Author: Chris Mitchell, Staff Writer
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set is one of the most common, sane ways to do this, but you can’t project touches and targets without looking at the opponents they will face. The schedule is one of the most underappreciated and underutilized places to find value, upside and at the very least, scoring security. The matchups determine a player’s price, and it’s almost the entire focus of Daily Fantasy discussions, so we all understand the importance of the schedule in Daily Fantasy, yet it is ignored in season-long league discussions.
I am not suggesting that the schedule should be the primary factor in projecting a player’s performance, but when a schedule is disproportionately overloaded with good or bad matchups it behooves you to consider it.
In 2016, the New England Patriots faced one of the weakest groups of quarterbacks I have ever seen on a full 16-game NFL schedule. Carson Palmer, wilson/">Russell wilson, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill twice and Joe Flacco were the marquee opponents. In 2017, they face Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and on the road against Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, quarterbacks who perform much better at home than on the road. It would be ridiculous and incompetent to ignore the schedule when projecting the Patriots defense this season.
In many cases, the matchups, both good and bad, balance out over a 16-game schedule and the effect is relatively impact-neutral, but that’s not always the case. Doug Baldwin was the sixth-highest scoring wide receiver in Fantasy Football in 2016. When looking at his skill set, the “measurables,” does he strike you as a Top 10 wide receiver? Baldwin scored only six fewer Fantasy points than Julio Jones and the schedule certainly had an impact. Baldwin had seven games against the five worst ranked defenses in Fantasy Points allowed to wide receivers, all of which allowed 39 points per game or more. He has an even friendlier schedule in 2017.
Here are a few players that have an overly lopsided advantage or disadvantage on the 2017 NFL schedule.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans led all wide receivers with 171 targets in 2016. AP Photo/Chris O’Meara
In 2016, every team in the NFC South division allowed 36 Fantasy points or more per game to wide receivers. In 2017, they face their division rivals twice each and the NFC North, which has three teams (Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and Chicago Bears) that allowed 38 FP or more per game to wide receivers. They also face the AFC East, which has the Miami Dolphins who allowed 37.7 Fantasy points per game to wide receivers and a Buffalo Bills team that recently embraced what looks like a full rebuild by trading their best cornerback and their best wide receiver. That means that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (36.1 FP allowed), Atlanta Falcons (38.2 FP allowed), Carolina Panthers (38.9 FP allowed) and New Orleans Saints (38.7 FP allowed) have at least 10 games against opponents that allowed 36 Fantasy points or more per game to wide receivers.
All four NFC South starting quarterbacks have the ability to exploit the weak defenses on their 2017 schedule and there are many good wide receivers that deserve a good look on those teams, but a line had to be drawn, so here are the players I am targeting.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Evans is the consensus fourth-best wide receiver in Fantasy drafts, and he has an ADP as the seventh player overall, so it isn’t about upside or draft day value as much as the security that Evans provides owners; something extremely important from a first round pick
Evans has never played less than 15 games, he has never had a season with less than 1,000 receiving yards – including his rookie year – and over the last two seasons, he had 1,206 and 1,321 receiving yards. He has scored 12 touchdowns in two of his last three seasons and he was the overwhelming Fantasy leader in targets for 2016. Combine all of that consistency with all of those targets and an even easier schedule and you have a player that is a much safer, better value than the other elite wide outs. Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones are more explosive, but Mike Evans is a target and red zone monster. Jones plays a similar schedule and has a higher ceiling, but constant injury concerns have me leaning towards the less risky, safer Evans.
Evans has increased his receiving yards and receptions every season of his career and in 2017, I project a career year once again. It will be difficult to improve on 12 touchdowns, but he can match it along with 1,400 yards and 110 receptions for an offense I expect to explode in 2017. My bold take, if I was prone to make such pronouncements, is that Evans is the 2017 WR of the Year, ahead of the explosive law firm of Brown, Beckham and Jones. I may be sued for slander during draft season but I will be strolling to the bank with my league checks in January.
Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Baldwin was the eighth ranked wide receiver in 2016 with 253.6 Fantasy points in PPR leagues, two fewer points than Michael Thomas, and only six fewer points than perennial Top 5 pick Julio Jones. Baldwin has seven games against defenses that averaged 39 Fantasy points allowed per game, and four more games against defenses that allowed 36 Fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2016. Baldwin has two games against Rams and one against the Packers, defenses that allowed 47 receiving touchdowns combined, making them the two worst ranked teams in receiving touchdowns allowed.
