Quantcast Skip to content
NBA Preview: Southeast Division Print E-mail
Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

Orlando is the highest projected team (59.6%) to once again win the Southeast Division. Last year's surprise team, Atlanta, is projected to win 35 games and is only making the playoffs in 38.1% of simulations. Below you'll find complete season forecasts for each team in the division:

ORLANDO MAGIC

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Orlando Magic 50 32 102.7 97.4 59.6% 92.3%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 16% 20% 21% 19% 16% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Is Orlando the team that won 27 road games last year (tied for 2nd best in the league) or the team that won just 25 at home (below average)? Orlando is the heavy favorite to repeat as Southeast division champs. With Washington already dealing with injuries to two starters, the Magic win the division nearly 60 percent of the time. Dwight Howard is forecasted for more eye-popping stats (20 points, 14 rebounds). However, the Magic will take the next step if Howard does a few little things that most may not even notice statistically. If he cuts his turnovers in half (team leading 3.2 last year down to 1.6 this year) and can shoot 67 percent from the free throw line he can help Orlando improve their forecasted margin of victory from 5.3 points to 7.0 points. Every single point in average margin of victory translates to 2 or 3 more wins which can make a significant difference in determining home court advantage. Of course, if Orlando continues to be better on the road than at home then maybe that isn't a good thing.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Dwight Howard 19.9 1.7 14.1 7.0 57.3% 5.8 58.8% 0.0 2.2 0.9
Rashard Lewis 19.7 3.0 6.3 6.6 44.5% 3.9 83.7% 2.6 0.6 1.3
Hidayet Turkoglu 18.5 5.2 5.5 6.3 43.6% 3.9 81.9% 1.9 0.3 1.0
Jameer Nelson 12.0 4.9 3.5 4.5 45.7% 2.1 81.3% 0.9 0.1 0.9
Mickael Pietrus 7.6 0.8 3.5 2.7 45.2% 1.4 66.4% 0.9 0.6 0.7
Keith Bogans 6.7 1.1 2.4 2.3 40.0% 0.9 72.9% 1.3 0.1 0.6
Tony Battie 5.8 0.5 4.2 2.5 48.1% 0.8 66.4% 0.0 0.4 0.5
Anthony Johnson 5.4 3.0 1.6 2.2 43.6% 0.5 76.5% 0.5 0.1 0.6
Courtney Lee 4.2 0.9 0.8 1.5 39.6% 0.7 73.2% 0.4 0.1 0.3
Adonal Foyle 1.8 0.2 1.8 0.8 48.3% 0.2 46.3% 0.0 0.5 0.2
OTHER 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 41.9% 0.1 73.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Washington Wizards 41 41 100.5 100.0 14.5% 62.1%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 5% 14% 19% 20% 19% 15% 6% 1% 0%
For most of the late 80s through the first part of this decade the Wizards were stuck in lottery purgatory. Never bad enough to get the #1 pick (except for when Kwame Brown was the #1 pick), but never good enough to get into the playoffs. Now they are stuck in 'average team' purgatory -- good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to be taken seriously as a contender. The team did nothing in the off-season to improve their defense and injuries to Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood will continue to limit the team's ability to improve. The projected averages for Haywood and Etan Thomas are fairly high, but keep in mind Haywood's are based on the 30 games he will likely play this year. The Wizards are the epitome of average with a 41-41 projected record and an average margin of victory of 0.5 points.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Antawn Jamison 19.7 1.6 8.4 7.4 43.7% 3.3 74.5% 1.6 0.5 1.1
Gilbert Arenas 19.1 4.4 3.3 5.8 40.8% 5.7 82.7% 1.8 0.2 1.3
Caron Butler 16.8 3.8 6.2 6.2 45.6% 3.9 88.0% 0.6 0.3 1.7
DeShawn Stevenson 9.9 2.7 2.6 3.5 41.4% 1.8 75.0% 1.2 0.2 0.9
Nick Young 8.5 1.1 1.8 3.1 43.6% 1.7 79.9% 0.6 0.1 0.6
Etan Thomas 8.5 0.6 7.2 3.4 56.5% 1.7 56.9% 0.0 2.1 0.5
Brendan Haywood 8.3 0.7 6.0 3.1 54.4% 2.0 66.1% 0.0 1.5 0.5
Antonio Daniels 7.6 3.8 2.5 2.5 45.4% 2.4 81.0% 0.2 0.1 0.8
Andray Blatche 5.9 0.9 4.4 2.4 45.6% 1.0 66.8% 0.0 1.2 0.6
Juan Dixon 2.9 0.4 0.2 1.2 44.4% 0.2 84.5% 0.3 0.0 0.2
Darius Songaila 2.8 0.5 0.5 1.2 50.0% 0.3 88.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1
JaVale McGee 2.8 0.3 0.4 1.2 49.2% 0.3 61.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1
WAS Benchwarmers 3.4 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.2 7.8% 0.2

