Monday Night Preview: Jaguars vs. Texans

Aaron Feldstein - AccuScore Analyst

Tonight’s match up features teams that at the beginning of the season had high aspirations. The Jacksonville Jaguars were a team that many had as favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, while the Houston Texans were seeking their first winning season in franchise history.

As Monday Night football is hours away, it looks like neither of these dreams will come true.

Houston hosts it’s first Monday night game in franchise history. Gary Kubiak’s team has the fourth best offense in the NFL, as they average around 371.3 yards per game despite their No. 1 quarterback Matt Schaub being on the shelf. Sage Rosenfels has taken the reigns, and despite a touchdown to interception ratio of 5:9, the 109^th pick in the 2001 draft has thrown an average of 246 yards in his five starts. Unfortunately for Rosenfels, his record is 1-4 to Schaub’s 4-3.

One man helping Rosenfels have some success is Andre Johnson. The sixth year receiver is quietly becoming the best in the game. In 11 games, the University of Miami graduate leads the league in receiving yards with 1,071. The only trouble Johnson has is finding the end zone, as he only has three touchdowns this season. That may be because his counterpart on the other side of the field is stealing the glory. Kevin Walter is another reason this team is the fourth best passing squad in the NFL. Walter is averaging over 12 yards per catch and has seven touchdowns.

AccuScore projects both Johnson and Walter to have a good showing on Monday, combining 142 yards, at least one touchdown and both with over 11 yards per catch. Rosenfels has an 88.9 percent chance of throwing for one or more touchdowns, and rookie running back Steve Slaton is forecasts to run for over 90 yards and has a 53.7 percent chance of getting in the end zone himself.

As for the Jaguars, this has been a season many on the Jacksonville sidelines would like to forget. Troubles with star players have plagued production on the field. David Garrard has already thrown twice as many interceptions this year as he did last season, Fred Taylor has yet to cross the goal line, and the defense is giving up 21.8 points per game.

One positive for the Jaguars is running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The 5’8” tailback has 896 total yards (rushing and receiving) and 11 touchdowns. The UCLA alum is second on the team in receiving as only troubled receiver Matt Jones is ahead of him in yards. However, he is still sharing carries with Taylor. That’s why Jones-Drew is projected to only rush for 58 yards on Monday night. He has a 42.8 percent chance of scoring a touchdown, but only a 24.8 chance of rushing for more than 80 yards. This season, Jones-Drew has only rushed for more than 80 yards twice, the last coming against Denver in Week 6.

Monday’s battle will come down to the high-powered offense of Houston against the time controlling one of Jacksonville. The Jaguars will look to pound the ball while the Texans will try and get the ball to their dynamic receivers. The point spread has Houston giving three points, and the Texans won’t be able to cover it. Although AccuScore simulates Houston winning 54 percent of the time, they are only winning by an average score of 26.1 to 24.9. That will cover the over, but not the spread.

Houston dreams of a winning season could still be alive, while Jacksonville starts looking at rebuilding. Amazing what a difference a year makes.

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