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NBA Preview: Pacific Division Print E-mail
Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

The Pacific Division is led by the defending Western Conference Champion Lakers, who are forecasted to win 61 games and have a 81.2% to repeat as Division Champions. They are followed by Phoenix who are forecasted to win 50 games. Below you'll find complete season forecasts for each team in the division:

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
LA Lakers 61 21 110.3 100.3 81.2% 99.6%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 59% 20% 15% 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anything short of an NBA Championship will be a major disappointment for the Lakers. By getting Andrew Bynum back they are essentially adding a player, that would have been the #1 pick in the draft this year had he gone to college for two seasons, to an NBA Finals team. With Kobe and Gasol both demanding double teams there should be plenty of wide open looks as long as the players are sharing the ball well. Expect some high field goal percentages for Gasol and Bynum. Kobe could approach 50 percent if not for his high rate of three point attempts. The Lakers are averaging over 110 points per game and allowing 100 for a tremendous +10 average margin of victory. The Lakers are leading the league in average wins and are a virtual lock to at least get into the playoffs (99.6%). They have a 81% chance of winning the Pacific. If Bynum is healthy they turn one key weakness in last year's Finals (interior defense) into a strength.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Kobe Bryant 30.0 6.8 6.0 9.4 45.1% 9.7 84.8% 1.5 0.5 1.7
Pau Gasol 19.0 3.5 9.3 7.2 55.9% 4.6 76.3% 0.0 2.0 0.6
Andrew Bynum 12.1 1.7 9.0 4.8 59.5% 2.4 66.7% 0.0 2.2 0.3
Lamar Odom 12.0 3.2 9.1 4.5 49.1% 2.6 68.9% 0.5 0.8 0.9
Derek Fisher 9.1 2.6 1.9 3.0 41.5% 2.2 86.3% 0.9 0.1 1.2
Sasha Vujacic 5.5 0.8 1.4 1.9 42.4% 0.7 84.8% 1.0 0.0 0.5
Vladimir Radmanovic 5.5 1.0 2.4 2.0 43.7% 0.5 77.7% 0.9 0.2 0.6
Luke Walton 5.4 1.8 2.6 2.2 46.4% 0.7 72.3% 0.4 0.2 0.7
Jordan Farmar 5.3 1.5 1.4 2.1 44.0% 0.4 70.6% 0.8 0.1 0.6
Trevor Ariza 4.4 0.6 2.3 1.8 51.0% 0.8 62.9% 0.0 0.2 0.7
Chris Mihm 3.0 0.3 2.0 1.2 42.6% 0.6 67.9% 0.0 0.4 0.1
OTHER 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.3 40.8% 0.1 71.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1

