Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Baltimore Ravens easily handled Miami’s Wild Cat offense, forcing five Dolphins turnovers to win 27-9.  The Ravens take on the number one seed Tennessee Titans in a battle of two very similar teams.  Both teams are built on strong defenses.  Both teams have strong running games.  Neither team relies on their quarterback to win the game, but instead relies on their quarterbacks to not lose the game.  Neither team has a noticeable star at receiver, although each team has guys who get the job done, like Derrick Mason and Justin Gage.

With two very similar teams, it is no surprise that AccuScore simulations have this game forecasted to be a close one.  In 10,000 simulations, AccuScore projects an upset, with Baltimore winning 52.2 percent of simulations against the Titans by an average score of 18-17.

Make no mistake about it

Joe Flacco and Kerry Collins are in very similar roles.  Neither quarterback is expected to carry his offense.  As a result, neither quarterback will put up a monster stat line.  Their primary roles are to limit the mistakes made on offense, allowing the running game and the defense to win the game for their team.  Both quarterbacks are putting up similar numbers in AccuScore simulations.  Flacco is throwing for 194 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Collins is throwing for 188 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.

The key for each quarterback in this close game will be limiting mistakes.  AccuScore ran custom simulations of each quarterback going without an interception to see how much of a factor the interceptions play in this game.  When Joe Flacco goes without throwing an interception, the Ravens see their chances of winning jump to 64.9 percent, winning by an average score of 20-14.  When Kerry Collins goes without an interception, the Titans take the advantage, winning 62.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 19-15.

Each quarterback is forecasted to throw one interception, but how much would it hurt the Titans or Ravens if one of their quarterbacks threw for more than one interception?  In custom AccuScore simulations where Kerry Collins throws for two interceptions, the Ravens are winning a commanding 72.4 percent of simulations by an average score of 22-14.  When Joe Flacco throws two interceptions, the Titans hold a big advantage, winning 67.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-15.  Neither quarterback will have a major impact on their team winning, but each quarterback can have a significant impact on their team’s chances of losing.

Running the offense

The reason neither quarterback is expected to do much is because each team features very strong running attacks.  The Titans are led by Chris Johnson and LenDale White, who combined for just over 2000 yards on the ground in the regular season.  The Ravens have seen their running game revived with the emergence of Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee, who combined for over 1500 yards on the ground, with Ray Rice adding enough to give the Ravens running backs over 2000 yards on the season.

Each running back duo is serving as the bulk of their offense in AccuScore simulations of this second round matchup.  McClain and McGahee are combining for 103 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, while Johnson and White are combining for 87 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries.  The Ravens hold a slight advantage, with their running back duo topping the century mark, and that could explain why they hold the slight advantage in this game.  To confirm this, let’s look at how Tennessee would do by increasing their running game efforts, or by doing a better job of shutting down Baltimore.

In custom AccuScore simulations where the Titans hold McClain and McGahee to 87 rushing yards or less, Tennessee wins 76 percent of the time, winning by an average score of 21-13.  When Chris Johnson and LenDale White combine for 103 rushing yards like McClain and McGahee, the Titans take a bigger advantage, winning 82.4 percent of custom simulations.

The strong running game helps Tennessee in two ways.  First, it removes pressure from Kerry Collins.  When Johnson and White combine for 103 rushing yards, Kerry Collins is seeing a drop of 27 percentage points in his chances of throwing an interception.  The Titans are also controlling the game when Johnson and White are this effective, which is resulting in fewer carries for the Ravens running backs.

Defense wins championships

For all of the talk about the offense, the winner of this game will be decided on the defensive side of the ball.  This can already be shown by the effects of limiting the running games, and by the impact of intercepting the opposing quarterback.  Each team is putting up a similar effort on defense, with both teams forcing two turnovers.  The Ravens defense holds a slight advantage, allowing 34 fewer yards, but both teams are allowing a similar amount of yardage and points.

Due to both defenses playing a strong game, the outcome of this contest will be played out over a battle of field position.  That will make turnovers a crucial aspect to a victory.  In simulations where Baltimore records an extra turnover, the Ravens see their chances of winning increase to 72.9 percent.  In simulations where Tennessee records an extra turnover, the Titans are winning 65.9 percent of simulations, taking the advantage over the Ravens.