Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: OREGON STATE 59% PITTSBURGH 41% SCORE 28-25

Both teams took some time to gel and get rolling, but when they did they were two of the better football teams in the country. Each fell just short of the BCS, and will instead face off in one of the more intriguing match-ups of the bowl season.

The Rodgers brothers, Jacquizz and James, are both likely to sit out due to injuries. James broke suffered a broken collarbone while Jacquizz, the Pac-10 Freshman and Offensive Player of the Year, is not yet fully recovered from a sprained shoulder. Jacquizz Rodgers, despite his diminutive size, was a powerful runner and was the key to the Beavers offense. Without him Oregon State is still projected to win 59 percent of the time by an average score of 28-25.

Beaver quarterback Lyle Moevao will have to take on more of a leadership role without the two Rodgers brothers in the game. He is forecasted for over 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, but also nearly 2 interceptions as well. Redshirt freshman Ryan McCants will have to be a workhorse as third-down back Jeremy Francis is also out for the bowl game. McCants is projected for just over 60 yards on more than 20 rushes, an average of just 2.8 yards per carry. He is scoring a touchdown in half of simulations.

Pittsburgh has relied all year on running back LaSean McCoy to power the offense. With Rodgers out for Oregon State, Pittsburgh is getting more time of possession and that is forecasted to give McCoy more opportunities to touch the ball. The talented Pittsburgh back is projected for nearly 100 yards rushing and 4.3 yards per carry and a touchdown. Quarterback Bill Stull is projected for 230 yards and a touchdown passing, but also an interception.

THE RODGERS EFFECT

The loss of Jacquizz Rodgers affects both teams’ outlook on this game significantly. He was a true workhorse back and kept the chains moving for the Beavers all season. Without him in the game Oregon State will be forced to throw the ball more and reduce the time the time of possession for the Beavers. With Rodgers (and also Francis) in the lineup Oregon State won 67 percent of simulations (baseline) by an average margin of seven points. Without Rodgers, the Beavers’ chances of winning drop to 59 percent with an average margin of just 3 points.

If Rodgers had played, he was forecasted to rush for 80 yards. Moevao would throw for 20 fewer yards, but the added ground production would keep the ball away from the Panthers. In turn with Rodgers in the game, McCoy was forecasted to rush for just 80 yards and Stull would throw for 10 fewer yards accounting for the difference in winning percentages.