| Back Up Game Plan: Week Ten |
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Every week AccuScore simulates each NFL game 10,000 times to discover the probability of each team winning their contest. Each week I look at those simulations and find certain strategies or depth chart issues that I feel need to be altered in order to give the team in question a better chance to win. The new scenarios are run through the AccuScore super computer 10,000 times, with the new simulation results illustrating the benefit of my new game plan. Here are two situations to look at for week ten. Quinn to start in Cleveland In a very questionable move, the Cleveland Browns announced that they would make the switch to Brady Quinn, their quarterback of the future, over Derek Anderson. The move makes sense in regards to looking towards the future, but the timing is very questionable. The Browns started the season 1-3. Derek Anderson saw his struggles during that stretch, throwing for three touchdowns, six interceptions, and averaging 136 passing yards per game. The Browns decided to stick with Anderson through this rough stretch, rather than making the switch to Quinn. Over the next four games the Browns went 2-2, bringing their record to 3-5. Anderson threw for six touchdowns and one interception over this stretch, averaging 228 passing yards per game. Following their loss last weekend, the Browns decided to make the switch to Quinn. AccuScore simulations support the switch to Quinn. The Browns are winning 50.2 percent of simulations against the Broncos on Thursday with Quinn as the starter. In simulations with Anderson as the quarterback, the Browns are only winning 46.4 percent of simulations. The Browns are 3-5 right now, but they’re hardly out of the playoff race, sitting just two games back from the wild card spot. A move to Quinn earlier might have given the Browns an extra win, putting them just a game behind the wild card teams. At the very least, making the switch earlier would have prepared Quinn for the remainder of the season, giving the Browns a better chance of coming back to win a wild card spot in the second half of the season. Crowded running back situation in Baltimore Willis McGahee will return to the Baltimore Ravens this week, only to find a running back situation that is more crowded than when he left. Ray Rice ran for 154 yards on 21 carries last week, which could potentially put McGahee’s starting job in jeopardy. So far this season McGahee has averaged 3.51 yards per carry, only topping 100 yards once, and never topping 64 yards outside of that game. McGahee has only topped three yards per carry in half of his games this year. The Ravens are winning 51.6 percent of simulations with Ray Rice getting the majority of the carries this weekend against the Texans. Rice is carrying the ball 13 times for 62 yards. McGahee is getting eight carries for 29 yards, while Leron McClain is carrying seven times for 29 yards. In custom AccuScore simulations with McGahee as the starter, the Ravens are seeing a two percent increase in their chances of winning against the Texans. McGahee is running for 55 yards on 14 carries, which is worse than the numbers Rice is putting up. However, the Ravens running game is combining for 106 yards on 28 carries, down just four yards from the baseline simulations. McGahee helps the Ravens more in the passing game, adding an additional two passes for 15 yards. In simulations with McGahee as the primary running back, Joe Flacco is throwing 20 percent fewer interceptions, thanks to McGahee’s improvements in the passing game. Ray Rice had a good game last week, and the Ravens should definitely give him playing time. However, AccuScore simulations show that McGahee playing as the primary running back gives the Ravens a slight upgrade over the Texans this weekend, thanks to McGahee helping in the passing game. Trackback(0)
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