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AFC

The Broncos lost a game they were heavily favored in and saw their chances cut in half dropping from 76 to just 37 percent. The Baltimore Ravens were the big winners in Week 15. Not only did they beat Chicago, but the Jets, Dolphins, and Broncos (a team they beat) all lost. The Ravens chances improved 24 percentage points to nearly 59 percent. Even though they control their own destiny, the Ravens are definitely not an overwhelming favorite to make the playoffs as they are just 1 game ahead of a number of teams.

There are two Week 16 games that could go a long way in settling the AFC Playoff picture. If the slight underdog Ravens beat Pittsburgh they will likely be a lock for a playoff spot and if Miami beats Houston they will eliminate the Texans from the playoff picture. If the Ravens lose to Pittsburgh then the AFC Playoff picture is an absolute mess.

Rather than spend thousands of words running through different tie-breaker scenarios, the playoff picture is simpler if we focus on who has the best chance of winning the rest of their games.

The Ravens have the best chance of winning both their remaining games and when you combine that with the fact that they are 8-6 and still have a 5% chance of winning the AFC North, they have the best chance of Wild Card contenders of making the playoffs. The Broncos are second in playoff probability at 37 percent despite only having a 24 percent chance of winning their remaining games because they are also 8-6. The rest of the teams’ playoff chances are correlated to their descending chances of winning both their remaining games. This analysis does assume the Colts still play their starters most of the way vs the Jets.

NFC

The Cowboys major upset of the Saints improved their playoff chances by nearly 23 percentage points and they now have an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs even though have two tough games the rest of the season. The fact is, the Cowboys are an extremely talented team that can beat anyone when their pass rush is effective and they run the ball well.

The Packers are still in very good shape as they are heavy 87 percent favorites in Week 16 vs Seattle and have a strong 45 percent chance of beating Arizona in Week 17. The Giants only have a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs but this analysis DOES NOT factor for the Vikings potentially resting their starters in Week 17. The Cowboys and Packers need to hope that the Eagles win in Week 16 which would force the Vikings to play their starters in Week 17 to maintain their #2 Playoff Seed.

The NFC Playoff picture is obviously far simpler than the AFC Playoff picture, although both conferences have two teams who control their own destiny. The fact is if the Packers and Cowboys miss the playoffs this season it will qualify as a major collapse. If the Ravens and/or Broncos fail to make the playoffs the collapse will not be as significant as the Packers or Cowboys, but it will still qualify as a collapse in our book.