He is currently being drafted as the 12th wide receiver, 27th overall, and has arguably the most beneficial schedule of any wide receiver in football. The only thing preventing Baldwin from being the best second tier wide receiver in football in 2016 were his seven touchdowns. The elite wideouts had 10-14. With 12 touchdowns rather than seven, Baldwin would have ranked fifth behind only Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr in total points. Baldwin can attain 95 receptions, 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2017, making him a draft day value based on his current ADP, and a safe pick due to his extremely friendly 2017 schedule.
Honorable Mentions
DeSean Jackson, New Orleans Saints
I am not usually a fan of “all of nothing” type receivers like Jackson, but he is being drafted as the 34th overall wide receiver, after lesser receivers like 2016 Redskins teammate Jamison Crowder, who doesn’t have anywhere near the explosive potential. At ADP #88, Jackson is an intriguing value playing for a high-powered offense, and the schedule only enhances his appeal.
Six games against division rivals that allowed 38 FPPG and 48 touchdowns to wide receivers is a plentiful opportunity for Jackson to finish 2017 with 1,000 receiving yards and 6-8 touchdowns.
Ted Ginn, New Orleans Saints
Ginn is being drafted as the 53rd wide receiver, 148th overall. He has the exact same skill set as DeSean Jackson, which isn’t all that different than what Brandon Cooks brought to the Saints for three seasons as their big play receiver. Between Thomas and Cooks there were 239 targets, and if you include Willie Snead there were 343. Ginn was brought in to replace Cooks and should run his deep routes, making Ginn a potential late round bargain because of his situation and the prosperous potential of a porous 2017 schedule. Ginn is a deep league and late round pick kind of player because he may not top 50 receptions or 800 receiving yards, but those numbers along with 6-8 touchdowns make him viable depending on the makeup of your league. Ginn could reach 170-190 Fantasy points in 2017.
Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings play a total of 12 games against nine teams that allowed 35.9 Fantasy points or more per game, amounting to 466.5 total points to wide receivers in 2016. Like Thomas and Cooks in New Orleans, Diggs and Thielen split the production, so both were viable Fantasy contributors. They scored 193 and 195 Fantasy points respectively in 2016 and have an easier schedule in 2017. Thielen is being drafted 134rd overall, while Diggs is being drafted 71st, making Thielen the better late round value to take advantage of a friendly 2017 schedule.
Diggs had more receptions, while Thielen was more explosive and had more receiving yards and touchdowns. Neither finished 2016 with 1,000 receiving yards but I expect both to break that ceiling in 2017. If they can increase their touchdown production, then both have a chance to finish the season with 220 Fantasy points in PPR leagues, making them both Top 25 players at their position. The schedule makes them safe picks to produce with the upside to be difference makers if things click. Diggs is the Fantasy community pick to click, but I like Thielen because he is more explosive and he is being drafted much later than Diggs
Tight Ends
The Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins, and New York Giants were three of the 12 worst defenses in Fantasy points allowed per game to tight ends in 2016, at 13 points or more per game. The AFC North had two teams in the Top 5 and three teams that allowed 13 Fantasy points or more per game.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have nine games versus opponents that allowed 13 Fantasy points or more per game to opposing tight ends, and they have five games against defenses that allowed 14.9 points (Redskins twice), 15.5 points (Panthers once), and 18 points (Cowboys twice). They also have their final three games during the Fantasy playoffs against the Giants (13.6 points allowed), Raiders (13.9 points allowed) and Cowboys (18.0 points allowed), making Ertz a strong draft day selection or a good target for a trade deadline deal. He is currently being drafted 97th overall as the 10th tight end off draft boards.
Ertz had back-to-back seasons with 800-plus receiving yards and 70 receptions in 2015 and 2016, and there is no reason to think he can’t match that once again, especially considering the beneficial matchups he will have in 2017. The place where Ertz has some upside is touchdowns; he has never had more than four in a season. He is a safe bet to be a Top 10 tight end with a beneficial opportunity to rank in the Top 5.
