Denver was dealt a blow when it learned that Carmelo Anthony could miss up to a month with a broken finger.  With the standings so tight out West it seems an inopportune time to loss a star player, but AccuScore thinks the Nuggets should be fine even without their star player.  Analyst Jonathan breaks it down.

Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

Twitter @thejonlee

The situation in the Western Conference is an interesting one this season.  The Lakers appear a cut above the rest of their peers at the top, but the next eight teams have legitimate arguments to be the next best team.  That creates a serious logjam since there will be only room in the playoffs for seven more teams.  Only 3.5 games separate the number two through nine spots currently in the West.

Because of the tight standings, it seems like a huge blow for Denver to lose star Carmelo Anthony for three weeks, possibly up to a month.  The All-Star forward broke a bone in his shooting hand, and opted to sit rather than have surgery and miss even more time.

The Nuggets have 11 games remaining in January, and if the 3 week timetable is correct Anthony could be back for to play in Memphis or New Orleans on the 27^th and 28^th or possibly at home against Charlotte on the 30^th.  If Anthony is out for a full month he could miss up to 15 games.  In the West where teams are bunched so tightly his absence could prove critical.

Denver though does have a few reasons to believe that will be fine in the upcoming weeks, even without its star player.  In fact, AccuScore projects that the team will be fine without Anthony in the lineup with little to no change in their projected season forecasts.  The Nuggets are still projected as the fourth seed in the West with a projected record of 53-29 and a 94 percent chance to make the playoffs.  That trails only the Lakers, Hornets, and Spurs in our current projections.

The Nuggets will play 9 of their next 12 games at home where they have a 13-4 record on the season.  An eight game road trip follows that favorable stretch, but luckily it will begin with Eastern lightweights Oklahoma City and Washington.  Even if the prognosis for Anthony’s recovery is a full four weeks, he should be healthy in time at Miami on February 10.

Smith has had problems in the past,
but is a terrific offensive player.

The team also has two players capable of offsetting the lost production from Anthony: J.R. Smith and Linas Kleiza.  Smith has an odd love-hate relationship with coach George Karl and has seen his minutes fluctuate wildly in the past.  He has played much better of late however upping his scoring average to 15.7 in December while shooting .402 from three-point range. 

The key here is that while Anthony is a terrific scorer, he is not a great jump shooter.  Smith is.  Nearly 65 percent of Anthony shots are jumpers and his eFG% on those shots was just .415.  Smith’s eFG% on jumpers is .509.  Giving Anthony’s long-range shots to Smith would actually improve the production from the wing.  Smith can also finish inside on drives as his eFG% on inside shots is .613 which is actually much higher than Anthony’s .551.  Similarly, Kleiza is a very good offensive player as well with effective field goal percentages of .519 and .619 on jumpers and inside shots respectively.

While neither Smith nor Kleiza are comparable overall players to Anthony, they are both very capable offensively and together should be able to help offset any lost production.  With two capable replacements and a solid team around him led by Chauncey Billups, Anthony no longer has to carry the load by himself in Denver.   A favorable schedule should also allow the Nuggets to remain where they are currently in the playoff race.

*eFG% = effective field goal percentage takes into account the added value of a three-point shot