the year. Here’s a look at the injuries and recovery times facing pitchers starting the year on the DL with our take on when they will be Fantasy-relevant again.
IRC = Injury Risk Category (Low, Elevated, High)
HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor)
ORT = Optimal Recovery Time
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
ORT: 15 weeks
For the second year in a row, the Giants will be without their ace for an extended period of time. Last year Bumgarner missed three months following a dirt bike accident that caused a grade 3 AC sprain in his left shoulder and bruised ribs. Now, Bumgarner is expected to miss two months recovering from a pinky fracture. Unfortunately, our analytics show that he really needs closer to 15 weeks, not eight, to fully recover. While the pinky is the least important finger for a pitcher, the slightest bit of pain or discomfort can cause a slight change in pitching motion, and that’s all it takes for an ace to become just an average pitcher.
Bumgarner did need to undergo surgery to have three pins inserted in the pinky, a sign that this was a displaced fracture that essentially shattered the bone. If it was a simple fracture and no surgery, he could have returned in around eight weeks and been successful right away. Instead, he is looking at a much longer, more complicated recovery time. He won’t be the consistent top of the rotation pitcher we have come to know until around the All-Star break.
IRC: High
HPF: Above Average
As Rodriguez continues to recover from knee surgery, the Red Sox were forced to place him on the DL to start the season. He underwent patellofemoral ligament reconstruction last October, which comes with a lengthy recovery time (26-30 weeks). Before surgery, he was pitching at less than 100 percent as he often felt like his kneecap was going to pop out. Now that won’t be an issue, but this does come with some lingering concerns. The knee will be much more stable than it was pre-surgery, but soreness and inflammation in the knee could pop up. He is also at a higher risk now of associated injuries (think hamstring strain, patellar tendinitis, etc.)
Rodriguez started in a few minor league games and his knee responded well, so we could see him join the Red Sox rotation in mid-May if all continues to go well. With an Above Average HPF he should pitch well, but his Injury Risk remains High.
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Early in Spring Training the finger injury that bothered Santana last season re-appeared, so he elected to undergo surgery in February. It was a capsular release procedure to the middle finger. This comes with a recovery time around 8-12 weeks and has fairly positive long-term results, but we still may not see him until May. As of last week, he was still unable to grip a baseball, although his recovery remains on track. If you have a DL spot he’s worth the stash.
IRC: High
HPF: Poor
Britton is going to miss the first 2-3 months of the season following offseason surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles. Britton was injured while working out in December. He started throwing again in February and was out of the boot by March and appears to be ahead of schedule. That means a return in June is realistic if he can continue to progress without any setbacks. The tricky part of his recovery will be throwing off the mound. As a lefty, he puts a lot of stress on that right leg when he lands on his follow through.\
Complete list of @MLB pitchers with more 2018 strikeouts than Max Scherzer:
… pic.twitter.com/nsw7tQWCgn
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) March 30, 2018
IRC: Low
HPF: Below Average
Jeff Samardzija says he hasn’t missed a practice or game due to an injury since the seventh grade, and he has never landed on the DL in his 11-year career. Well, that’s going to change. Samardzija is starting the season on the DL after suffering a pectoral strain during a Spring Training start. He said the injury started with a lack of mobility in his shoulder, and it showed as his velocity dropped nearly five mph. He tried anti-inflammatories, but that didn’t help. After finally undergoing an MRI last week, he was diagnosed with the pectoral strain. That comes with a four- week Optimal Recovery Time, so he should be healthy enough to rejoin the Giants’ rotation in late April. He was expected to pick up a ball for the first time on Wednesday, but there’s no word yet on how his throwing session went. This isn’t a long-term concern, but the Giants are having a rough start to the season without Samardzija and Madison Bumgarner on the mound.
IRC: High
HPF: Above Average
Pomeranz is starting the season on the DL as he continues to work his way back from a forearm strain. He is progressing well and was even able to pitch in a minor league game over the weekend. What’s concerning is that Pomeranz had a flexor strain and a triceps injury last season, so he has a troubling history of arm problems. Even though he is on track according to our initial Optimal Recovery Time, he remains a High Injury Risk. He can’t be trusted on Fantasy rosters right now.
Other Pitchers to Watch:
Mark Melancon SF: forearm surgery
IRC: High
HPF: Above Average
The Giants finally decided to place Melancon on the DL to start the season. He had surgery in September following a series of forearm injuries last season and then had a setback last week. For now, Melancon is limited to playing catch, and his long-term outlook isn’t good due to his troubling injury history.
Danny Salazar CLE: right shoulder inflammation
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Above Average
It didn’t take long for Salazar to have trouble with his pitching arm. Last season, he had shoulder and elbow issues, and now he is slowed by shoulder inflammation. He is expected back in mid-April, but Salazar can’t be trusted. He has had too many concerning injuries with his pitching arm.
Luiz Gohara ATL: groin strain & ankle sprain
IRC: Low
HPF: Peak
Gohara was expected to start the season in Atlanta’s rotation, but a groin strain then an ankle injury has slowed him throughout spring. He will start the season on the DL but has hit our Optimal Recovery Time for his injuries. He shouldn’t miss more than a few weeks.
Dinelson Lamet SD: flexor strain
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
Lamet gave the Padres a huge scare when he left the mound last week with pain in his pitching elbow. He has since been diagnosed with a flexor strain, which is relatively good news considering the initial fear was a season-ending elbow injury (possible UCL tear). Our analytics show that he should still miss the first month of the season, but it shouldn’t take much longer than that for him to get healthy.
Adam Wainwright STL: hamstring strain
IRC: High
HPF: Below Average
Wainwright was scheduled to start the Cardinals’ second game of the season but instead, he has landed on the DL with a hamstring strain. This comes with a short two-week Optimal Recovery Time, so he shouldn’t be out long. Still, he remains High Risk due to his injury history that includes a torn Achilles and multiple elbow surgeries.
Anthony DeSclafani CIN: left oblique strain
IRC: Elevated
HPF: Below Average
The Reds sent DeSclafani to the 60-day DL, so he won’t return before June. It’s a pretty serious oblique strain he is dealing with, and he will essentially be forced to restart his throwing program once it is fully healed (which is going to take at least five weeks according to our algorithm).
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Madison Bumgarner Photo Credit: AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
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