Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

Twitter @thejonlee

Much of the nation looks forward to picking brackets every March hoping to win a pool and finding the next Cinderella team.  Here are 10 quicks tips to help you fill out your bracket.

1.  Advance No.1 seeds automatically to the Sweet 16.  The last top seed to fail to reach the second weekend was Kentucky in 2004 when the Wildcats lost to UAB by one point.

2. Seeds are the biggest determinant of tournament success.  The top teams are given the higher seeds for a reason.  They have proven over the course of the season to be amongst the best team in the nation.

3. Because of number 2, don’t go crazy with the upset picks.  Pick a few lower seeded teams you like and go with them.  Don’t try and get every upset right by picking every 11 or 12 seed to win.  You won’t win your pool.

4. Twenty-two of the last 24 champions have come from the top four overall seeds.  There’s a reason they’re on the top line.

5. As an extension to number 4, don’t pick a double-digit seed to reach the Final Four.  Stories like George Mason are great because they almost never happen.

6. Two of the top statistics related to performance in the tournament are victory margin and turnover margin.  Both of these stats for every tournament team can be found on AccuScore’s Cheat Sheet.

7. Style of play and match-ups can win teams games.  Look at how teams fared against fast and slow-paced teams, and what kind of defenses they might face down the line.

8. Guard play often dominates March, and often drives underdogs to upset wins in the early rounds.

9. The four factors most overall correlated to winning in basketball are: 1) shooting, 2) offensive rebounding, 3) turnovers and 4) free throws.  This relates to both the offense and defense side of the ball (i.e. creating turnovers and taking care of the basketball, getting to the line while keeping opponents off the line).  Even the best teams have weaknesses among these four factors meaning a bad match-up basic match-up can be spotted using these statistics.

10. College basketball is a notoriously fickle sport.  Anything can happen on a given night, and it usually does during the tournament.  Don’t stress too much about picking teams.  If you like a team, take them.  Luck obviously plays a role every March, just remember to have fun.

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