Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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AccuScore went 8-7 predicting game winners in week twelve of the NFL season.  This was easily the worst week for the AccuScore simulations after posting eleven winning weeks in a row.  That brings the overall record to 118-57-1 on the season for straight game winners.  New England, Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota, Oakland, Indianapolis, and the New York Jets were the seven teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week twelve.  To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Titans unbeaten no longer

The New York Jets brought the Tennessee Titans’ undefeated season to an end with a crushing 34-13 victory.  AccuScore simulations had the Titans winning 68.4 percent of simulations, by an average score of 22-16.  The biggest difference between the simulations and the result was the way the Jets dominated the running game on both sides of the ball.

Chris Johnson and LenDale White were forecasted to run for 138 yards on 29 carries in simulations.  They combined for 45 yards on 11 carries on Sunday, mostly because the Jets took the running game out of play with a 20-3 lead after three quarters.  Custom AccuScore simulations showed the Jets winning 85.7 percent of simulations by an average score of 20-10.

Thomas Jones and Leon Washington did a great job running the ball against the Titans’ defense, combining for 178 yards on 35 carries.  AccuScore simulations had the duo running for 88 yards on 24 carries.  In custom AccuScore simulations, the Jets won 84 percent of simulations by an average score of 24-14 when the Jets ran the ball this effectively.

Taming the wild cat

The Miami Dolphins introduced their wild cat offense in week three against the Patriots, leading to a 38-13 victory.  This time around the Patriots seemed to have the answer, winning 48-28 against the Dolphins.  AccuScore had Miami winning 55.8 percent of simulations, by an average score of 20-18.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams were combining for 118 yards on 29 carries in simulations, but only ran for 58 yards on 16 carries.  New England was winning 84.7 percent of custom AccuScore simulations by an average score of 24-13 when holding the Miami running game to this level of performance.

Matt Cassel also exploded for his second big week in a row, throwing for 415 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, despite being forecasted for 203 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in 60 percent of simulations.  The Patriots were winning the average simulation by a score of 37-30 when Cassel put up this level of performance.

Turner runs all over Carolina

Carolina had quietly built up one of the best records in the NFL heading in to this weekend, but that came crumbling down against the surprising Atlanta Falcons.  AccuScore had Carolina barely beating Atlanta in 52.9 percent of simulations, by an average score of 22-21.  Atlanta ended up dominating the Panthers by a score of 45-28.  The score would have been closer, but Atlanta outscored Carolina 21-7 in the final ten minutes of the game to pull away with a victory.

A big credit goes to Michael Turner for his performance.  Turner was forecasted for 85 yards on 20 carries, with a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations.  He ran for 117 yards on 24 carries, and scoring four touchdowns.  In custom AccuScore simulations, Atlanta was winning every time by an average score of 43-20 when Turner put up this level of performance.  It’s easy to see why Atlanta won when we see the effect Turner’s performance had on the team in simulations.

Quinn struggles for Cleveland

Cleveland was winning 55.4 percent of AccuScore simulations against the Texans by an average score of 24-23.  The Texans won 16-6 thanks to a horrible performance from Brady Quinn, which curiously led to his benching.  Quinn was forecasted to throw for 223 yards, one touchdown, and an interception in just half of simulations.  He threw for 94 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions, before being benched in favor of Derek Anderson, who threw for 51 yards and a touchdown.

Custom AccuScore simulations show that Cleveland was winning just 15.7 percent of simulations when Quinn performed this poorly.  The big question is, why would the Browns think of benching Quinn?  It’s realistic to think that the Browns could have a shot at the playoffs if they would have won that game, but how big of a shot would they have?  At 5-6 they would be two games back from the three teams currently tied for the wild card.  Those teams are Baltimore, New England, and Indianapolis.  If the Browns would have beaten the Texans, they would have needed to win four of their next five games, and hope that two of those teams finished 1-4, while also hoping that Miami and Buffalo finished 2-3 or worse.  In short, the Browns were a long shot to win, which makes you wonder why they would bench their quarterback of the future in the middle of his first bad game.

Colts win on Vinatieri field goal

San Diego was winning 61.9 percent of simulations against the Colts by an average score of 25-21.  The Colts won 23-20 on a late field goal, although the game was hardly that close.  The Colts had a ten point lead with less than six minutes to go, only to see San Diego come back and score ten points, leaving a minute and a half left on the clock.  Adam Vinatieri nailed a 51 yard field goal with no time on the clock to win the game for the Colts.

The Colts offense did a good job of limiting LaDainian Tomlinson.  Tomlinson was forecasted to run for 114 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.  He was held to 84 yards on 21 carries.  Indianapolis was winning 67.2 percent of custom simulations when holding Tomlinson to this type of performance, winning by an average score of 23-18.

Wrong on Jacksonville again

A few weeks ago I pointed out how bad AccuScore simulations are at predicting Jacksonville Jaguars games.  The record after this weekend falls to 2-9, as AccuScore had Jacksonville winning 60.9 percent of simulations by an average score of 21-17, while the Vikings ended up winning 30-12.

The problem usually lies in the inconsistent play of David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew.  This week Garrard was forecasted for 214 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception in 60 percent of simulations.  MJD was forecasted for 45 yards on 12 carries, with Fred Taylor adding 35 yards on 15 carries.  Garrard threw for 317 yards, but one touchdown and two interceptions.  MJD and Taylor combined for 24 yards on nine carries, with Jones-Drew carrying three times for four yards.

Minnesota was winning 84.1 percent of custom simulations when Garrard put up the type of performance we saw on Sunday.  The Vikings were winning 76.2 percent of simulations when holding Taylor and Jones-Drew to just 24 rushing yards.

Oakland upsets the Broncos

In the biggest upset of the week, AccuScore had the Denver Broncos winning 74.2 percent of simulations against the Oakland Raiders by an average score of 24-15, only for Oakland to win 31-10.  The last time these two teams met, Denver torched the Oakland secondary, with Jay Cutler throwing for 299 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.  This time was a different story.

Cutler was projected to throw for 234 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with multiple touchdowns in 40 percent of simulations.  Cutler was held to 204 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception this time around.  Oakland was winning 55.5 percent of AccuScore simulations when holding Cutler to this type of performance.

Credit also has to go to Oakland’s running game.  Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden were forecasted to run for 116 yards on 25 carries, with a touchdown in 60 percent of simulations.  The two backs combined for 145 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries on Sunday.  The Raiders were winning 85.2 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 32-20 when the running game was this effective.

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jlyventek said:

I could have done a better prediction by reading the local sports page. What kind of softwares do you people use to do the prediction. 10,000 simulation and this is what you have to show for your results. C'om on, shut this site down. Your wasting everyone's time.

November 24, 2008

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