Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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AccuScore went 11-3-1 predicting game winners in week eleven of the NFL season for the eleventh winning week in a row.  That brings the overall record to 110-49-1 on the season for straight game winners.  Denver, Tennessee, and the New York Jets were the three teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week eleven, while the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cincinnati Bengals played to the first NFL tie since 2002.  To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Jets take over first in the AFC East

AccuScore had the New England Patriots winning 66.6 percent of simulations by an average score of 25-20.  New England was trailing late in the fourth quarter when Randy Moss caught a touchdown pass with one second remaining, sending the game to overtime.  The Jets pulled off the win in overtime, and pulled off the AccuScore upset 34-31.

In my game preview, I listed two ways that the Jets could win: by holding the Patriots to under 100 rushing yards, and by topping 100 rushing yards themselves.  Thomas Jones carried the ball 30 times for 104 yards, while the Jets’ defense held Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis to 61 yards on 15 carries.

The Jets were winning 68 percent of custom AccuScore simulations by an average score of 26-21 when Jones put up the type of performance we saw Thursday night.  When the Jets held the Patriots’ running game back like we saw on Thursday night, they won 68.2 percent of simulations by an average score of 23-18.

Matt Cassel’s performance kept the game closer than it should have been.  Cassel was forecasted to throw for 216 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  He threw for 400 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on Thursday, leading the Patriots to 18 second-half points to force overtime.  With that type of performance from Cassel, the Patriots were winning 80 percent of custom AccuScore simulations.  That is all moot, as the poor running game for New England, and the great performance by Thomas Jones put New England behind, and putting Cassel’s efforts to waste.

Denver makes another comeback

The Denver Broncos pulled off another fourth quarter comeback, scoring on a Jay Cutler touchdown pass to Daniel Graham with five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, to overcome the AccuScore simulations for the second week in a row.  AccuScore had Atlanta winning 63.1 percent of simulations by an average score of 27-23.  The Broncos ended up winning 24-20 on Sunday.

Cutler led Denver on another comeback, but his performance wasn’t overly impressive.  He was forecasted to throw for 263 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, and threw for 216 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions.  The Denver running game was forecasted for 101 rushing yards.  Peyton Hillis, P.J. Pope, and Tatum Bell carried the ball 21 times for 113 yards, with Hillis scoring twice.

The big difference in this game was the play of Matt Ryan.  The Falcons are 6-4 on the season after Sunday’s loss.  When Matt Ryan throws at least one interception, the Falcons are 1-3.  When Ryan doesn’t throw for a touchdown, the Falcons are 0-3.  When Ryan throws for at least one touchdown, the Falcons are 6-1.  When Ryan throws for no interceptions, the Falcons are 5-1.  Simply put, the Falcons have been winning with Matt Ryan providing minimal production, and playing a mistake free game management role.

AccuScore simulations had Ryan throwing for 228 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in just 50 percent of simulations.  In custom simulations where Ryan threw an interception, the Falcons saw their chances of winning drop 11 percentage points.  When Ryan went without a touchdown pass, the Broncos held the edge, winning 50 percent of simulations.  When both events occurred, the Broncos won 61.7 percent of simulations, by an average score of 21-18.

Denver was successful with their second comeback in a row, but the ultimate success lies on the Denver defense, for forcing a Matt Ryan turnover, and holding the Falcons to zero passing touchdowns.

Wrong again on Jacksonville

If there is one team that AccuScore is horrible at forecasting, it is the Jacksonville Jaguars.  AccuScore is 2-8 predicting the outcome of Jaguars games this season.  To put that in perspective, there is only one other team so far that AccuScore has a losing record with, and that is the Buffalo Bills at 4-5 heading in to Monday’s game.  AccuScore has a 70 percent or better prediction rate on 18 of the 32 NFL teams, and a 60 percent or better rate on 28 of the 32 teams.

The main reason for this is that Jacksonville is a very hard team to predict, due to inconsistencies.  Which Maurice Jones-Drew will show up?  Will it be the five yard per carry version that we’ve seen in weeks three, four six, and ten, or will it be the version that averages less than three yards per carry, like in weeks one, two, five, and eight?  Will we see the David Garrard that plays mistake free ball, like in weeks four, five, six, eight, and ten?  Or will we see the one touchdown, five interception version from weeks one, two, three, and nine?

AccuScore had the Jaguars with an edge on Sunday, winning 52.7 percent of simulations.  Maurice Jones-Drew was running for 52 yards on 11 carries.  MJD ran for 66 yards on 17 carries with two touchdowns on Sunday, exceeding those expectations.  Jacksonville was winning 86 percent of custom simulations when MJD put up this type of two-touchdown performance, and 74 percent of simulations based on the yardage alone.  However, this assumes David Garrard plays up to his expectations.

AccuScore forecasted 205 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception from Garrard.  Garrard threw for just 135 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception.  When you factor that performance in to the MJD custom simulations, the Titans win 75 percent of the time, by an average score of 20-12.

Eagles and Bengals play to a tie

My opinion is that the NFL is the cream of the crop when it comes to professional sports leagues.  Major league baseball, the NHL, and the NBA have nothing on the NFL.  So why is it that the NFL is the only league where teams can play to a tie game?  We haven’t seen a tie since 2002, a game I vividly remember, as Michael Vick scrambled for a game tying touchdown in the final minutes of regulation, only to leave the game un-settled through overtime.

If there’s one thing the NFL needs to fix, it is the overtime rules.  They need to adopt the college rules that gives each team the ball on the 25 yard line, and goes until one team wins.  Not only do you avoid tie games, which are totally pointless, but you also make overtime fair, avoiding an outcome which is heavily based on who wins the coin toss and gets the ball first.  I don’t recall the exact figures, but I believe the winner of the coin toss wins about 7000 percent of overtime games.  Save the “you get the opportunity to score if your defense makes a stop” argument.  That’s like giving one person a free house, and telling the other person “you get the opportunity to own a house if you work hard for it, unlike this guy, who was lucky enough to win his house in a coin toss”.

That being said, how did we even get to a tie game situation?  AccuScore had the Eagles winning 74.5 percent of simulations by an average score of 27-17.  A lot of credit has to go to the Bengals defense.  Cincinnati was forcing two turnovers with one sack in AccuScore simulations.  The Bengals sacked Donovan McNabb twice, and forced four turnovers, all by McNabb, which in custom simulations gave them a 63.8 percent chance of winning.

Donovan McNabb was forecasted to throw for 254 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, but threw for 339 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions.  The Bengals were winning 66 percent of simulations, winning the average simulation by just one point.  In the end that makes a lot of sense.  The Bengals controlled most of the game, leading 13-3 in the third quarter before allowing a touchdown, and a field goal in the fourth quarter.  They also found themselves in the best position to win in overtime, but saw Shayne Graham miss a 47 yard field goal.  The Bengals defense put their team in a great position to pull the upset on the Eagles, but in the end Cincinnati couldn’t pull off the win.

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