PHOENIX SUNS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Phoenix Suns 50 32 111.1 105.9 18.0% 87.3%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 15% 20% 21% 19% 16% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Will the Suns slow it down now that Mike D'Antoni is gone and Shaq is firmly planted at center? Maybe, but you have to figure as long as Steve Nash is PG and Amare Stoudamire can still outrun every other big man in the league, the team would strongly prefer to keep up a fast pace. The Suns are only forecasted for 50 wins which is a considerable drop from the 61 they won in '06-07 and the 55 they won in '07-08. With the Lakers looking like the dominant team in the Pacific, the Suns are only given an 18 percent chance of winning the division. Last season AccuScore forecasted that the Shaq trade would hurt the Suns and their first round exit proved our point. This year could be a major disappointment if Shaq continues to decline in his final seasons.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Amare Stoudemire 23.2 1.1 9.9 8.8 54.0% 5.6 78.6% 0.1 1.9 1.0
Steve Nash 16.6 10.5 3.8 6.0 51.4% 2.6 90.3% 1.9 0.1 0.8
Leandro Barbosa 14.8 3.5 3.1 5.3 44.9% 2.4 82.6% 1.9 0.2 1.1
Shaquille O`Neal 12.8 1.5 8.7 5.1 56.2% 2.6 46.7% 0.0 1.5 0.5
Grant Hill 12.2 2.5 5.2 4.5 48.8% 2.9 80.3% 0.2 0.6 1.0
Raja Bell 11.6 2.5 3.8 4.1 42.5% 1.4 81.9% 2.1 0.3 0.8
Boris Diaw 8.9 4.0 4.8 3.9 50.6% 1.1 71.7% 0.2 0.5 0.7
Matt Barnes 4.5 0.8 2.1 1.7 45.0% 0.4 73.0% 0.6 0.2 0.4
Goran Dragic 3.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 39.6% 0.4 73.1% 0.3 0.0 0.3
Robin Lopez 2.9 0.3 1.5 1.3 51.0% 0.4 61.2% 0.0 0.3 0.1
OTHER 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 40.4% 0.1 70.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Golden State Warriors 27 55 109.2 116.5 0.0% 4.6%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 0% 0% 1% 6% 14% 20% 22% 37% 21%
The Warriors are forecasted to lose a lot of games, but they will at least lose them in fast-paced exciting fashion. One major reason for why Golden State is making the playoffs just 4.6 percent of the time is the stupid injury to Monta Ellis which will keep him out until at least mid-December. The Warriors are expected to allow a ton of points this season. None of the key players, with the exception of Stephen Jackson, have ever shown an willingness to play consistent defense. The problem is not only with the players. Neither GM Chris Mullin or Coach Don Nelson seem to care much about defense and if your leadership is not defensively oriented, how do you expect the team to be? The 2008-2009 Warriors look like a team that exists for the purpose of producing 3 or 4 good Fantasy Basketball options. Corey Maggette, Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis when healthy are well-rounded players who should see consistent minutes.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Corey Maggette 21.4 3.2 6.8 6.2 44.6% 8.3 81.7% 0.7 0.2 1.1
Stephen Jackson 19.7 4.8 4.3 6.4 40.7% 4.7 82.4% 2.1 0.5 1.2
Monta Ellis 18.6 4.5 4.6 7.1 49.4% 4.1 77.3% 0.3 0.3 1.5
Al Harrington 13.6 2.0 5.7 4.9 43.6% 2.2 72.7% 1.5 0.3 0.8
Andris Biedrins 9.9 1.1 9.3 4.3 61.5% 1.4 57.4% 0.0 1.5 0.7
Kelenna Azubuike 8.5 1.0 3.6 3.0 44.6% 1.5 74.2% 0.9 0.4 0.5
Marcus Williams 7.0 3.2 2.3 2.7 38.7% 0.9 82.4% 0.9 0.0 0.6
Brandan Wright 6.0 0.4 3.7 2.5 55.5% 1.0 66.4% 0.0 0.9 0.3
Ronny Turiaf 5.0 1.0 2.8 1.9 48.4% 1.2 71.0% 0.0 1.0 0.3
C.J. Watson 3.7 1.0 0.8 1.4 42.3% 0.7 79.6% 0.3 0.0 0.4
Marco Belinelli 2.9 0.5 0.3 1.1 39.3% 0.2 81.4% 0.5 0.0 0.1
OTHER 1.1 0.2 0.8 0.4 41.5% 0.2 74.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2

