Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The last time the Steelers and Chargers met, the Steelers won 11-10 on a very controversial finish.  The finish wasn’t controversial in a matter that could have decided the game.  The controversy came from a last second play where Steelers safety Troy Polamalu appeared to have tipped a lateral, only to return the fumble for a touchdown.  The lateral in question was reversed to be ruled as an incomplete pass, leaving the Steelers with an 11-10 victory, and leaving a lot of people angry in Vegas.

This time around the Steelers are hoping for a similar end result, a win, although without the extra controversy.  AccuScore simulations have Pittsburgh getting that win, beating the Chargers in 60.6 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-18.

Franchise Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers were both drafted in the first round of the 2004 draft, with Rivers going fourth, and Roethlisberger going eleventh.  Since that point the two players have taken different routes to their current success.  Roethlisberger led the Steelers to a 15-1 record in his rookie year, and went on to win the Super Bowl the very next season.  He currently holds a 5-2 record in the playoffs heading in to this weekend against the Chargers.

Rivers sat behind Drew Brees for two seasons, only to lead the Chargers to three straight AFC West titles.  San Diego made the AFC Championship game last year, but lost 21-12 to the Patriots, which helps to give Rivers a career 3-2 record in the playoffs going up against the Steelers this weekend, with both losses coming to New England.

Roethlisberger is putting up the better game this weekend in AccuScore simulations, throwing for 233 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.  Rivers is throwing for 201 yards, one touchdown, and one interception to keep the Chargers close.

Reliance on the running game

Both quarterbacks have shown they can carry their team.  Rivers is coming off a breakthrough season this year, throwing for 4009 yards, 34 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.  Roethlisberger struggled this year thanks to protection issues, but threw for 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last year, and was a key player in the Steelers’ playoff run in 2005.  However, each team relies more on a strong running game than on their franchise quarterbacks.  For the Chargers, that could hurt this weekend with LaDainian Tomlinson expected to be in another limited role.

The Steelers have a much better run defense than the Indianapolis Colts, and it is showing in simulations, as Darren Sproles is running for 57 yards on 14 carries against the Steelers.  Michael Bennett is adding 11 more yards, but the Chargers aren’t getting it done on offense, putting the pressure on Rivers.

San Diego had five games this season where their top two running backs ran for 68 yards or less.  They went 1-4 in those games, including a loss to the Steelers, and Rivers threw for five touchdowns and four interceptions, or about one touchdown and one interception per game, similar to what we are seeing in AccuScore simulations for Sunday.  Tomlinson struggled with 57 yards against the Steelers last time, so to expect much more from Sproles is asking for a bit much.  In fact, AccuScore gives Sproles a 2.8 percent chance of repeating his performance from last week by running for 105 yards.  In that rare event, the Chargers are winning 71.6 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 25-19.

On the other side of the field, Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore are combining for 96 rushing yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, with Gary Russell adding enough to get the Steelers over the century mark.  The Steelers are 8-0 on the season when their running backs combine for over 100 rushing yards, and 4-4 in the games where their backs run for less than 100 yards.  In custom simulations where San Diego is able to hold the Steelers to under 100 rushing yards, the Chargers are winning 63.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 22-18.

No pressure on Ben

The big problem for the Steelers this season has been the pass rush.  Pittsburgh’s offensive line has allowed 49 sacks this season, or an average of three per game.  The only teams worse than the Steelers in this area are the 0-16 Lions, the 4-11-1 Bengals, and the 7-9 49ers.  The pass rush provides a major problem for the Steelers when the game is put in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, as he is constantly under pressure in the pocket.  That is why an effective running game is essential for the Steelers.

San Diego is recording two and a half sacks on average in AccuScore baseline simulations.  When the Chargers get that extra half sack they are still slight underdogs, with the Steelers winning 50.5 percent of simulations.  The reason is that Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore are still combining for over 90 rushing yards.  This means that the game is still being won on the ground for the Steelers, and since the game isn’t in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, the increased amount of sacks won’t hurt the Steelers as much.

In short, for the Chargers to overcome the AccuScore simulations this week, they will need to focus on shutting down the Pittsburgh running game, which will put the game in Ben Roethlisberger’s hands, and make those sacks more costly.  In custom simulations where the Chargers neutralize the Steelers running game, and record three sacks, San Diego sees their chances of winning jump by 33.1 percentage points, winning by an average score of 23-17, with Ben Roethlisberger seeing his interception total jump 32 percentage points.