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NFL Playoff Shifts After 16 Weeks
Tuesday, 29 December 2009 19:59

AFC

The Ravens and Jets control their own destiny so their playoff chances are directly tied to their chances of winning in Week 17. The Ravens may have lost to Pittsburgh but their playoff chances improved 20 percentage points because Miami and Jacksonville lost. Baltimore is a double digit favorite winning over 78 percent of simulations vs Oakland which is why they have the highest probability of making the playoffs of any Wild Card contender.

The Bengals and Patriots are both 10-5 and technically they could compete for the #3 AFC Seed and get home field advantage should they meet each other, but it seems as though resting starters and preventing injury is more appealing that fighting for home field advantage in this scenario. At least that is the feeling in Vegas who make the Jets a 10 point favorite over the Bengals and Houston a 9 point favorite over the Patriots. AccuScore gives the Jets a high 72.5 percent chance of beating Cincinnati and making the playoffs.

In terms of Week 17 winning percentages for AFC Teams not in control of their own destiny the Broncos have the best chance of winning at 76 percent over Kansas City, Houston second at 67 percent, followed by Pittsburgh at 53 percent. Denver has the tie-breaker over Houston and has a much higher chance of winning than Pittsburgh which gives them the best chance at 21 percent, of these teams on the outside looking in. Houston has the tie-breaker over Pittsburgh and a higher Week 17 winning percentage which gives them the significant 17 percent to 9 percent lead over the Steelers.

AFC WEEK 16 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 16 WK 17 % DIFF WIN DIV
CINCINNATI BENGALS 96.6% 100.0% 3.4% 100.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 97.1% 100.0% 2.9% 100.0%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 58.6% 78.9% 20.3% 0.0%
NEW YORK JETS 11.6% 72.5% 60.9% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 37.2% 21.1% -16.1% 0.0%
HOUSTON TEXANS 12.8% 17.3% 4.5% 0.0%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 33.0% 9.4% -23.6% 0.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 20.2% 0.7% -19.5% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 14.8% 0.1% -14.7% 0.0%

NFC

Minnesota has a 70 percent chance of beating the Giants in Week 17 and have an excellent chance of holding on to the #2 Seed (nearly 80 percent). For the Eagles to catch the Vikings they need to beat Cowboys (35 percent chance) and have the Vikings lose, which gives them a 10.5 percent chance of getting the #2 spot in the NFC. The Cardinals need both the Vikings and Eagles to lose, in addition to winning and they also have a 10.5 percent chance of getting the #2 Seed.

The Cowboys have impressively won their last 2 games and did beat Philadelphia earlier this season. They are playing with confidence and actually have a 65 percent chance of beating Philadelphia in Week 17 and snatching the NFC East division win.

TEAM WK 16 WK 17 % DIFF WIN DIV
ARIZONA CARDINALS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 100.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 80.8% 100.0% 19.2% 61.8%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 38.3%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 92.7% 100.0% 7.4% 0.0%