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Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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AccuScore went 2-2 predicting game winners in the Divisional round of the NFL post-season.  That brings the overall record to 176-88-1 on the season for straight game winners.  Arizona and Philadelphia were the two teams that went against AccuScore’s forecasts in the Divisional round.  To find out how these teams overcame the odds that were stacked against them in AccuScore simulations, let’s take a look at this week’s statistical deviants.

Carolina drops the ball

The Carolina Panthers had an easy route in to the NFC Championship game, winning 80.2 percent of AccuScore simulations over the Arizona Cardinals, and that was a team that included a limited Anquan Boldin.  The Panthers just had to give the ball to DeAngelo Williams, allow Williams to open up coverage for Steve Smith, and shut down Larry Fitzgerald with double coverage.  Unfortunately, Carolina forgot the most important aspect of winning the game: they had to show up.

The Carolina Panthers did the exact opposite of what was needed to get the easy victory over the Arizona Cardinals.  They abandoned the running game early, giving DeAngelo Williams just six carries in the first half, with five of those carries coming on the first two drives.  In those carries, Williams managed a one yard run, two no-gains, a two yard loss, an eight yard run, and a 31 yard run that set up a touchdown.  That’s basically what you’re going to get from DeAngelo Williams: keep feeding him the ball and he’ll make a big play.  That can’t happen with 12 total carries in the game.

Carolina then decided to put the game in Jake Delhomme’s hands, and Delhomme decided to force the ball to a double covered Steve Smith, leading to five interceptions.  At half time I was wondering what would happen first: would Carolina go with a new quarterback, or would the TV cameras just stop showing Delhomme mouthing F-bombs after his interceptions?  Three Delhomme interceptions in the second half, followed by the cameras showing the Arizona defenders, answered my question.

Finally, Arizona had lost one of their best offensive players, leaving one less star receiver to cover.  Despite this, the Carolina defense allowed Fitzgerald to catch eight passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, rather than playing Fitzgerald like the Arizona defense was playing Steve Smith, and forcing Warner to either go elsewhere for short gains, or try to get the ball to Fitzgerald while risking a turnover.

The ultimate problem in this game was that Carolina abandoned the running game and put the ball in Jake Delhomme’s hands.  Custom AccuScore simulations show that Arizona improved their chances of winning to 49.8 percent of simulations when DeAngelo Williams was limited to 63 yards and no touchdowns, as opposed to the 114 yards and a touchdown that Williams was forecasted for.  Custom simulations also show Arizona winning 83.6 percent of AccuScore simulations when Jake Delhomme threw for five interceptions.

Eagles win the turnover battle

To say that turnovers made the difference in this game would be basically describing the story of the majority of NFL games that are played.  However, that just happens to be the truth, so here goes: the difference in this game came down to turnovers.  AccuScore projected the Giants to win in 54.1 percent of simulations, beating the Eagles by a score of 21-19.  Eli Manning was projected to throw for 201 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.  Manning ended up throwing for 169 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.

Donovan McNabb also threw for two interceptions, but the difference came down to the result of the plays.  Manning’s first interception came on his own 13 yard line, setting up an Eagles touchdown.  His second interception came with the Giants down by two scores and only three and a half minutes remaining.  The Giants also had their third turnover on the next drive, a fumble with just over two minutes remaining, which resulted in the end of the game.

On the other side of the field, McNabb’s two interceptions came down to three Giants points, as one interception came in Giants territory, and another ball was intercepted on the 50 yard line.  In custom AccuScore simulations, the Eagles won 56.1 percent of simulations when winning the turnover battle three to two.  Philadelphia won 72.2 percent of simulations by an average score of 22-14 when McNabb threw for one touchdown and two interceptions, compared to no touchdowns and two interceptions from Manning.