AccuScore simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and this season the team that won over 50 percent of simulations has gone on to win 71 percent of the time (182-74) and for the second straight season AccuScore is ranked #1 amongst ESPN experts in picking games. We have gone on to simulate the NFL playoffs 10,000 times and the tables below show the percent chance each team has of winning each round (teams with first round bye have 100 percent chance of winning round 1), including the Super Bowl.

For analysis of point spreads, totals and prop bets consider becoming a Winner's Edge subscriber (details here). AccuScore went a perfect 8-0 in the opening round of the playoffs.

AFC

The Colts may have home field advantage but the Chargers have the best chance of coming out of the AFC at 17 percent because the Chargers have a nearly 70 percent chance of beating the Jets next week while the Colts have ‘just’ a 57 percent chance of beating Baltimore. Both the Ravens and Jets were extremely impressive in their opening round upset victories and while they are simulation underdogs this week they are both expected to keep their games competitive and not lose by more than a touchdown, if not win the game out-right.

The keys to victory in both games are very similar. The Chargers need to be able to pass the ball despite Darrelle Revis potentially taking out #1 WR Vincent Jackson and the Chargers run defense, which has been below average most of the season, needs to keep the Jets RBs from having 150+ rushing yards.

The Colts passing game needs to be effective despite the long lay-off and they need to limit turnovers, something Tom Brady struggled with vs this Ravens defense. The Colts sub-par run defense also needs to make sure that Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and LeRon McClain to not bust out for another 200+ rushing yard performance.

NFC

The Saints have the best chance of winning the NFC Championship because they have a 71 percent chance of beating Arizona this week. Arizona was spectacular offensively vs the Packers, but their defense was not, to say the least. The game is in New Orleans and it is unlikely that the Cardinals defense can hold the Saints to under 33 points. The Saints defense ranked 3^rd in the league in interceptions and this is a key advantage for this game. If Kurt Warner does not throw any interceptions and overall the Cardinals are +2 in turnovers then they can upset New Orleans.

The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football in the league. With Felix Jones playing so well the Vikings actually do not have the advantage in the running game despite having Adrian Peterson. The running game is even and both defenses are dynamic. The key to this game comes down to Brett Favre vs Tony Romo. The one who can deliver down-field with big plays in the face of extreme pressure (DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer for Favre; Jared Allen for Romo) without turning the ball over will likely lead the team to victory.

SUPER BOWL "FAVORITE"

While the Saints have the highest percentage of winning the Super Bowl these numbers are highly speculative. The performance stats that come out of this weekend’s games will significantly dictate how well each team is expected to play in the Championship Games and subsequently the Super Bowl. For example, if Dallas were to play extremely well and soundly beat Minnesota while the Saints were to barely beat Arizona then the Saints chances of winning the NFC and subsequently the Super Bowl woul be significantly different from the projection above because of how well Dallas played at New Orleans and how they have played during the playoffs. Alternatively, if the Vikings were to easily handle Dallas then they may be the clear-cut favorite vs all other teams as the stats would indicate that the team was set to dominate as they did for the first 3 months of the regular season.

Given the number of upsets that occurred in the first weekend of the playoffs (Dallas was the only betting favorite to win) this may be one of those years where you never know what you will end up seeing.