Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

The aroma is in the air. The turkey is thawing out, the pumpkin pie is in the oven and the NFL playoff picture is starting to thin out.

Week 12 provided a showcase for the great teams to demonstrate they were great, the good teams to illustrate they are postseason worthy, and the mediocre teams to show they just don’t have what it takes this year.

The Big Apple is all a buzz as their football teams showed they could play against the contenders. The New York Jets stomped on the undefeated Tennessee Titans in their house, and moved their playoff projection to 75.8 percent. While on the other side of the country the New York Giants went into Arizona and took down the eventual NFC West champions and solidified their spot in the postseason, moving their playoff projection up to 99.2 percent.

But where there are winners, there are losers.  The Philadelphia Eagles loss to the Baltimore Ravens in embarrassing fashion, dropping their playoff projection to 5.1 percent, while the Minnesota Vikings’ shellacking of the Jacksonville Jaguars sealed their fate as Jack Del Rio’s team only has a .1 percent chance of playing past December.

There are still quite a few teams with playoff dreams, but only some can become reality while others will have to wait another year.

AFC

New England Patriots - The Patriots had a tough Thursday loss in overtime to the New York Jets two weeks ago, but that didn’t keep Matt Cassel and the AFC Champs down. They went down to Miami and dropped 48 on the new darlings of the NFL. Cassel had his second straight 400-yard passing game, a feat that has only been done by the likes of Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Phil Simms and Billy Volek. Cassel found Randy Moss to be a valuable asset and made sure his receiver wasn’t someone to be disrespected. Moss’ 125 yards and three touchdowns put the Patriots in the drivers seat for a playoff spot, as their postseason projection moved up 13.9 percent (to 67.3). A winnable schedule has Seattle, Oakland and Buffalo on the horizon. But first, Bill Belichick and his team must take out AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

Miami Dolphins - Here is a team that only a week ago had over a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs and had a schedule that was tailor made for a playoff run. All they had to do was take care of business at home against New England and the ‘Phins were in control of their fate and their first postseason in seven years. But Joey Porter and the defense didn’t show up on Sunday and now Bill Parcells’ team needs a little help if they want to have one of the best turnarounds in NFL history. With the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots playing well, along with the fact that someone in the AFC West has to play in January, Miami is on the outside looking in despite a potential 11-5 record looming. AccuScore projects Miami with a 25.9 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers - The Steelers did what they had to do and beat the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday. They had to win that game because the Steelers schedule coming up is brutal. Pittsburgh’s next four games are against teams with a combined record of 31-13. They have to go to New England, Baltimore and Tennessee and have Dallas coming to play at Heinz Field in a game the Cowboys will desperately need. Pittsburgh is only a game ahead of division rival Baltimore, and could find themselves behind the Ravens before they play on December 14^th. Right now, Mike Tomlin’s team still has a playoff projection of 74.6 percent, but lost ground this past week despite their victory.

NFC

Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings are sitting pretty after a victory over Jacksonville and a Green Bay loss on Monday Night. Despite Brad Childress criticizing Gus Frerotte’s decision making, the team is 6-3 with him under center and are back in control of their destiny. AccuScore currently has the Purple People Eaters with a 40.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, only .9 percent behind the division rival Chicago Bears. This week they play Lovie Smith’s team in the Metrodome and a win could put them well on their way to the postseason. The Vikings may benefit by the Giants having everything clinched before their Week 17 match up.

Carolina Panthers - The Carolina Panthers, along with Green Bay, were the latest to feel the wrath of playing in the home stadium of an NFC South team. The upstart Atlanta Falcons gave John Fox’s defense a heavy dose of Michael Turner and he burned them for four touchdowns. Even with the excellent play of Steve Smith, the Panthers were unable to overcome a 17-3 Falcons halftime lead and loss their second divisional game (third loss of the season). The good news for Carolina fans, that was the best Jake Delhomme looked in his last three games and the Panthers have a playoff projection of 71.9 percent and a divisional forecast of 41.3 percent. In two weeks they host Tampa Bay, which should provide a bit of clarity in what is rivaling the NFC East as the best division in football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Speaking of the Buccaneers, Jon Gruden and his team has been able to find ways to comeback three games in a row and are looking like serious contenders for that first round bye. The defense is leading this Tampa Bay team that has seen quite a few injuries to their offense. The Bucs defense created three turnovers in route to their comeback against the Lions, including Ronde Barber’s two interceptions (one for a touchdown). This team’s next three games are very important as they are all within the division. Tampa Bay’s playoff projection is at 64.7 percent right now, but if they can’t break the mold and win on the road against Carolina and Atlanta that could quickly change their postseason hopes from a playoff bye to an early off-season.

This Thanksgiving is going to provide plenty of leftovers, full stomachs and some eager health nuts (like me) to get back into the gym to work off those holiday pounds. With important games like New England Patriots versus Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears versus Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants versus Washington Redskins, this holiday weekend could also provide some answers to teams playoff questions.

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