ATLANTA HAWKS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Atlanta Hawks 35 47 97.4 100.2 4.5% 38.1%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 1% 4% 13% 18% 20% 21% 16% 7% 1%
The Hawks might think they are can be a real threat in the East by virtue of extending the Celtics to 7 games, but that series was obviously close because the Celtics did not get it in gear until the Conference Finals. In reality, the Hawks will have a hard time returning to the playoffs with a 38 percent chance. The team acquired Mike Bibby to provide clutch shooting and veteran leadership at PG. However, Bibby was never a great play-maker who made teams better. He is forecasted for a typical 5 assists per game, not exactly reminiscent of Steve Nash or Chris Paul. He is only a 36% three point shooter which is just a shade better than former PG Anthony Johnson's career 35% shooting. Bibby hit huge shots for the Kings 4 or 5 years ago, but if you evaluate him on his numbers and defense he is not a great PG. Joe Johnson is a great player and the team has talented Forwards, but without a great PG and true Center the team is limited.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Joe Johnson 21.2 6.2 4.8 7.5 42.5% 4.3 80.1% 2.0 0.2 1.1
Josh Smith 17.0 3.1 9.0 6.5 42.2% 3.5 70.8% 0.4 3.0 1.4
Mike Bibby 14.1 5.1 3.4 4.9 41.0% 2.7 80.6% 1.7 0.1 1.2
Marvin Williams 13.3 1.8 6.1 4.6 43.1% 4.0 81.8% 0.1 0.5 1.0
Al Horford 10.1 1.6 10.6 4.1 47.7% 1.8 73.2% 0.0 1.0 0.8
Maurice Evans 8.3 1.1 3.2 3.1 44.9% 1.2 75.6% 0.9 0.2 0.7
Ronald Murray 4.3 1.3 0.9 1.7 40.5% 0.7 71.3% 0.2 0.1 0.5
Zaza Pachulia 3.5 0.3 2.3 1.3 46.9% 0.9 75.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3
Acie Law 2.2 0.8 0.5 0.9 40.1% 0.3 80.8% 0.1 0.0 0.3
Speedy Claxton 2.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 36.3% 0.3 64.8% 0.0 0.0 0.8
Solomon Jones 1.8 0.1 1.2 0.7 47.9% 0.4 74.1% 0.0 0.3 0.1
OTHER 0.9 0.1 0.7 0.4 44.4% 0.2 69.1% 0.0 0.2 0.1

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Charlotte Bobcats 31 51 98.6 103.5 1.1% 20.5%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 0% 1% 5% 14% 18% 21% 20% 22% 9%
Charlotte could improve this season with Larry Brown coaching and former lottery pick, Sean May providing much needed interior offense, but the team is not expected to win more games because Eastern Conference teams like Philadelphia and Miami should be better this season. As expected, Raymond Felton is not developing like his rookie classmates Deron Williams and Chris Paul, so the Bobcats drafted DJ Augustin. However, it will take at least 2 seasons for Augustin to get used to the size and speed of NBA point guards and without quality point guard play the Bobcats will be stuck in the lottery. The team is reasonably competitive on a game-by-game level and are only losing by an average of 5 points per game, but they only have a 21% chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Jason Richardson 19.0 3.0 4.9 7.0 41.6% 2.4 72.3% 2.6 0.6 1.2
Gerald Wallace 17.5 2.9 6.2 6.2 44.7% 4.3 70.7% 0.8 1.1 1.8
Raymond Felton 12.5 6.5 2.9 4.5 40.2% 2.7 79.3% 0.9 0.1 1.2
Emeka Okafor 11.6 0.9 9.5 4.6 49.9% 2.4 58.4% 0.0 2.0 0.8
Sean May 10.3 1.9 5.8 3.9 46.4% 2.5 76.4% 0.0 0.7 0.6
Matt Carroll 8.5 1.0 2.7 2.8 41.0% 1.9 85.8% 1.1 0.2 0.7
Nazr Mohammed 6.5 0.6 5.0 2.7 48.5% 1.2 61.5% 0.0 0.7 0.6
Jared Dudley 5.1 1.0 3.5 1.9 44.4% 1.1 73.7% 0.1 0.1 0.7
Adam Morrison 3.4 0.4 0.5 1.4 39.6% 0.3 70.8% 0.3 0.0 0.1
D.J. Augustin 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.9 39.1% 0.3 70.4% 0.2 0.0 0.1
Shannon Brown 2.1 0.3 0.2 0.8 34.6% 0.3 70.6% 0.1 0.0 0.1
OTHER 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 41.5% 0.2 66.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1

