NBA Rundown Here Comes Portland

Jonathan Lee AccuScore Analyst
View Blog

The Blazers were a nice sleeper pick in the preseason, a young exciting team filled with potential. A nucleus of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge would be adding three exciting rookies in Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, and Nicolas Batum. Add in savvy management headed by general manager Kevin Pritchard, and this was clearly a team built for the future.

Over the past few weeks however, the future has been fast forwarded to the present.After a 104-97 win over the Knicks Tuesday, the Blazers have five games in a row and seven of their last eight. They have outscored their opponents by 12.5 points in their last 10 games. Their 13-6 record has them in the number one spot in the Northwest division along with Denver one game ahead of Utah, and better than every team in the NBA except the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Magic.

Greg Oden is still adjusting to the NBA, but
has help inside with back-up Joel Przybilla.

Portland now has a 93 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs, and is projected to win 52 games. That ranks fourth in the Western Conference, up from AccuScore’s preseason projection of eighth. Clearly the team has already exceeded expectations, and there is room for more optimism. The Blazers have played 12 of their 19 games on the road and will play three more away from the Rose Garden before returning to the Pacific Northwest. Then Portland will play 11 of the next 14 contests at home where the team is currently a perfect 7-0. The young Blazers have already notched quality wins against New Orleans, San Antonio, and Houston, and blew out Miami and Chicago by a combined 80 points.That is the resume of an emerging elite team.

This team is loaded down with weapons with Roy and Aldridge serving as the focal points of the offense. Batum is the token starter, and provides energy and defense to the lineup. Fernandez has been far more effective playing starter’s minutes and making a play for rookie of the year consideration. He has hit a three in every contest thus far hitting 44 shots from beyond the arc at an impressive 43 percent clip. This has been his main role thus far as he has taken just 58 shots inside the arc making 23 but don’t think all he can do is shoot from outside.It is just the role he has been assigned, and he has been filling it very well.

The one player the nation has been interested in is Oden. He is still raw on offense and hasn’t been completely integrated in the offense. The numbers actually show that Portland has been more effective on offense and defense with him off the floor. Oden is clearly not 100 percent recovered from his off-season surgery. The game is still going too fast for him, and yet he is still finding a way to be effective. Oden leads the league in rebound rate (percentage of missed shots rebounded) at 22.4, and is averaging 8.1 points and 1.7 blocks per game.He is shooting 52.5 percent from the field, yet he is finishing just 37 percent of his close shots that are not dunks. That number will only improve as Oden gains experience, and develops his touch and moves in the post. Once he puts it together, Oden will be the monster everybody expects him to be.If he can remain healthy, all signs point to Oden fulfilling his massive potential.

One unexpected source of production has been center Joel Przybilla. The veteran center has ceded his starting spot to Oden, but the move has not reduced his effectiveness. Pryzbilla is shooting an otherworldly 82.0 percent of his shots this season – he’s made 50 of 61 shots mostly on dunks and layups. While it is highly unlikely he keeps up the shooting all year, he should remain a productive player, particularly off the bench.His rebound rateis 21.5, second in the league only to Oden. Przybilla has been an asset on both ends of the floor this year, and should continue to do so while Oden continues to adjust to the NBA game.

While Portland is not quite ready to compete for a league championship, they could be in the mix for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Blazers are already ahead of schedule as a team built for the future that is ready to compete today. All the young talent makes this team one of the most exciting to watch in the NBA.Portland visits Boston on Friday, and will get to test its mettle against the defending champs to see just how good its young team really is.

Trackback(0)

TrackBack URI for this entry