Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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BASELINE: USC 73% PENN STATE 27% SCORE 30-20

The Granddaddy of them all features two one-loss teams that both believe they deserved a shot at the BCS championship. Instead they will square off in Pasadena in a classic match-up between two of college football’s marquee schools. USC will be playing in this game for the sixth time in seven seasons, and has beaten its last Big 10 opponents by 25 points on average. The Big 10 has been maligned for its recent bowl history so Penn State will look to restore some luster to the conference with a big win.

USC is projected to win nearly 75 percent of the time by 10 points on average. Mark Sanchez is projected to throw for 200 yards and a QB rating of over 130. The triple-headed attack of C.J. Gable, Joe McKnight, and Stafon Johnson are projected to combine for over 130 yards and a healthy 4.4 yards per carry average.

The Nittany Lions will need a varied offensive gameplan to move the ball and score against the vaunted Trojan defense. Quarterback Daryll Clark is projected for just 105 yards passing and a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Clark is actually averaging less than one of each per game with a QB rating of 84. Running backs Evan Royster and Stephon Green are forecasted for fewer than 70 yards rushing combined.

Surprisingly the vaunted Trojan defense is projected for just 1.5 sacks and 2.3 forced turnovers. USC is actually losing the turnover battle. The key is that Penn State can’t gain any yards. The Lions are gaining fewer than 220 yards of offense per simulation.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE?

The Rose Bowl is a home game for USC. AccuScore re-ran this game in two alternative simulations. One on a true neutral field and one as a home game for Penn State to quantify how much of an advantage USC has by playing ‘at home’.