Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

As the seasons change everywhere in the U.S except Southern California, so does the playoff projection picture in the NFL. Key losses in inclement weather really caused teams postseason chances to drop tremendously. San Diego, New England and Chicago are just a couple of teams that were affected by the conditions they were forced to play in.

On the other side of that coin, other teams were able to flourish and improve. Arizona, Tennessee and the New York Giants are locks for a shot at the Super Bowl. Each team has over a 97.6 percent chance of making the postseason, with Jeff Fisher’s Titans holding an amazing 100 percent chance with six weeks to go. That’s what happens when a team is undefeated and knocks off another tough division opponent.

Some divisions look to be locked just a week ago, but the winds of change of Week 11 caused major movement. Those that seemed destined for the postseason are now falling behind the pack. While others that looked to be holding onto their postseason dreams by a thread are now in a more favorable position.

AFC

AFC West – Only two teams really matter in this division, but they just can’t seem to take complete control of it. Despite having a worse record, the Chargers have been favorites in the West since week six. The Broncos weak defense was keeping them percent points below the reigning West champs and the season finale being in San Diego looked to be the determining factor. But after defeated the Falcons and watching the Chargers lose in a weather affected game, Denver now sits with a 20.5 percent lead over it’s division rivals. Jay Cutler is continuing his coming out party, as he is one touchdown pass away from tying his career high and leads the AFC in passing yards. The Broncos have a 63 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 60.9 percent chance of retaking the division crown for the first time since 2005.

Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning is back. In his first seven games of the season, the Tennessee alum had nine interceptions to go with his ten touchdown passes. The team was 3-4 and looking at missing the postseason for the first time in six years. Fast forward three weeks, and Manning has shown that those previous seven games were just pre-season for the former MVP. Against tough teams like Pittsburgh, New England and division rival Houston, Manning has thrown seven touchdowns and more importantly – no interceptions. The team is 6-4 and right back in the playoff picture. This week’s victory jumped the Colts 15.2 percent, giving them a solid 66.4 percent chance of playing in January. In fact, Manning’s team only sits behind New York Jets, Pittsburgh and Tennessee in playoff projection. 

AFC East – Thursday’s win for the New York Jets have many people thinking there was a changing of the guard in the East and the Jets are now the team to beat. But this division is far from decided. Both the Patriots and Dolphins only sit a game back and, although they are struggling, the Bills are only two games back. The Jets have the undefeated Tennessee Titans this week, the Dolphins play New England in a week three rematch and the Bills play Kansas City. By this time next week, two teams could sit atop the east at 7-4 with the other two teams just a game behind. The East is far from settled, but right now they are led by the Jets with a 69.9 percent chance of making the playoffs.

NFC

Dallas Cowboys – Tony Romo is back and the Cowboys couldn’t be happier. On Sunday, he may not have played like the big money quarterback Dallas fans want him to be, but he did extract some revenge by beating the division rivals in their house in a game the Cowboys needed to stay alive. The Cowboys are now tied for second in the division and their next two games are against the weak NFC West (San Francisco and Seattle). The Cowboys currently have a 58.1 percent chance of making the postseason and could easily continue to rise.

Washington Redskins – Wherever there are winners, there are losers and the Redskins are currently that team on a downward spiral. Only two weeks ago Jim Zorn’s team was 6-2 and considered by many to be the second best team in the NFC. Well, two tough primetime losses against the Steelers and Cowboys in which the team failed to score more than ten points has really dropped the Redskins playoff hopes. In fact, since week eight Washington has dropped 27.9 percent and now is on the outside looking in. Much like the Cowboys, luckily for the ‘Skins the NFC West is arriving next week (Seattle) and could get this team above it’s current playoff projection percentage of 30.4 percent.

Chicago Bears – Kyle Orton’s return wasn’t like Romo’s, it was unpleasant. The Bears went into Green Bay and laid an egg, only able to put up three points and 85 rushing yards against a team that a week ago allowed Adrian Peterson to run for 192 yards. The Bears offense looked stale and the lack of a true receiver threat really showed that if they get behind in a game, Lovie Smith’s team is in trouble. The loss dropped the Bears into a three-way tie for the division at 5-5, but also plummeted their playoff projection percentage to 30.7. Seven teams are forecasted to finish ahead of the Monsters of the Midway, but visiting a reeling St. Louis team next week may be just what Chicago needs to get back atop the NFC North.

The weather is getting colder in most of the U.S. The snow is starting to fall, and so are the hopes of many NFL teams' chances of playing in January. A few divisions are bcoming more clear with every passing week, but some continue to stay foggy with no obvious winner emerging. That's the beauty of parody in the NFL and why every week is so important in playoff projection.

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SUNDANCE KID said:

i predict superbowl 43 will be the titans vs. cardinals, with kerry collins finally getting his superbowl ring over NFL MVP Kurt Warner in tampa in February 2009. afc championship game: jets vs. titans nfc championship game: cardinals vs. giants. NBC SPORTS RATING NIGHTMARE: JOHN MADDEN'S DREAM GAME- TITANS VS. CARDINALS

November 20, 2008

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