Stephen Oh - AccuScore Analyst

Prior to their crushing first round loss to Golden State in the ’06-07 playoffs Dallas was THE team to beat with the best record in the league. The Chicago Bulls were THE up and coming team in the East finishing with 49 regular season wins. The Bulls then upset defending champ Miami in the playoffs. It is a little more than a full season later and both of these teams no longer seem like significant threats to even make the playoffs.

Dallas is 2-5 and winless at home. AccuScore expects Dallas to finish the season over .500. The Mavericks are currently averaging a record of 45-37 in 10,000 season simulations (http://accuscore.com/nba/tools/team-win-forecasts/). They have a 65 percent of making the playoffs which is only 9th best in the Western Conference.

Chicago is 3-5 and finishing the season with a projected record of 33-49. AccuScore simulations give the Bulls a 27 percent chance of making the playoffs which is OK for a team rebuilding around Derrick Rose, but it is very disappointing for Bulls fans who just 18 months thought they would be competing for a championship this season.

Where Has the Defense Gone?

Both the Mavericks and Bulls dumped their coaches in the off-season. Avery Johnson and Scott Skiles have 3 things in common:

1. They were hard-nosed, undersized, tough point guards
2. They were defense-first head coaches
3. Their teams tuned them out last season.

Back in 2006-2007 when both Coaches were firmly in control of their teams the Mavericks and Bulls were two of the 6 best defensive teams in the league in terms of points allowed. Now in ’08-09 the teams are in the bottom half of the league in this key statistic. Dallas is 20th in the league, Chicago 17th.

The players on these teams may be happier not to have a coach constantly harping on their defensive lapses. However, many of the core players on both teams are unchanged since ’06-07. When focused, they can be top notch defensive teams and to not be this season indicates the players are simply not focused on the defensive end. The players may be more relaxed but fans should not be satisfied with them dogging it on defense.

Dallas With Slight Edge

In preliminary simulations Dallas is actually getting the slight edge winning 53 percent of the time with an average score of Dallas 99, Chicago 97. Fantasy owners will be happy with some of the forecasted stat lines:

Dirk Nowitzki – 27 points, 9 rebounds, 1.2 three pointers per simulation

Jason Kidd – 11 points, 1.7 three pointers, 8 rebounds, 9 assists

Ben Gordon – 21 points, 2 three pointers

Derrick Rose – 18 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists

But the lack of good defense results in both teams scoring more than they current average. Bulls fans should get plenty of highlights from the dynamic rookie Derrick Rose, but Dallas has the better chance of raising their road record to a respectable 3-2.

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