Tim Williams - AccuScore Analyst
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The Rays hit a slump, losing five out of six games this past week.  Combine that with Boston taking five out of six games against Baltimore and Texas, and you have a much closer division race compared to last week at this time.  The Red Sox have made up four games in the standings, and improved their chances of winning the AL East by 23 percent.  The two teams meet in Boston for a three game series to start the week, with the winner of this series playing a huge factor in this race.

Keys for Tampa Bay:  The Rays’ rotation remains solid, posting a 4.59 ERA in the last week, with Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and James Shields combining for a 2.77 ERA.  The big problem in Tampa Bay is the state of the bullpen.  The Rays’ bullpen allowed 14 runs in 20.1 innings this past week, and allowed two inherited runners.  The offense has averaged a little over three runs a game in the last week, which really puts the pressure on the starting rotation when the bullpen is allowing a little more than two runs per game.

Keys for Boston:  Josh Beckett returned on Friday to pitch five shutout innings, allowing four hits, no walks, and seven strikeouts against the Rangers.  Beckett hasn’t been himself this season, posting a 4.20 ERA, and allowing 18 runs in 22.1 innings in his previous four starts before going on the disabled list.  Beckett will make his second start in game three against the Rays on Wednesday against Andy Sonnanstine.

Last week at this time the Twins were down by half a game, and had a 62.1 percent chance of winning the AL Central.  Minnesota went 1-5 last week, while the White Sox went 3-3, putting two more games between the teams, and giving Chicago the edge in simulations.  Minnesota’s schedule should be easier this week, with three games against Kansas City, and three more against Baltimore.

The loss of Carlos Quentin will be a huge hit to the White Sox, but the impact might be avoided if Paul Konerko can continue to step up.  Konerko is hitting .377 with five homers over the last month, easily being the top producer for Chicago’s offense over that stretch.

The two teams meet for a three game series on September 23^rd.  Minnesota will be returning from a ten game road trip, while that series will mark the last three games of Chicago’s ten game road trip.

Keys for Chicago:  John Danks and Gavin Floyd have been keys to Chicago’s success this season, combining for a 25-14 record.  Danks has been struggling recently, with a 4.41 ERA over the last month.  Sunday’s start could be a sign that Danks is coming out of his slump, as the White Sox pitcher went 5.1 innings against the Angels, allowing five hits, one walk, two runs, and striking out seven.  Paul Konerko continues his hot streak, batting .417 with three homers in the last week.  With Carlos Quentin out for the season, Konerko needs to continue stepping up to help the White Sox down the stretch.

Keys for Minnesota:  The Twins bullpen has been a wreck this past week, allowing 14 runs in 15.2 innings for an 8.04 ERA.  The starting rotation has been solid, allowing a 4.10 ERA in the last week, with Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey combining for a 3.37 ERA.  The offense has also been solid, averaging almost five runs per game over the last week.

The only thing left for the Angels to do is to make it official.

Boston’s 51.5 percent chance of winning the wild card is low due to their tight race with the Rays.  The loser of the AL East race will make the playoffs as the wild card team, assuming Minnesota or Toronto don’t go on an amazing run.  There is only a 1.8 percent chance of this happening for Minnesota, and a 3.3 percent chance of Toronto coming back from eight games out, which is heavily due to seven games remaining against the Red Sox.

The Mets swept the Brewers, but lost two of three against the Phillies over the weekend.  The series win was huge for Philadelphia, and they would be in a better position in this race if it wasn’t for losing two of three against the Washington Nationals early last week.  This past weekend’s series will be the last time these two teams meet this year.

Philadelphia plays 15 of their final 19 games against NL East opponents, with their other four games coming against the Brewers.  The Mets have a similar schedule, playing 15 of 19 games against NL East teams, but playing their final four games against the Cubs.  With the similar schedules, and Philadelphia two games back, the Mets are holding on to the division in 61.7 percent of simulations.

Keys for New York:  Carlos Delgado has been hot over the last week, batting .348 with three homers, including two key homers in the second game of Sunday’s double header, helping the Mets avoid a sweep against Philadelphia.  Jonathan Niese struggled in his first start against the Brewers, allowing five runs in three innings.  A favorable schedule for the Mets means that New York won’t need a fifth starter until September 16^th against Washington, putting more space between starts for Niese.

Keys for Philadelphia:  Joe Blanton was brought in at the end of July to help the Phillies in their playoff stretch, but has done a horrible job since.  Blanton’s four runs allowed in four innings against the Nationals last week is just another poor start for the Phillies’ starter.  Blanton has won just one game since joining Philadelphia, putting up a 4.34 ERA in that time span. 

Milwaukee lost five out of seven games last week, but actually improved by half a game in the standings thanks to the Cubs losing five out of six games.  The Cubs have now lost seven out of their last eight games, and are currently in the midst of a nine game road trip, playing the Cardinals and the red hot Astros in the next week.

Milwaukee got a scare with Ben Sheets going down with an injury last Monday, but Sheets returned strong on Saturday with a complete game shutout.  Milwaukee has six games remaining against the Cubs, with three of those games coming next week in the middle of a ten game road trip.

Keys for Chicago:  Carlos Zambrano might return to the rotation next weekend, and while his impact isn’t huge for the regular season, the Cubs will need him for the playoffs.  Early last week AccuScore looked at the impact Zambrano had on the Cubs.  The Cubs are still winning the division in the majority of simulations without Zambrano, but see their chances of winning a five game playoff series drop from 65 to 57 percent.

Keys for Milwaukee:  Milwaukee’s offense struggled this past week, barely scoring more than two runs per game.  Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, and Mike Cameron have all struggled in the last week, combining for just 12 hits in 67 at bats.  C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets have been the only reliable pitchers for the Brewers lately, which would seriously hurt Milwaukee if Ben Sheets went down with an injury.

The Dodgers are on an eight game winning streak, including six wins last week to surge from two and a half games back to a one and a half game lead in the NL West.  The key to this playoff race was the weekend three game sweep the Dodgers pulled over the Diamondbacks.  Los Angeles beat Arizona by a combined score of 19-5, capitalizing on strong performances by Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe.

The two teams don’t meet for the remainder of the season, and with each team playing a relatively easy schedule, the Dodgers have a 75.5 percent chance of winning the NL West.

Keys for Arizona:  Randy Johnson is experiencing shoulder issues, which caused him to miss Sunday’s game against the Dodgers.  Max Scherzer pitched well in place of Johnson, going five innings, allowing three runs and striking out 11 batters.  With Brandon Webb and Dan Haren struggling the last few weeks, Arizona will need young starters like Scherzer and Yusmeiro Petit to step up.

Keys for Los Angeles:  The key to the Dodgers’ recent success has come through the pitching staff.  The Dodgers have allowed 18 runs in their eight game winning streak, an average of just over two runs per game.  Chad Billingsley and Derek Lowe combined for 14.1 shutout innings against the Diamondbacks this past weekend, while Greg Maddux made it to the sixth inning in his last two starts, allowing two earned runs in each outing.

The Brewers have just a 26.8 percent chance of winning the NL Central, but are almost a lock to win the wild card, making the playoffs in 90 percent of simulations.  The Cardinals have the best chance of winning the wild card, but their chances are slim at just 5.4 percent.