SACRAMENTO KINGS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
Sacramento Kings 28 54 102.8 109.6 0.0% 5.4%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 0% 0% 1% 8% 16% 20% 21% 34% 17%
The Kings have players that could be great #2 and #3 options for Championship level teams, but if players like Kevin Martin, Beno Udrih and Brad Miller are your #1, 2, and 3 options then it means you are not going to be a good team. The Kings are forecasted for an average -6.8 point per game deficit because they are allowing nearly 110 points per game. The Kings overachieved with 38 wins last year, but with Ron Artest long gone the team only has a 14 percent chance of hitting the 38+ win mark again this year. Rookies Donte Green and Jason Thompson (stats part of OTHER) are not projected to make a significant impact because they are currently buried on the Kings depth chart. If things do start poorly for Sacramento the perhaps the team will give more minutes to these rookies.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Kevin Martin 22.8 2.4 4.4 6.7 46.4% 7.6 85.7% 1.7 0.1 1.0
Beno Udrih 13.7 5.1 3.6 5.2 43.5% 2.2 85.2% 1.0 0.1 1.0
Brad Miller 11.3 3.6 8.3 4.1 46.8% 2.8 82.2% 0.3 0.9 0.8
Francisco Garcia 11.0 1.8 3.4 3.9 45.0% 2.0 79.7% 1.2 0.7 1.0
John Salmons 10.8 3.0 4.0 4.0 47.2% 2.4 80.1% 0.5 0.4 1.0
Mikki Moore 9.2 1.0 5.7 3.7 58.7% 1.8 71.5% 0.0 0.7 0.6
Bobby Jackson 8.1 2.1 2.6 2.9 39.4% 1.4 78.4% 1.0 0.1 0.9
Spencer Hawes 4.8 0.7 3.3 2.1 45.5% 0.6 64.5% 0.1 0.6 0.2
Quincy Douby 3.9 0.6 0.6 1.5 39.2% 0.5 89.7% 0.4 0.1 0.3
Donte` Greene 3.8 0.7 1.2 1.4 41.1% 0.7 73.5% 0.2 0.1 0.2
Kenny Thomas 2.2 0.4 1.8 1.0 48.2% 0.2 57.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2
OTHER 1.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 42.9% 0.2 70.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

ACCUSCORE SEASON FORECAST BASED ON 10,000 SIMULATED SEASONS
TEAM TOTALS W L PS PA WIN DIVISION PLAYOFFS
LA Clippers 29 53 95.9 102.1 0.0% 7.6%
WINS 60+ 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 21-24 <=20
Win Total Range 0% 0% 0% 3% 9% 17% 20% 21% 30% 14%
It was defense that drove the Clippers to the 2nd round of the playoffs a few seasons back. After the Elton Brand debacle the Clippers did an outstanding job acquiring Marcus Camby along with Baron Davis. However, Davis has a long track record of playing for bad defensive teams and even though Marcus Camby is a perennial defensive player of the year candidate, his former team, Denver, has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Without Elton Brand the Clippers do not have a reliable low post presence. Chris Kaman can average double digits but he turns the ball over way too much for a Center. Trying to get Kaman going often results in stagnation for an offense that should look to run more with athletes like Baron Davis, 2nd year forward Al Thornton, and even Ricky Davis in the mix. The Clippers can significantly outperform this forecast if Baron Davis, Ricky Davis and Al Thornton play good perimeter defense, but recent history indicates that this is unlikely.
PLAYER FORECAST PTS AST REB FGM FGP FTM FTP 3PM BLK STL
Baron Davis 20.6 8.4 4.0 7.3 43.5% 4.2 74.8% 1.8 0.5 1.5
Chris Kaman 14.6 1.8 10.2 5.6 46.0% 3.4 75.5% 0.0 2.1 0.5
Cuttino Mobley 12.4 2.7 3.3 4.5 42.2% 2.4 83.1% 1.0 0.4 1.1
Al Thornton 11.9 1.3 4.2 4.3 41.8% 2.8 74.5% 0.5 0.6 0.6
Ricky Davis 11.8 3.4 3.2 4.3 44.6% 2.1 81.1% 1.2 0.2 0.9
Marcus Camby 8.8 2.8 10.7 3.5 45.2% 1.8 71.4% 0.0 3.1 1.0
Tim Thomas 5.9 1.0 1.8 2.2 41.9% 0.7 72.6% 0.8 0.2 0.3
Jason Williams 4.6 1.8 0.8 1.7 39.8% 0.4 87.8% 0.8 0.0 0.5
Eric Gordon 2.7 0.5 0.4 1.0 40.8% 0.4 73.2% 0.2 0.0 0.2
Brian Skinner 1.9 0.2 1.4 0.9 49.6% 0.2 54.0% 0.0 0.4 0.1
OTHER 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 45.3% 0.2 66.6% 0.1 0.1 0.1

 

 

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