Author: Matt Rumack
Join AccuScore now using the code SALE50 for $50 off an annual All-Sports premium membership. For all others this is $349, but as you are reading this article, it is only $299... Join Today
Horschel took Jason Day down in a playoff after the two remained locked up after 72 holes. Horschel’s game has been streaky this year, but he reminded us on Sunday that he can beat the biggest stars in the game when he’s right. The PGA Tour stays in the Dallas area for another week for the Dean & Deluca Invitational. (formerly the Colonial)
There are some decent players to pick from this week, but overall, the field is a bit lighter than last week. Two Top 10 players, Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia, will be there. Rookie sensation Jon Rahm will try to bounce back from his 82 at the Players, which caused him to miss the cut after round three. Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, and 2017 Players Champion Si Woo Kim will be teeing it up this week. A handful of 2017 Tour winners will vie for their second win of the season in Adam Hadwin, Brian Harman, Wesley Bryan and last week’s champ, Billy Horschel.
Paul Casey has a good shot at a Top 5 finish in the Dean & Deluca Invitational. Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire
This is the second year that this tournament goes by the name of the Dean & Deluca Invitational. However, we have years of history to look at in terms of who’s played this tournament well, no matter what the name. For the second straight week, the tournament will feature a Par 70 layout. The yardage is relatively the same, so for the second straight week Par 4 birdie percentage will be a key statistic with twelve Par 4s and only two Par 5s. More specifically, Par 4 scoring between 400-450 yards will be a stat that should correlate well this week with Colonial having seven holes in that range.
The course winds its way through pecan trees along with several water hazards to avoid, meaning that players must hit their tee shots in the right spots to have a clear shot in and/or to stay dry. This makes strokes gained off-the-tee an important stat to look at when selecting players this week. Hitting greens is no gimme here, so try to get players who hit a high percentage of greens in regulation. Three of the four Par 3s at Colonial are between 190 and 200 yards, and I suspect a good number of shots on the Par 4s will be coming in from around 175 yards or so. So, golfers who excel in shots from 175-200 yards, and players who rank highly in birdie or better percentage in that range, will be valuable this week.
DFS Golf Picks for the Dean & Deluca Invitational
Paul Casey ($10,200) – Over his past six starts, Casey has finished in the Top 22 five times. He scored only one Top 10 in that stretch, but when you’re always somewhere around the Top 10 or 20, it may only take two or three strokes to find yourself in the Top 5. Casey gains strokes in every category except putting. He ranks 10th in GIR %, seventh in Par 4 scoring, and 30th in Par 4 birdie %. Casey gains a whopping 1.3 shots per round from tee-to-green. As always with a player like that, a few putts from 15-20 feet go in, so Casey will end up in contention.
Jason Dufner ($9,000) – Dufner is also around the Top 10 or 20 in most tournaments this year. He has eight Top 25s this season, but zero Top 10s is an interesting statistic. However, Dufner is trending in the right direction, and this is a course where he has played well before. In 2012, I recall watching this tournament (the Colonial then) and it was literally Zach Johnson and Jason Dufner for the entire Sunday broadcast. They had pulled so far away from the field that it was pointless to show anyone else. They both shot over par and still Dufner wound up four shots clear of third place in his runner-up finish to Johnson.
Tony Finau ($8,700) – If not for a rough start on Thursday, Finau could have easily won the Byron Nelson, as he shot 11 under for the final three days last week. Finau has incredible ball-striking stats. He ranks fourth on Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee, gaining nearly a shot per round. He is also 17th in strokes-gained on-the-approach, fourth in shots-gained tee-to-green, 21st in Par 4 birdie %, and eighth in proximity on approaches from 175-200 yards. Finau has some pretty good finishes here, with a Top 40 finish last year and a Top 20 in 2015. He is playing the best golf of his career in 2017, but he needs to start out of the gate better. Friday through Sunday he averages in the 69 range, while on Thursdays he averages 71. If Finau can get off to a good start, he should have a great week since he tends to get better as the week goes on.
Chris Kirk ($8,200) – Chris Kirk has had a rough year. So hopefully, his T-12 at the Players has him headed in the right direction. Kirk is one of the best on Tour in Par 4 scoring (13th), and he averages more than four birdies per round. His problem this year is that he’s giving back far too many of those birdies. He hits a lot of greens (35th in GIR%) and gains strokes on the field putting. It’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together. Kirk won this tournament in 2015, so this could be the place for him to get his mojo back.
Kevin Tway ($7,100) – Kevin Tway is running really hot right now. He’s emerged in the past few weeks with two Top 10s and a Top 20 finish last week. Tway is beginning to step out of his father’s shadow and make a name for himself on Tour. He is very solid off the tee (23rd in strokes gained off-the-tee) and is ninth in proximity from 175-200 yards. There should be a good number of shots from that distance this week including three of the Par 3s. Despite his recent play, DraftKings has kept him in the low $7,000 range, and he’s been playing more like an $8,000-$9,000 player of late.
Martin Laird ($6,600) – Martin Laird has flown under the radar this season, but he’s actually been a pretty sure bet to make the cut for a guy at his price. (9 of 11 this season) Statistically, he has no flaws, as he gains strokes in all the major categories. He is in the Top 40 in Par 4 scoring average, strokes gained tee-to-green and strokes gained approach-the-green. He’s played pretty well at Colonial over the years as well making the cut four of his last five times on this course, including two T-10s in 2010 and 2011.
Listen to the only FREE 24/7 Fantasy Sports Radio channel on the go! Get the FNTSY Sports Radio Network app now in the iTunes store or on Google Play. Listen to Cincotta and Engel, the RotoExperts in the Morning, Fantasy Best Friends Forever and the award-winning On Target. Plus a whole lot more from all of your Fantasy favorites for FREE!