This is the second set of Fantasy Football players that will lose you a championship chance if you draft them. In case you missed the first group, I talked about the top
Fantasy Football quarterbacks and running backs that shouldn’t be on your teams… my Fantasy Football do not draft list if you will. This time, it’s the Top 10 receivers and tight ends that won’t only bust at their draft cost, but as I said, lose you your leagues. Most of these players have ADPs as reasons behind the “hate,” and for that, I used FantasyPros.com and FantasyFootballCalculator.com with a standard scoring setup for reference.
Wide Receivers
Kelvin Benjamin, CAR – How is Benjamin’s ADP still at WR21? I am honestly surprised by this because it feels as if half of the Fantasy world has been talking about the risk in draft Benjamin. What risk you ask? Benjamin was WR17 as a rookie with 145 targets. Only four of the receivers with more Fantasy points in 2014 had more targets. Benjamin caught just 73 of his targets, finishing with 1,008 yards and nine TDs. Going back to the target count, we again only had four receivers with more yards and targets than Benjamin did. The other 15 receivers (Benjamin was 20th in yards) all had less targets. Benjamin is an inefficient receiver. Sure, the touchdowns are appealing, especially with Cam Newton throwing 35 last year, but expecting Benjamin to see 145 targets again is a mistake.
Devin Funchess is growing as he heads into his second season, and Ted Ginn showed there is still some gas in the tank. No receiver on the Panthers saw more than 96 targets last year (Ginn), and Greg Olsen led the way with 123. Even if you want to give Benjamin those 123 targets as the team’s top option, which would cut his numbers to around 62/725/7 on his same rate of success. To draft Benjamin as a borderline Top 20 receiver is counting on a lot working in his favor and against the statistical success rate.
Julian Edelman, NE – Edelman has one 16-game season to his name. Just one. That happens to be the only season where Edelman topped 100 receptions or 1,000 yards. Edelman was pacing towards a career season last year, but that was largely due to his touchdown rate. Edelman’s career high in touchdowns was six before last year, when he had seven in nine games. Expecting Edelman to repeat that level of scoring success with no Tom Brady for four games and Martellus Bennett now in the mix is a mistake. And counting on Edelman playing 16 games or to be your WR2 (ADP of WR18 in standard) is an even bigger one.
Gordon’s draft cost prevents you from building a team that can absorb his risk. Photo Credit: Aaron Josefczyk/Icon Sportswire
Josh Gordon, CLE – Nostalgia often makes things better than we remember. Sure, Gordon’s 2013 season was amazing, but should we so casually dismiss 2014? Gordon managed just 24 catches, 303 and no touchdowns in five games. People want to blame the quarterback situation, aka Brian Hoyer, but Gordon played with Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden the year before, and Hoyer didn’t hurt DeAndre Hopkins much. Let’s not dismiss the importance of the other factors as well: Robert Griffin‘s play at quarterback (if RG3 even makes it 16 games), Gordon’s year-plus away from the game and the Browns’ offense and chemistry developed during the first four weeks without Gordon. That’s plenty of risk associated with Gordon, which would be fine if he was your WR4, but he can’t be. How do I know this? Because you insane people are drafting him in the mid-fifth! Over the weekend, Gordon’s ADP went from end of the fifth round to 5.05-5.06 and will probably keep rising. It’s one thing to draft Brady with his pedigree and lack of questions; it’s a completely different situation drafting Gordon at this cost.
Tyler Lockett, SEA – As is the theme with the majority of this piece, the price is the main issue. I’m a fan of Lockett and his talent, so this will be more along the lines of Gordon and not Benjamin. What I’m not a fan of is Lockett’s price or his situation. Lockett’s ADP is WR34 and has been in the Top 35 for weeks. As I continually preach, you don’t want to buy all of the risk in Fantasy Football. Drafting Lockett as your WR3 leaves some room for return value but not much… not when his offense doesn’t use receivers consistently.
