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AFC

There were major playoff probability shifts in the AFC this week, none more significant than the Bengals leap in the rankings and Baltimore’s large decline. If Baltimore had beaten the Bengals at home their probability would not have increased much, but by losing a game at home to a division rival their chances dropped from first to third in the division. The Bengals benefited massively improving their playoff chances to nearly 69 percent. The Bengals have won 3 games they were heavy underdogs in and the rest of their schedule has a number of teams they are ‘supposed’ to beat. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals stand up to the pressure of being favored. Pittsburgh saw their chances increase because 1) they beat Detroit and Baltimore lost but 2) their running game has gone from one of the worst to potentially one of the best with the emergence of Rashard Mendenhall.

The Broncos impressively racked up another win and their playoff probability is up to 76 percent. The pressure is squarely on the Chargers to win on Monday Night. If the Broncos win and their defense once again holds a potent offense to under 21 points they will not only have a substantial lead in the division, but they will also have the statistical proof that their defense is indeed #1 in the league right now.

The Colts already have a strangle hold on the AFC South. Every other team lost this week and the Colts amazingly have a 99.6 percent chance of winning the AFC South. In the pre-season this was the most competitive division in the AFC West. Right now the only real chance the Colts have of slipping is a Peyton Manning injury. Their high chances are not just due to being undefeated, it has just as much to do with the fact that their passing offense is so good and the Achilles heel of many upcoming opponents is pass defense.

The Miami Dolphins were actually impressive for an 0-3 team and after 2 big division wins where they scored over 30 points they are now moving rapidly up the AFC East rankings. By beating the Jets they actually have a slightly higher probability of winning the division despite being 1 game behind New York. The Patriots are still leading the AFC East in winning the division despite losing to Denver and seeing their playoff probability plummet over 20 percent.

NFC

The Falcons offense exploded and their defense was impressive in their win over San Francisco. While New Orleans is still in control of the NFC South, Atlanta is now a solid 4^th in the NFC in overall playoff probability. Last year’s NFC South champ, Carolina, beat Washington by 3 points but actually saw their already slim playoff probability decline slightly as there is little statistical proof that this team can return to being an elite team, despite their win.

The disappointing 49ers saw the biggest drop in playoff probability --- a whopping 45.5 percentage points. The combination of a home loss, Arizona’s win, and Seattle’s impressive win all took their toll on San Francisco. San Francisco would not have dropped as significantly if this were a close game, but when you allow 45 points and struggle against both the pass and run it has a negative impact on their forecasted performance the rest of the season. Seemingly overnight, the NFC West is once again a highly competitive 3 team race.

There were not many major shifts in the NFC East as all 3 contenders (the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles) won games they were expected to win an all 3 teams saw their playoff probabilities improve slightly. Washington has had a very easy schedule with just 1 quality opponent but still only have a 2-3 record. Washington is favored next week vs Kansas City, but after that are only favored in 1 game the rest of the season.

The NFC North was relatively quiet this season with Chicago and Green Bay both on Bye weeks and Detroit losing to Pittsburgh, as expected.