Iverson Billups Trade Impact

Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore’s first reaction to this trade is why didn’t it happen in the off-season? What did both teams realize or learn in the first week of the season that they did not know in the off-season? Wouldn’t it have been better for both players to have at least pre-season to get familiar with their new teams?

How Will Detroit Do Without ‘Mr. Bigshot’?

In Denver, Allen Iverson was not able to get the Nuggets past the first round of the playoffs but he did become a very efficient combo guard significantly increasing his field goal percentage from 40-42% in Philly to 45% in Denver while sharing the ball with 7 assists per game. However, Iverson’s defense is sub-par. He averages a lot of steals, but playing passing lanes is just one part of playing defense. Pistons GM, Joe Dumars was one of the greatest SG defenders in history, but he averaged under 1 steal per game in his career.

The question is Iverson’s scoring worth more to Detroit than Chauncey Billups’ superior 3 point percentage, free throw percentage and individual defense?

DETROIT PISTONS	W	L	DIV	PLAYOFF
Before Trade	52	30	59%	96%
After Trade	49	33	49%	92%
DIFFERENCE (+/-)	-3	+3	-10%	-4%

Based on 10,000 season simulations the Pistons are doing worse with Allen Iverson. The big reason is the drop-off in three point percentage and increased turnovers. Allen Iverson and Rodney Stuckey are both low three point percentage shooters. They also are forecasted to average 5 turnovers between them. The combo of Stuckey, pre-trade, and Billups were forecasted for 30% fewer turnovers per game. Billups is also a superior free throw shooter. Even though Iverson is a very good 80% free throw shooter, he is not as clutch closing out a game like Billups.

ALLEN IVERSON	PTS	FG%	FT%	3PM	3P%	REB	AST	STL	TO
Before Trade	24.6	44.4%	80.0%	1.0	32.6%	3.3	7.3	1.7	3.3
After Trade	19.4	45.8%	80.6%	0.8	32.9%	2.5	5.2	1.4	2.7

RODNEY STUCKEY	PTS	FG%	FT%	3PM	3P%	REB	AST	STL	TO
Before Trade	10.1	43.9%	83.1%	0.1	25.3%	3.0	3.5	1.0	1.7
After Trade	13.6	43.4%	83.7%	0.2	25.3%	4.3	4.5	1.0	2.3

Can Chauncey Billups Get Denver Into the Playoffs? Get Past the First Round?

After being a dominant one man show in Philadelphia, no one doubted if Allen Iverson was a star player. Chauncey Billups is a lot better than the young PG shooting 36 percent for Denver in 1998-2000, but there may be some questions whether Billups’ career was significantly boosted by playing with a number of great, unselfish players like KG in Minnesota and all the great Pistons in Detroit. Chauncey Billups elevated his teammates’ play and his teammates elevated his play. Can Chauncey Billups be an All-Star playing with players with less than stellar reputations in terms of being unselfish?

DENVER NUGGETS	W	L	DIV	PLAYOFF
Before Trade	39	43	8%	36%
After Trade	42	40	14%	49%
DIFFERENCE (+/-)	+3	-3	+6%	+13%

The three game decline by the Pistons is a three game boost to the Nuggets. The combo of Billups and JR Smith after the trade combine for 4.2 turnovers, down slightly from the 4.5 that Smith and Iverson were forecasted for.

With Billups, Denver has a superior three point shooting backcourt. Allen Iverson may average more assists but he does it dominating the ball. Billups has a far higher assist rate which is defined by how many assists a player has per ‘touch’. Chauncey Billups’ three point shooting and assist to turnover efficiency makes Denver a better team in simulations.

CHAUNCEY BILLUPS	PTS	FG%	FT%	3PM	3P%	REB	AST	STL	TO
Before Trade	15.3	43.5%	89.3%	1.5	37.8%	3.2	6.1	1.1	1.9
After Trade	15.7	42.2%	89.1%	1.6	37.5%	3.5	6.3	1.1	2.1

J.R. SMITH	PTS	FG%	FT%	3PM	3P%	REB	AST	STL	TO
Before Trade	10.6	44.5%	77.9%	1.7	38.8%	2.5	1.6	0.8	1.2
After Trade	15.6	45.8%	78.0%	2.5	40.1%	2.8	2.6	0.6	2.1

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HuEs said:

Detroit is trash

November 18, 2008

smiley...Ü said:

finally,, a superstar in Pistons

November 09, 2008

m15525 said:

I am not sure...maybe its too early in the season.... and there have been so many coaching and personnel changes that the simulations don't have enough game data to accurately simulate the scores.

My question is how many games need to be played for the simulations to start becoming more accurate in each sport?

November 04, 2008

Goose0707 said:

Can someone explain what these simulations really mean? While accuscore has done pretty good in NFL, NHL and MLB it has started out horrendous this year in NBA. Maybe the model needs some tweaking, let's see an article about what's going on.

November 04, 2008