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Florida is the pre-season #1 team in most polls. In Vegas their futures line is 11.0 wins. When you combine a likely win over FCS team Charleston Southern with the 10.6 wins they are averaging vs FBS teams AccuScore gives Florida over a 60% chance of winning more than 11.0 wins. Florida has just under a 10 percent chance of coming under 11 wins with over a 30% chance of a push.

Below is a sample of three teams. You’ll see that we provide the number of games each team plays against FCS teams, the current betting line, AccuScore’s forecasted win total based on the average number of wins in 10,000 simulations and the rough percentage the team has of going over or under. In some cases (like Texas below) where there are little to no difference between the Forecast and Betting line we call the bet a PUSH.

AccuScore has run 10,000 season simulations for the upcoming 2009 NCAA Football Season. Based on initial futures betting lines Winner’s Edge subscribers can read this article to find out which teams have:

1. The best chance of exceeding their posted win total future line
2. Which teams are most likely to fall short of their future line
3. Our over/under pick for Top 25 Teams

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In addition to picks for over 60 different teams the full article includes written analysis of the 20+ teams with the highest probability of going over or coming under the Futures Win Total line. Here’s a sample of what is included:

OVER 75% CHANCE: BOISE STATE

AccuScore is also very high on Boise State to go over 10.5 wins. Boise State may have lost Ian Johnson, but their returning RBs were just as or even more effective per carry than Johnson was. They also have Year 2 of WAC Freshman of the Year Kellen Moore at QB. The team won 12 regular season games last year. In 2009, they have 1 FCS game (vs. UC Davis) and a 13 regular season game schedule. They play Oregon again, but this time at home (they beat Oregon at Oregon in 2008). They go on the road @Hawaii this year, but Hawaii is several years remove from being a threat to Boise State. The only other “tough” game is against Nevada. They beat Nevada last year at Nevada and this year they get them at home. It is understandable why AccuScore would have Boise State repeating their win total from last year at 12 and they have over an 80% chance of winning 11 or 12 games (over 10.5).

UNDER 75% CHANCE: MINNESOTA

Minnesota was a surprise 7 game winner in 2008, but Vegas expects the to take a step back when it set the line at 6.0 in 2009. AccuScore is even more pessimistic with a 4 win projection. In 2008 Minnesota did not play Penn State or Michigan State. This year they play at Penn State and Michigan State. They also play a non-conference game vs. California which is a lot harder game to win than some of their non-conference games last season. The tougher schedule knocks Minnesota down 3 full wins in simulations. You only need the tougher schedule to cost Minnesota 1 more win to get push making the risk of losing the under bet relatively small.

TOP 25 TEAM: OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma’s line is 9.5. In 12 games AccuScore has Oklahoma the underdog in just 1 game (winning 46% vs Texas). The second toughest team they face is Oklahoma State, but that game is at home and Oklahoma is an 80 percent favorite. AccuScore has Oklahoma averaging well over 10 wins per season simulation and Over 9.5 wins seems likely.

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