NFL Deviants: Week Nine

Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
Read Blog

AccuScore went 10-3 predicting game winners in week nine of the NFL season on Sunday for the ninth winning week in a row. That brings the overall record to 87-42 on the season for straight game winners. Miami, Cincinnati, and the New York Jets were the three teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week nine. To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Miami’s defense comes up strong

AccuScore had the Broncos winning 55.5 percent of simulations against the Miami Dolphins, winning by an average score of 24-22. The surprising Dolphins pulled off another upset, winning 26-17, and pulling even to 4-4 on the season. Denver meanwhile dropped to 4-4, after starting the season 4-1.

The biggest difference between the simulations and the game on Sunday was the work the Dolphins defense did on Jay Cutler. Cutler was projected to throw for 225 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in AccuScore simulations. On Sunday he threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns, but threw three interceptions. In custom AccuScore simulations when Cutler threw three interceptions, the Dolphins won 75.5 percent of the time, by an average score of 27-19.

The Dolphins defense also came up huge against the Denver running game. The Denver running backs were forecasted to run for 106 yards on 24 carries. Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, and Ryan Torain combined for just 12 yards on 11 carries against the Miami defense. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Dolphins were winning 86.2 percent of simulations by an average score of 28-17 when holding the Broncos running backs to this type of performance.

Cincinnati does everything right

In one of the biggest upsets of the week, the 0-8 Bengals finally pulled off a win, beating the Jacksonville Jaguars by a score of 21-19. Cincinnati held a 21-3 lead heading in to the fourth quarter. Jacksonville attempted a comeback, scoring 16 points in the fourth, but missed on a two point conversion with a minute left in the game, falling short of the comeback. AccuScore projected the Jaguars to win in 78.5 percent of simulations. So how did the Bengals pull off such an upset?

The biggest key was the Cincinnati defense actually having a good game. AccuScore projected David Garrard to throw for 212 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Garrard threw for 229 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. Cincinnati improved their chances of winning by ten percentage points in custom AccuScore simulations when Garrard was held without a touchdown.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor were forecasted to run for 117 yards in AccuScore simulations against the Bengals. The Jaguars running backs were held to 45 rushing yards on 15 carries. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Bengals won 66.5 percent of the time when holding Taylor and MJD to this type of performance.

Ryan Fitzpatrick deserves a lot of credit for the performance he put up. AccuScore forecasted 185 yards, one touchdown, and one interception from Fitzpatrick, with two or more interceptions in 30 percent of simulations. Fitzpatrick threw for 162 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. In custom AccuScore simulations where Fitzpatrick put up this type of performance, the Bengals increased their chances of winning by 19 percentage points.

Finally, Cedric Benson was projected to run for 49 yards on 15 carries against the Jaguars in AccuScore simulations. Benson carried the ball 24 times on Sunday, running for 104 yards and a touchdown. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Bengals won 58.3 percent of the time when Benson put up this type of performance.

Jets defense shuts down the Bills

AccuScore simulations had the Bills winning 66.6 percent of simulations against the Jets by an average score of 25-20. The Jets beat the Bills convincingly on Sunday, by a final score of 26-17. The biggest difference between the simulations and the actual game came with the play of the Jets defense.

AccuScore simulations had the Jets defense sacking Trent Edwards two times, and forcing two turnovers. The Jets sacked Edwards five times, and forced two interceptions and one fumble by Edwards. In custom AccuScore simulations, the Jets won 62.7 percent of the time when sacking Edwards five times. In custom AccuScore simulations where the Jets defense intercepted Edwards twice, New York won 57.9 percent of the time.

The Jets defense also held Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson to a combined 31 rushing yards on 16 carries, despite being forecasted to allow 135 yards on 29 carries. The Jets won 81.8 percent of custom AccuScore simulations when holding the Buffalo running game to 31 rushing yards.

Trackback(0)

TrackBack URI for this entry