Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

December has arrived and all the stores have raised their holiday decorations. The Salvation Army has their bell ringers outside grocery and convenient stores, Rockefeller Center is ready to light the tree and the NFL playoffs are drawing near.

Only four more weeks stand between twelve teams and a chance at Super Bowl immortality. According to AccuScore’s playoff projection, the AFC still has ten teams with a percentage chance (whether large or small) at playing the postseason, while the NFC has 12.

But not all 22 teams with a percentage chance will make it. Ten of those teams will be playing golf or spending a little extra time with their families. After Week 13, there are a few teams that practically guaranteed that in four weeks their season is over.

AFC

San Diego Chargers – It’s amazing to watch a team with arguably one of the best players in football flounder as the season draws closer to an end. LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers lost their third straight game Sunday as LT’s former backup Michael Turner and the Atlanta Falcons walked into Qualcomm Stadium and put down the AFC West Champions. Although the next two games favor the Chargers getting back on a winning streak (vs. Oakland, @ Kansas City), Norv Turner can only sit back and watch as the Denver Broncos take the division. With Sunday’s loss and Denver’s shocking win over the New York Jets, Mike Shanahan has a three game lead in the division with four to play. San Diego still has an 8.9 chance of making the playoffs, but would need to win out and hope Denver drops its last four games. That’s almost like needing a 99-yard Hail Mary for a touchdown in order to win. – Very doubtful.

Buffalo Bills – Although the Bills came into Week 13 with only a 19.8 percent chance of postseason play, they were still only two games back of the Jets and had plenty of divisional battles to gain ground and make the playoffs. All Dick Jauron’s team had to do was take care of business outside their division against lesser opponents – like the San Francisco 49ers. However, despite Marshawn Lynch rushing for 134 yards, the Bills were unable to put a touchdown on the board against a team that was allowing 28.2 points per game. Ryan Lindell has Buffalo fans crying for Scott Norwood as he missed two field goals, including a 20-yard gimmee in the second quarter. The Bills playoff projection percentage dropped to 4.7 percent, almost clinching their ninth straight season without a postseason appearance. Buffalo’s last playoff game – the Music City Miracle.

New England Patriots – Bill Belichick chances at a sixth straight playoff berth took a large hit on Sunday as his team gave up a rare five turnovers against the No. 1 defense in the land. Matt Cassel, who had thrown back-to-back 400-yard games, came back to earth as he threw two interceptions, no touchdowns and only 169 yards. Now the Patriots find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking up at the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens for the wild card, but still only one game behind the New York Jets for the division. Matt Cassel and his team have a playoff projection of 43.6 percent, but an easy schedule could have them leapfrog one of those three teams and sneak in for the sixth straight time.

NFC

Green Bay Packers – The old saying goes – defense wins championships. If that is the case, Green Bay is far from a championship team. In two straight losses, the Packers have given up 86 points and went from NFC North favorite to long shot. Questionable play calling by Mike McCarthy had the Packers stuffed at the one by Carolina twice, and in essence their playoff hopes crushed. Minnesota’s victory Sunday Night helped dropped the Packers playoff percentage to 16.8, and the only way they play in January is if the Vikings slip up and Green Bay can win the division. This will be a tough pill to swallow, as Brett Favre looks poised for a playoff run in New York.

Washington Redskins – Another team becomes a victim of the juggernaut New York Giants. For the last five weeks, the Giants have easily defeated teams with postseason aspirations, and Week 13 was no different. The Redskins desperately needed a win to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys and the entire NFC South, but instead were only able to muster up one touchdown on a 29-yard reverse. Other than that, Clinton Portis was held to 22 yards and Jim Zorn’s offense just couldn’t get anything going. The Skins now fall to 7-5, still have games against Baltimore and Philadelphia and only have a 19.1 playoff projection percentage. Losing three of their last four doesn’t help the Redskins hopes of playing in January.

New Orleans Saints – Drew Brees and his offense gave Saints’ fans hope when they dropped 51 points on the Packers Monday Night to get right back in the race. But playing in arguably one of the toughest divisions can knock a team off its cloud rather quickly. That’s exactly what the tough defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did on Sunday. Causing three Brees interceptions, the Buccaneers kept the NFC South home stand trend alive and knocked New Orleans out of the playoff chase. A playoff projection percentage of 8.3 is 18.1 percent less than it was a week ago, and with games against Chicago, Carolina and Atlanta, a return to the postseason doesn’t look possible. At least they can help in making the Detroit Lions go 0-16.

Many teams are ever so close to a guaranteed spot in January chase to the Super Bowl. Tennessee Titans and Arizona Cardinals have a playoff projection percentage of 100, while Pittsburgh, Denver, Indianapolis and the New York Giants’ percentage is all over 90.

Only a few spots are still available – since the NFC North and AFC West are guaranteed one spot. There is a great chance that numerous teams over .500 will miss the playoffs. The only question that remains, which teams will they be?

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No Joshin said:

I really thought the Saints could help out the Cowboys by beating Tampa Bay. So close. Now New Orleans is in big trouble. Having such a high-powered offense is nice, but if you can't stop anyone, it does you no good. Here's something interesting. As the season wraps up and tiebreakers become more important, here's a break down of each tiebreaker step and where each team stands in each tiebreaker, all the way from conference W-L-T record to net touchdowns in all games. Check it out... http://nojoshin.blogspot.com/2008/11/nfc-playoff-picture-week-13-wrap-up.html#tiebreaking

December 02, 2008

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