Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Giants and Eagles have played twice this year, with each team winning on the road.  That does not bode well for the Giants this weekend as they host the Eagles in the second round of the NFL playoffs.  Fortunately for New York, AccuScore has simulated this game 10,000 times to find that New York has a 56.2 percent chance of winning, by an average score of 22-20.

For the Eagles, this game is playing out similar to the forecasts against the Vikings last week.  In that game, Brian Westbrook was held to 56 rushing yards in simulations, only for Donovan McNabb to step up and lead the Eagles to victory.  The game played out in a similar manner, with Westbrook being held to 38 rushing yards on 20 carries.  However, the final nail in the coffin for Minnesota was a 71 yard screen pass from McNabb to Westbrook, putting the Eagles up by two scores with not much time remaining in the fourth quarter.

This week, Westbrook is being held to 59 rushing yards by the Giants defense, with McNabb saving the day once again with 258 passing yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.  The problem is that the Giants offense is doing a much better job than Minnesota last week, with Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward leading the way with 134 rushing yards and a touchdown.  Eli Manning is throwing for 208 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with two or more touchdowns in 40 percent of simulations.

McNabb leading the way

If you listen to irrational Eagles fans, you would assume that Donovan McNabb was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, incapable of leading the Eagles to victory.  The fact is that there are very few quarterbacks who the Eagles could do a better job with, especially in this weekend’s game against the Giants.

In two games this season, McNabb has thrown for four touchdowns and one interception against the Giants.  That interception is significant, as it is McNabb’s first interception against the Giants since the 2003 season.  During that time span, McNabb has completed 60 percent of his passes, while averaging about 232 passing yards per game, and about two touchdowns per game against the Giants.  Those numbers are slightly inflated by his massive 2004 season, thanks to help from Terrell Owens, but even without the 2004 games, McNabb has averaged 210 passing yards and 1.4 touchdowns against the Giants in that stretch.

In custom AccuScore simulations where McNabb goes without throwing an interception, the Eagles become the favorites, winning 54.4 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 21-20.  Based on AccuScore baseline simulations, the Eagles aren’t going to get much from their running game this week, which will put the ball in McNabb’s hands.  That gives the Eagles a good chance of winning based on McNabb’s low turnover history against the Giants.

Dominating the running game

In both games this season, the team that dominated the running game ended up winning.  Philadelphia out-ran New York 144 to 88 in week 16, winning 20-14.  In a similar fashion, New York out-ran Philadelphia 219-106 earlier in the season, winning 26-21.  AccuScore’s baseline simulations have the Giants winning the running game this weekend, out-running the Eagles 152 to 92, thanks to 134 yards from Jacobs and Ward.  That raises the question, how much can the Eagles improve their chances by either stopping the New York running game, or improving their own running game?

In custom simulations where Philadelphia holds Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward to under 100 rushing yards, the Eagles take a big advantage, winning 78.4 percent of AccuScore simulations.  In this scenario, Eli Manning is seeing an increase of 24 percentage points in his interception total.

Brian Westbrook and Correll Buckhalter are combining for 80 rushing yards on 20 carries this weekend in baseline simulations.  When the two running backs combine for over 100 rushing yards, the Eagles are winning 71.4 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-18.  The Eagles have a better chance by containing Jacobs and Ward, but a solid effort by their own running game still gives them a good shot to win.