MIAMI HEAT

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Miami Heat 43 39 98.7 97.7 19.6% 68.4%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 2% 8% 16% 19% 20% 19% 12% 4% 1% 0%
Dwyane Wade reminded everyone how great he is when healthy during his tremendous Olympic performance. Expect Wade to return to First Team All-NBA levels by averaging 26 points and 8 assists while leading the Heat back into the playoffs (68%, 7th best in the East). The 2nd, 3rd and 4th best player (Udonis Haslem) on the Heat all are Power Forwards, but the versatility of rookie Michael Beasley and Shawn Marion will allow them all to see ample time and put up impressive stats. The Heat's post-season chances have been helped by the injuries that divsion rival Washington has suffered before the season has even started. The wildcard for Miami is Shaun Livingston. He is the starting PG and healthy in simulations. Given his track record of injuries, he could certainly miss significant time.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Dwyane Wade 25.6 7.8 3.9 8.6 46.5% 8.1 78.1% 0.4 0.8 1.6
Shawn Marion 18.4 2.2 7.9 7.4 49.5% 2.5 76.4% 1.2 1.2 1.6
Michael Beasley 17.2 1.5 9.6 6.9 48.7% 2.9 78.0% 0.6 0.8 0.8
Udonis Haslem 10.4 1.4 7.4 4.1 46.4% 2.1 74.8% 0.0 0.3 0.7
Shaun Livingston 8.6 4.8 2.8 3.6 46.0% 1.3 70.5% 0.1 0.5 0.9
Mark Blount 5.7 0.5 2.5 2.3 47.6% 0.9 70.8% 0.1 0.4 0.3
Jamaal Magloire 3.5 0.1 5.1 1.5 50.8% 0.5 52.6% 0.0 0.7 0.3
Daequan Cook 3.1 0.3 1.6 1.2 39.7% 0.2 84.0% 0.5 0.1 0.2
Chris Quinn 2.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 41.7% 0.2 81.7% 0.4 0.0 0.5
Mario Chalmers 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.9 39.2% 0.3 73.5% 0.2 0.0 0.4
OTHER 1.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 40.1% 0.2 75.2% 0.1 0.1 0.3

 

 

Trackback(0)
Comments (7)add comment

Cliff M said:

 		 first time reading this accuscore stuff.. your predictions are horrendous.
October 28, 2008

bankier said:

 		 How can Marcin Gortat not on the list?
If he is to be the second after Battie and before Foyle on the floor!!?
October 28, 2008

Raype said:

 		 Caron will definitely up his numbers with all the washington injuries
October 27, 2008

Adam T. said:

 		 Chris Quinn averaging 2.4 points and 0.5 assists? Even if Livingston were healthy all season, Quinn as the backup would get better numbers than that. Come on. And last I checked Livingtston's chances of being healthy all season is virtually nill. Isn't Quinn slated to start right now? These simulations suck. I won't even get into how Accuscore missed Amir Johnson for Detroit entirely. Where is he in those simulations? He doesn't even show up.
October 25, 2008

Yuki said:

 		 Also, to say Okafor will only get 11.6 points this season is a bit far-fetched.
October 24, 2008

Yuki said:

 		 Ethan Thomas with 2.1 blocks for the season. No way.
October 24, 2008

Jon said:

 		 Only averaging 7.9 rebounds? He had 11.2 with the heat last year, and he has average between 9.3-11.8 for his career(with the exception of his rookie season). Not to mention you have his steals at a career low (which I can see given the tempo change from Pho)! He is playing in a smaller lineup this year so he will surely get more boards.
October 24, 2008

Write comment
quote
bold
italicize
underline
strike
url
image
quote
quote
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley
Smiley

busy
 
< Prev
[ Back ]