Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

AccuScore went 9-6 predicting game winners in week thirteen of the NFL season.  That brings the overall record to 127-64-1 on the season for straight game winners.  Denver, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Carolina, and Atlanta were the six teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week thirteen.  To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Denver shuts down Favre

AccuScore projected the Jets to win 66.2 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 26-21.  Denver beat the Jets 34-17, thanks to a big performance from Peyton Hillis, and a good effort by the defense in shutting down Brett Favre.

Favre was forecasted to throw for 242 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in AccuScore simulations.  He threw for 247 yards and one interception, but no touchdowns.  In custom simulations where Favre was held without a touchdown pass, Denver won 72.8 percent of the time by an average score of 22-14.

Peyton Hillis ran for 129 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries.  Hillis was forecasted to run for 41 yards on ten carries, while Selvin Young was adding 42 yards on eight carries.  In custom AccuScore simulations where Hillis put up this type of performance, the Broncos won 76.8 percent of the time by an average score of 32-23.

Edwards’ injury costs Bills

AccuScore had the Bills winning 64.5 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 24-19.  San Francisco pulled the big upset, winning 10-3, in part because of an injury to Trent Edwards.  Edwards was forecasted for 224 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  He passed for 112 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions in the first half, before being replaced by J.P. Losman, who threw for 93 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions in the second half.

In custom AccuScore simulations, the Giants won 58.2 percent of the time by an average score of 18-16 when Edwards and Losman combined for this type of performance.  Edwards has been good at leading the Bills from behind this season, and his presence was missed in the seven point loss.

This could show the value of Edwards to the Bills.  To get a better idea of his value, in custom AccuScore simulations, the Bills were losing the average simulation by a score of 21-20 without Edwards in the lineup.  Buffalo had better hope Edwards returns quickly from his groin injury, or their season could be finished.

Pittsburgh dominates New England

The Patriots were winning 63.5 percent of AccuScore simulations against the Pittsburgh Steelers by an average score of 23-19.  The Steelers ended up dominating the Patriots by a score of 33-10 on Sunday, thanks in large part to a great performance by the defense.

Matt Cassel was coming in to this game off two huge performances that saw him put up a combined 815 passing yards, six touchdowns, and one interception.  Cassel was forecasted to throw for 223 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in 70 percent of simulations, while being sacked five times.  The Steelers defense came through with the five sacks, but intercepted Cassel twice, and held him to 169 yards and no touchdowns.  In custom AccuScore simulations, the Steelers were winning 64.8 percent of the time when holding Cassel to this level of performance.

Maybe just as important was the work the offensive line did in protecting Ben Roethlisberger.  Roethlisberger was forecasted to be sacked four times, but only went down once, which is rare for the Steelers this year.  Custom AccuScore simulations had the Steelers winning 66.4 percent of simulations when the Patriots recorded just one sack.

Chiefs pull the “upset”

It’s hard to call it an upset when a 1-10 team beats a 3-8 team, but Oakland was forecasted to win 58 percent of simulations against the Chiefs, while the Chiefs ended up winning 20-13 on Sunday.

A big credit goes to the Kansas City run defense, which held Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden to 95 yards on 25 carries.  Fargas and McFadden were forecasted to combine for 162 yards on 30 carries in AccuScore simulations.  Kansas City was winning 83.6 percent of custom AccuScore simulations when holding Fargas and McFadden to this type of performance.

Williams runs wild on Green Bay

In one of the best games on Sunday, the Panthers beat the Packers by a score of 35-31, winning thanks to the fourth touchdown by DeAngelo Williams with a minute and a half to go in the game.  AccuScore forecasted the Packers to win 53.9 percent of simulations, winning by an average score of 23-22.

The performance by Williams is a big factor in the Panthers holding the advantage in this game.  Williams was forecasted to run for 80 yards, with a touchdown in half of simulations.  On Sunday he put up 72 yards and four touchdowns.  Carolina won 90 percent of custom simulations when Williams put up this type of performance.  This performance came only one week after the Panthers were defeated by a four touchdown performance by Michael Turner.

A lot of credit goes to Steve Smith for making some great catches and putting the Panthers in position for Williams to score.  Aaron Rodgers gets the credit for keeping Green Bay close, throwing for 298 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, despite being forecasted for 235 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.

Atlanta shuts down Tomlinson

The Falcons continue to surprise, while the Chargers continue to disappoint.  San Diego was forecasted to win 69.8 percent of AccuScore simulations by an average score of 27-21.  The Falcons won on Sunday by a score of 22-16, in large part due to shutting down LaDainian Tomlinson.

Tomlinson was forecasted to run for 95 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.  The Falcons held him to 24 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.  The Falcons were winning 73.9 percent of custom AccuScore simulations when holding Tomlinson to this type of performance.

Matt Ryan also gets credit for another great performance, passing for 207 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, despite being forecasted for 211 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  Atlanta saw their chances of winning increase by 14.6 percentage points when Ryan put up this flawless performance.

TrackBack URI for this entry

Comments (0)

Subscribe to this comment's feed

Name

Title

Comment

Add Comment