AccuScore
| NFL Deviants Week Ten |
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AccuScore went 10-3 predicting game winners in week ten of the NFL season for the tenth winning week in a row. That brings the overall record to 98-45 on the season for straight game winners. Denver, Minnesota, and Indianapolis were the three teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in week ten. To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants. Cutler’s big game gives Broncos victory AccuScore had the Browns winning 52 percent of simulations against the Denver Broncos on Thursday night, with Cleveland winning the average simulation by half a point. The Broncos exploded for 564 yards of total offense, beating the Browns by a score of 34-30, thanks to a Brandon Marshall touchdown with 1:14 left in the game. AccuScore had Brady Quinn forecasted for 209 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Quinn threw for 239 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. However, Jay Cutler exceeded his expectations in an even bigger fashion. Cutler was forecasted to throw for 216 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in simulations. Cutler ended up throwing for 447 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. There was just a 0.1 percent chance of this type of performance coming from Cutler, and when it happened, the Broncos won 77.8 percent of simulations by an average score of 40-31. Ryan Torain went down early, but still lived up to his expectations. He was forecasted to run for 57 yards with a touchdown in 40 percent of simulations, and ran for 68 yards and a touchdown. Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow were combining for 116 yards and a touchdown in simulations. Edwards only had 15 receiving yards, but Winslow picked up the slack, catching ten passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns. AccuScore had this game close in simulations. Each quarterback exceeded their expectations, however it was Cutler who saw the biggest difference, and that was enough to give the Broncos the victory on Thursday night. Peterson comes up big, Rodgers contained AccuScore had the Packers winning 54.7 percent of simulations against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Green Bay took the lead in the third quarter, and held that lead until Adrian Peterson ran for a 29 yard touchdown with just 2:22 remaining on the clock. Peterson not only provided the difference in the score, but was a major difference in the game. AccuScore simulations had Peterson running for 132 yards and a touchdown. It’s hard to imagine anyone topping that type of performance, but Peterson did just that, running for 192 yards and a touchdown on 30 carries. In custom AccuScore simulations when Peterson added on the extra 60 yards, Minnesota won 80.6 percent of the time by an average score of 30-20. Aaron Rodgers also disappointed, throwing for 142 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions, despite being forecasted for 258 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The Vikings were winning 56.1 percent of simulations when Rodgers was held to this type of performance, ironically by a one point average margin of victory. The Vikings dominated most of the game, only losing the lead with three minutes to go in the third quarter. Peterson’s touchdown won it, but it was the 192 yards by Peterson, and the Vikings defense containing Rodgers, that put Minnesota in position for the win. Roethlisberger struggles again, Manning bounces back You could point to the deflected pass that Reggie Wayne caught for a 65 yard touchdown as the difference in this game, but that would be incorrect. Despite that play, the Steelers managed to take a 17-14 lead in to the half, and had a 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter with eight minutes to go. Indianapolis ended up winning thanks to a Dominic Rhodes touchdown pass from Peyton Manning with three minutes to go in the game. AccuScore had the Steelers winning 63.8 percent of simulations by an average score of 22-18. The big difference between the simulations and the game was the play of Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger was throwing for 202 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in simulations. He threw for 284 yards on Sunday, but threw no touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Colts won 76.8 percent of custom simulations when Roethlisberger put up that type of performance. Peyton Manning also played a key role, finally coming up with a big game. Manning was forecasted to throw for 220 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He threw for 240 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Colts won 68.1 percent of custom AccuScore simulations when Manning put up those numbers that we’re used to seeing him put up. The combined struggle of Roethlisberger, and success of Manning, helped give the Colts the upset over the Steelers on Sunday. |