Honorable Mentions
Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals
He is one of the elite talents at the position and you have to use a Top 75 pick to acquire him, which is why he is an honorable mention and not a target. He has four games against the Browns (17.2 FPPG and 13 touchdowns allowed in 16 games) and Steelers (13.4 PPG allowed) and two games against the Lions (15.1 PPG allowed and 10 touchdowns allowed) and Colts (13.9 PPG allowed). There are reasons to avoid Eifert, but the schedule is a reason to like him.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, New York Jets
The Jets are a mess at quarterback, but they have a friendly schedule for tight ends. Since their entire wide receiving corps departed via free agency, the Jets opened up a huge number of potential targets for Seferian-Jenkins in 2017. I wrote him up as a sleeper target in my previous “Targets and Touches” article, here is a part of what I wrote;
“The Jets have six games against defenses that ranked 10th or worse against the tight end. They face the Miami Dolphins twice (14.2 Fantasy Points allowed per game to the tight end), Oakland Raiders (13.9 FPPG), Cleveland Browns (17.2 FPPG), Atlanta Falcons (14.6 FPPG) and the Carolina Panthers (15.5 FPPG). If those 2016 numbers hold close in 2017 then Seferian-Jenkins will be in a position to receive the majority of those 75 tight end points in only six games. If he can score 75 points in those games and another 75 in the other 10 games, that would make Seferian-Jenkins a Top 10 tight end. Even if he falls short, he will still be a Top 15 tight end who should be available in the final five rounds, if not on the waiver wire after your draft. That’s draft-day value based almost entirely on his potential touches and targets without hypothesizing about his skill set at all. That’s just the Fantasy math.”
Running Backs
The NFL South not only struggled to cover wide receivers in 2016, but they struggled to stop running backs both on the ground and through the air. The Saints and Falcons both allowed 27 FPPG to running backs while the Buccaneers allowed 24.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
I don’t typically advocate that owners chase rookie upside, but the combination of the schedule and the skill set makes Christian McCaffrey a perfect fit for Carolina in his first NFL season.
McCaffrey has six divisional games against teams that allowed 24.2,27.4 and 27.8 FPPG to running backs, but when you go inside the numbers that’s where McCaffrey really benefits. The Saints allowed 868 receiving yards (54.25 yards per game), 85 receptions and five touchdowns to running backs. The Falcons allowed the most receiving yards to running backs in football in 2016 (870 receiving yards – 54.37 YPG), the most receptions (109) and six touchdowns, while the Buccaneers allowed 708 receiving yards (44.25 YPG), 72 receptions and three touchdowns. McCaffrey will also face the San Francisco 49ers (31.1 FPPG) and Buffalo Bills (25.6 FPPG). That’s eight games against teams that allowed 25 or more Fantasy points to running backs and a ninth game against the Patriots, one of the stingier defenses in Fantasy Points allowed to running backs, but who ranked third-worst in receiving yards allowed and second-worst in receptions allowed to running backs.
McCaffrey’s current ADP is 30th overall as the 14th running back off the draft board, but he isn’t being drafted before any of the top pure runners or best multi-faceted “run and catch” running backs like Lamar Miller. He isn’t going to outrush fellow rookie Leonard Fournette, who is being drafted nine spots earlier, but 500 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, 65 receptions and five touchdowns is a reasonable expectation. That would make McCaffrey’s 2017 season better than the 2016 seasons of New England Patriots RB James White and comparable to Atlanta Falcons RB Tevin Coleman.
An argument can be made for Cleveland Browns lead running back Isaiah Crowell, who is being selected side by side with McCaffrey, but the friendly schedule and the upside make McCaffrey a much more intriguing risk/reward selection that justifies his current ADP. If the Panthers are serious about reducing Cam Newton’s rushing attempts, especially in the red zone, it’s McCaffery who should be the biggest beneficiary and the schedule assists in his chances of maximizing those opportunities.
Honorable Mention
Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ three division rivals allowed 24 FPPG or more in 2016. The Bengals allowed 2,187 total yards (136.6 YPG) to running backs, the Steelers allowed 2,239 total yards (139.9 YPG), while the Browns allowed 2,551 total yards (159.4 YPG) in 2016. He also faces the Colts (25.6 FPPG) and Chargers (26.6 FPPG).
Woodhead relies on receptions and receiving yards for his viability and the schedule suggests he will be in a good position to have both most weeks, making him a viable Flex option. A reasonable projection is 40-50 receptions and 750-800 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, leaving room for more in 2017. In 2016, that would have been better than Theo Riddick and James White, comparable to Jeremy Hill and within striking range of Tevin Coleman and Lamar Miller. As a late round pick in PPR formats’ that’s a risk worth taking and the schedule enhances his projection.
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