Zach Rosenfield - AccuScore Analyst

OKLAHOMA VS FLORIDA IN THE BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

BASELINE:FLORIDA 57%OKLAHOMA 43%SCORE 39-36

Oklahoma and Florida will meet in Miami to decide the 2008 BCS National Championship with Florida winning 57 percent of the simulations.This game had been a virtual coin flip until news of DeMarco Murray needing surgery to repair a ruptured tendon in his hamstring.

Although Oklahoma’s two other running backs, Chris Brown and Mossis Madu, have combined for over 1,500 yards, AccuScore projects Murray’s loss as a significant set back for the Sooners. When we simulated the game with Murray, the game was a toss up with Florida winning 50.2 percent of simulations. Without Murray the Gators have seen their win probability rise to 56.8 percent.

Murray is not the only playmaker whose injury status causes significant swings in our forecast. Percy Harvin is the leading rusher and receiver for Florida in simulations (which assume he will be healthy and at full strength).Harvin did miss the SEC Championship Game with an ankle sprain and if he has any kind of setback in his recovery and cannot play, the scale tips in Oklahoma’s favor. Without Harvin’s superior big play ability Oklahoma actually pulls ahead by 1 point in over 54 percent of the simulations.

CAN OKLAHOMA AVOID TURNOVERS

For Florida to be successful, they need to limit Oklahoma possessions by creating turnovers. In our baseline simulations, Florida is averaging only one turnover, which is not enough with a high octane offense like the Sooners have.

We re-simulated the game where Oklahoma turned the ball over two or more times and saw that it has a dramatic impact. In this scenario, we saw Florida’s win probability increase a staggering 12 percent (68.8 percent).

CAN FLORIDA SACK BRADFORD

One of the key reasons for Sam Bradford’s success this season is his ability to throw passes while standing up right and not on the run. The Oklahoma offensive line has only allowed nine sacks against 442 attempts, allowing Bradford to see use his entire group of receivers and check down to the open player.

AccuScore feels that sacking Bradford is a swing statistic for each team. The Gator defense is projected to sack Bradford twice, but we wanted to see just how important this statistic is. Using the AccuScore Custom Simulator, we re-ran this game and lowered Florida’s defensive production to 1 sack or less, as well as giving the Gators 3 sacks or more.

Because Bradford is so efficient, his ability to stay on his feet alters the game greatly. If the Florida pass rush can disrupt him enough that the Sooner offense can not execute their plays, Florida has 64 percent advantage in simulations. However, if the Sooners continue to protect Bradford as they have throughout the season, then Oklahoma and their high scoring offense makes up 7 percent in simulations and has a slight advantage.