Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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Lost in the subtext of the annual hysteria over possible BCS scenarios is the rise of the mid-major football program.Four schools from outside the power six conferences rank in the top 17 of the latest BCS standings released on Sunday.In all likelihood two of these schools will be able to crash the party this season, something that has never happened since the current system was implemented in 1998.Only Utah in 2004 and Boise State in 2006 were able to receive BCS bids despite not playing in a conference with an automatic bid.Here is the full text explaining how a mid-major team can reach a BCS bowl game:

3. The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:
A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

Currently Utah is ranked 8^th, Boise State 10^th, TCU 12^th, and Ball State 17^th.The highest ranked ACC team is North Carolina at No. 19 while West Virginia leads the way for the Big East at No. 25.The overall weakness of both the ACC and Big East makes it likely that the “B” scenario above will be invoked allowing for two mid-major schools to receive an invitation to a BCS bowl game.Boise State is in the best position here already being ranked in the top 12.The Broncos’ final four opponents have a combined record of 13-22.They are likely to finish unbeaten and receive one bid.Ball State, due to its weak schedule, will find it difficult to move much higher in the human and computer rankings and would have to leapfrog two other mid-major schools.

This leaves Utah and TCU to battle for the final spot and, luckily for college football fans, the two will settle which team is better on the field Thursday night.The stakes will be extremely high as this boils down to an elimination game.Whichever team wins would only need to hold serve the rest of the way to received a coveted bid.The loser is out of the race.AccuScore currently projects TCU to win over 65 percent of the time on Thursday even on the road.The Horned Frogs are favored by more than five points, and have better than a 40 percent chance of winning by double digits.

Running back Joseph Turner
has scored 10 touchdowns
this season.

Both teams are running the ball very well in simulations totaling better than 140 years each.Running back Joseph Turner should lead the way for TCU with 45 yards, but quarterback Andy Dalton will also chip with a forecasted 40 yards.Utah will use the tandem of Matt Asiata and Darrell Mack to power the running game.The duo is forecasted to combine for almost 110 yards.The two teams are combining to throw for less than 270 yards combined so much of the offense will come on the ground.The biggest difference is that Dalton is projected to be much more efficient than Utah quarterback Brian Johnson in the pass game.Dalton is forecasted for just 120 yards passing, but a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.Johnson is projected to complete less than 50 percent of his throws while throwing more interceptions than scores.

The Horned Frogs also have the big edge on defense.In reality both schools are terrific on this side of the ball ranking in the top seven nationally in total defense (TCU is 2^nd, Utah 7^th).Looking more closely however, Utah is allowing more than 50 more total yards and seven more points per game. TCU is third nationally in turnover margin while Utah ranks just 57^th.Because of these key differences, TCU is dominating in simulations.The Horned Frogs are notching four sacks and three turnovers on average compared to just one sack and two turnovers for Utah.

Utah is calling for a blackout on Thursday in hopes of inspiring its football team to a victory, an odd choice considering TCU’s uniforms are prominently purple and black.The winner will have the inside track to a BCS bowl, and control of the Mountain West race.If Utah were to win it would have San Diego State the following week before the Holy War with BYU.Both games would be at home.TCU only has Air Force at home remaining after Thursday.Both BYU and Air Force have just one conference loss so the loser on Thursday could theoretically fall from a BCS bowl bid all the way to the Armed Forces Bowl or the Poinsettia Bowl.Put in that context, the stakes go up even higher.

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DaddyNeuby said:

I was on the field watching last week's TCU game and let me tell you, they are far and away the most athletic and physical team in the conference.... I expect a close game due to it being in Utah and on Thursday night, but the depth of TCU will win out.....

November 06, 2008

Maggie said:

I'm not a Mountain West supporter, but it is a travesty that this game is not televised. As much as I love college football, I'm not paying to watch it. Sad, sad, sad.

November 06, 2008

Jordan said:

Just wait until the Utes demolish the Horned Frogs tonight. No one ever gives Utah teams a chance. They are always underrated. I can't wait for another Bowl Bashing like the one four years ago against Pitt. Hopefully the BCS will be eliminated then and then teams can just worry about playing football.

November 06, 2008

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