Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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When the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals met earlier this season, the Panthers came back from a 17-3 deficit, scoring three touchdowns in the third quarter to go on and win 27-23.  Kurt Warner put up a monster game, throwing for 381 yards and two touchdowns, but DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith countered that with 108 rushing yards and a touchdown from Williams, and 117 receiving yards and two touchdowns from Smith.

AccuScore has the Panthers as heavy favorites going in to this weekend’s contest, with Carolina winning 79.1 percent of simulations by an average score of 30-19.  Williams and Smith are once again combining for a big performance, with Williams running for 113 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries, while Smith is catching six passes for 94 yards and a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations.

Kurt Warner is countering with 258 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but the Arizona running game is limited, with Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower being held to just 48 yards on 19 carries.  Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are combining for ten catches, 132 yards, and a touchdown, although with Boldin’s health in question, the Cardinals could have to rely on Steve Breaston to step up.  Current AccuScore simulations project Breaston to have a bigger role with Boldin banged up, and Breaston is responding with five catches for 56 yards.

Smith and Williams leading the way

It was around the time of their last meeting against Arizona that DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith started their dominant runs, leading Carolina to a 7-2 finish on the season, and leading many fantasy football owners to championships.  In those nine games, Williams ran for just over 1100 yards, with an amazing 16 rushing touchdowns, almost an average of two per game.  Meanwhile, in that time span, Steve Smith caught 50 passes for 925 yards and four touchdowns, catching for over 100 yards in five of the last six games.

Both players are forecasted for big performances against the Cardinals, with Williams running for 113 yards and a touchdown, while Smith is catching six passes for 94 yards, with a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations.  That raises the question of how the Panthers would fare without each performance.

In simulations where Williams is contained, which means less than 100 rushing yards for the Panthers and no rushing touchdowns for Williams, the Cardinals are winning 70.1 percent of simulations, winning by an average score of 24-18.  It should be noted that AccuScore gives this a 3.8 percent chance of happening.

The simulations where Smith is contained don’t hurt as much, with the Panthers seeing little change in their chances of winning.  That is because the running game is still effective, and Mushin Muhammad is stepping in as the primary target for Jake Delhomme.  When the running game fails, the passing game is also suffering, with Jake Delhomme seeing an increase of 48 percentage points in his interception total.  So while Smith has been dominant this season, DeAngelo Williams is the most valuable player for the Panthers.

No Boldin?

With Anquan Boldin suffering from a strained hamstring, his status for this weekend remains in question.  Current baseline simulations have Boldin playing in a reduced role, similar to last week, although like last week, he is still having an impact on the game.  In a game against a powerful offense like Carolina, featuring two solid weapons in Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams, Boldin’s talent is definitely needed to keep Arizona in this game.  This is especially true with the way the Arizona running game is forecasted to perform.

In custom AccuScore simulations where Boldin misses the game, Arizona has almost no shot of winning, with Carolina winning 90 percent of simulations by an average score of 31-18.  Steve Breaston is replacing Boldin on the field, and doing a solid job, but that leaves one less option for Warner, who is seeing his interception total jump by 57 percentage points without Boldin.  The absence of Boldin leaves Larry Fitzgerald in line for a big game, as he is catching eight passes for 143 yards and a touchdown, but the Cardinals running game is being totally shut down in this scenario, as the defense has one less star receiver to cover, which is one more defender focused on stopping the running game.