Jonathan Lee    AccuScore Analyst
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After capturing last season’s title and starting the 2008-09 season on fire, the Celtics have finally hit a rough patch.Boston began the year by winning 27 of its first 29 games including a franchise record 19 straight going into the Christmas day game with the Lakers.Talk of the ’96 Bulls and 72 wins were rampant as Boston fans already started penciling in another championship in June.

Since Christmas however, the Celtics have lost four of their last six games failing to break 90 points in any of those defeats.Falling to the Lakers is excusable.Losing to Golden State, New York, and a Brandon Roy-less Blazers is another matter.The lone wins during this lull were over Sacramento and Washington, two of the worst teams in the association.Boston is now tied with Cleveland in the loss column with six, and one game behind L.A. for the best overall record.

So what is wrong with the Celtics?Nothing major if you look at the big picture.Despite the losses Boston still leads the Cavs by one game in the standings, and the Magic by 2.5.Cleveland will also be playing the next month without Zydrunas Ilgauskas so the Celtics should have some breathing room.

What this recent downturn has shown is a blueprint for beating Boston which will be invaluable information for opponents in the playoffs in May and June.The 100-88 loss to the Knicks on Monday was especially telling.New York effectively shut down the Boston offense by using a taller defender (often times it was the 6-11 Jared Jeffries) on Rajon Rondo, and then using that player to double team the post.The double team limited post scoring opportunities while leaving Rondo entirely wide open for jumpers.

Rondo is shooting 52 percent from the field this season so the strategy may seem counterintuitive.However, Rondo gets his points almost exclusively at the rim and at the free throw line.He has made 127 of 205 shots at the rim, but has gone just 23 for 85 everywhere else (useful information that can be found through NBA.com’s hotspots).That means Rondo does not average even one jumper per game.

Leaving Rondo is not the only reason the Celtics have struggled recently.The team has looked a bit fatigued from a long road trip, and the defensive rotations have not looked as crisp as earlier on in the season.Team’s are also learning to force role players like Glen Davis and Tony Allen into uncomfortable situations and exploit their more clear weaknesses.The strategy the Knicks employed will not work every night, and teams will still need to execute crisply offensive to score against the Celtics.But in the playoffs when games are played more often possession-by-possession a true weakness can be exploited by a team with the correct personnel and commitment to defend.

Boston will take on its chief Eastern Conference rival Cleveland on Friday which should provide some more real insight into the current and future state of the Celtics.

The Bucks are surprising playoff
contenders in the East.

SPURS, BUCKS SURGING

Nobody pays any attention to the Spurs and Bucks because of their small market status, but both are on a serious roll right now.Smart observers knew the Spurs would find themselves after a slow start, and they have done just that now that their team is completely healthy.San Antonio has won 14 of its last 17 games including on the road against three of its primary Western rivals: Dallas, Phoenix, and Denver.The Spurs are now leading the Southwest Division, and have the second best record in the Western Conference.According to AccuScore, they also have the third best chance at reaching the playoffs at 94 percent.

It is no surprise that San Antonio is surging behind a healthy Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, but it is shocking to see Milwaukee competing so well out East.The Bucks may be two games under .500, but they have won 8 of 11 including wins over Utah, Toronto, and San Antonio and Miami on the road.Impressive indeed.Milwaukee now has a better than 50-50 chance of reaching the playoffs, and are currently 7^th in the East.The offense has been somewhat suspect, but Scott Skiles has the team playing cohesively and tough every night on the defensive end.That should be enough to earn a playoff spot despite a record near .500.

GAMES TO WATCH

Seven big games to watch over the next week.All game times are Eastern.Cleveland-Boston on Friday should be mandatory viewing for all NBA fans.

1/6 – New Orleans at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 (NBATV)
1/7 – Orlando @ Atlanta, 7:00
1/7 – New Orleans @ Utah, 9:00
1/7 – Detroit @ Portland, 10:00
1/9 – Boston @ Cleveland, 8:00 (ESPN)
1/10 – Detroit @ Utah, 9:00
1/11 – Orlando @ San Antonio, 8:30 (NBATV)