's been pulling my wagon. I'm currently sitting in a 3-5 and I'm tied with four other players in a 12-team league. I've got the second highest point total so I'm currently in 7th (eight teams make the playoffs). Current lineup: QB: Rivers, Garcia RB: Portis, Graham, Rhodes, Taylor, Hightower WR: Colston, DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Santonio Holmes, Camarillo Can't wait to hear back. Jason

October 30, 2008

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