The Seahawks are a different breed. Well, really Pete Carroll is just a different breed. He’s Bizarro Belichick in that he plainly tells us what he’s going to do, but he also ignores the typical depth chart usage. I guess in that fashion, he does have a bit of Belichick to him. The No. 2 receiver role in Seattle means little. Unlike most teams, that doesn’t mean you’re on the field for every two-receiver set… and that’s even if you were the clear No. 2, which Lockett is not. The Seahawks brought back Jermaine Kearse on a decent contract, and he will see time as the No. 2. The team also still likes Paul Richardson and will give him opportunities. In fact, both receivers saw more early work and snaps than Locket did in the Seahawks’ Week 3 preseason game. If Lockett was guaranteed true No. 2 receiver work, I’d be just fine with his ADP, but he’s not, and with the resulting inconsistency, I want no part of him as my WR3.
Tavon Austin, LA – Do you really want to count on a receiver that nearly had as many rushing yards as receiving? How about a receiver who set career highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns with 52/473/5? Yawn. Oh, and this receiver has Case Keenum as his quarterback. Don’t throw the rushing upside of Austin at me either. He won’t see 3-4 carries a week with a full season of Todd Gurley in the backfield. Even if Austin somehow, someway repeated last year, he still only had four games with more than 8.8 Fantasy points. You can leave that for your DFS lineups.
Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI – It’s not so much Green-Beckham’s ADP that’s the issue by itself; it’s who is behind him. The Titans obviously tired of DGB with the conditioning issues and lack of progress in route running, etc. and sent him to Philly. While there is more opportunity for Green-Beckham with the Eagles, especially with Rueben Randle and Chris Givens cut, he’s learning a new offense and is surrounded by lesser talent, including his quarterback. DGB’s former teammates, Rishard Matthews and Tajae Sharpe are behind him in ADP, as are Tyler Boyd, Terrance Williams, Pierre Garcon, Will Fuller and more. There are players with guaranteed production just waiting for you to take them, and yet, you all keep drafting DGB anyway.
Breshad Perriman, BAL – Will he ever get on the field? Even if Perriman does, can he be anything more than Mike Wallace, who just happens to be on the team and impressing a bit this preseason. Steve Smith is coming back from a significant injury, but he is coming back and is Steve Smith, and Kamar Aiken is a high quality, consistent option for this offense. Even if Perriman gets on the field, where is the opportunity? Maybe if Wallace wasn’t on the team, Perriman could be their deep-option receiver, but with Wallace in the fold and Perriman offering little more in the skill department, there isn’t much reason to roster Perriman in 2016.
Tight Ends
Tyler Eifert, CIN – Ever notice how every report in the preseason is “this guy looks great” and “player X will be ready for Week 1”? Every year we tire of the overly positive talk, yet we aren’t hearing any of it with Eifert. That should concern you. Eifert could miss the first four weeks of the season; heck, he could miss more than that. Asking Eifert to repeat last year’s touchdown success (25 percent of his receptions went for touchdowns!) was already an unreasonable request, but now we have an offense that will have the entire offseason and four regular season games playing without him. Will Eifert see the same red zone love? Will the Bengals use or need him the same as last year, especially when factoring in two new receivers and Hue Jackson off in Cleveland now? As with Gordon, there are a myriad of concerns and questions that make Eifert a huge overpay at his ADP, which happens to be TE7, 76th overall still!
Zach Ertz, PHI – Are we really doing this again? So Ertz does little in 2014, shows up late in the season, gets some love for 2015, doesn’t top 6.9 Fantasy points until Week 14, goes off for four games and then has owners gushing over him again for 2016. Come on guys, let’s be a bit smarter. Ertz had one game with over five catches and no games over 68 yards until Week 14 and not one game with both happening until Week 15. Those last few games definitely helped win some leagues, but putting Ertz at TE9 with Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates and others behind him is buying all of the risk.
Jimmy Graham, SEA – I don’t need to nor will go into much depth here. Victor Cruz just finallyreturned to game action for the first time in nearly two years, but we’re pretending Graham can return from the same injury (torn patellar tendon) in less than a year? On top of that, Graham wasn’t exactly putting up TE1 numbers before his injury. Graham averaged just 6.6 FPPG with 605 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games last year. Yet, Graham is the 12th tight end off the board and going in the 10th round ahead of Torrey Smith, Corey Coleman, Willie Snead… ah, I could keep going, but I’d be naming about 100 players before I even thought about Graham returning from this injury. Just stop the madness.
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